I’ve already written up my pick and prediction here for tonight’s much-ballyhooed Subway Series rubber match. Some additional analysis on this game, too, in our best MLB bets of the day here at DKN. But it’s undeniable that Max Fried (6-0, 1.11 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) is the guy tonight. And that’s tough to do when you’re on the same team as Aaron Judge. Let’s evaluate Fried’s best prop bets on the market for tonight’s game between the Yankees and the Mets.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Best Max Fried prop for Subway Series rubber match
Max Fried to record a win (+125)
Fried’s been practically unhittable. Batters have a .189 batting average against him, and, over his last four starts, Fried’s ERA is a jaw-dropping 0.72. All year long he’s managed to keep hitters off balance with a 23% strikeout rate. For that reason, he’s a nightmare for this Mets lineup, within whom four batters have over a 24% strikeout rate against Fried (more on that later). The Mets do generally hit lefties well, however, to a .252 batting average.
Mets’ David Peterson’s been too fortunate with that 79.8% runners left-on-base rate so far this season. His 4.41 xERA isn’t going to cut it against this Yankees lineup, with their wRC+ of 150 and a .517 slugging percentage against lefties this season.
Fried, Judge, the entire lineup against lefties—it’s all an uphill climb for the Mets tonight. Fried gets to 7-0, here.
Ladder bet: Max Fried to record 8+ strikeouts (+310)
Feel like climbing a ladder with me? Fried’s curveball and sweeper are among the two most devastating pitches in the league. The former averages 6.1 inches of vertical break and 1.6 inches of horizontal break (knee-breaking), and the latter averages 9.0 inches of vertical break and 3.5 inches of horizontal break (back-breaking).
There’s a pedigree here, too. From my best bets column:
This lineup whiffs hard against Fried. Pete Alonso has struck out 33% of the time in 36 at-bats against Fried; Brandon Nimmo, 41% in 27; Juan Soto, 33% in 27; Jeff McNeil, 19% in 31; Francisco Lindor, 21% in 28; and Starling Marte, 24% in 21.
Let’s climb this from six strikeouts (-130) to eight for the three-to-one value. Fried’s only crossed that threshold twice this season, but the Mets might get swing-happy under the lights on the road tonight. Again—the pedigree.
