Let’s dive into this Sunday Night Baseball Subway Series matchup—it’s a must-win rubber game for both teams, and the stakes are high. The Yankees are in a bounce-back spot after their narrow loss on Saturday, while the Mets, fueled by a strong bullpen and gritty offense, will look to seal the series. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Sunday baseball game between the Yankees and the Mets.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Yankees vs. Mets prediction, preview
Max Fried has been the Yankees’ ace and a bona fide Cy Young contender this season. His 6-0 record, 1.11 ERA, and a minuscule 0.94 WHIP make him one of the toughest pitchers in the league. He’s been practically unhittable, holding batters to just a .189 batting average. Over his last four starts, Fried’s ERA is a jaw-dropping 0.72, and he’s managed to keep hitters off balance with a 23% strikeout rate. He’s a nightmare for this Mets lineup, especially considering their struggles against lefties.
David Peterson, on the other hand, has been serviceable but far from elite. His 3.05 ERA is decent, but his xERA of 4.41 hints at inevitable regression. Peterson has been hard-hit 51.9% of the time, and while his strikeout rate (8.7 K/9) is solid, he’s been fortunate in stranding baserunners, holding a career-high 79.8% LOB rate. Against the Yankees’ explosive offense, particularly their lefty-mashing power, Peterson will face an uphill battle. The Yankees lead the league in wRC+ (133) and slugging (.481) and have been a dominant force against southpaws, sporting a wRC+ of 150 and a .517 slugging percentage against lefties this season.
The Mets have been solid on the mound, sitting atop the MLB with a 2.89 team ERA. However, their offense has been inconsistent, ranking 12th in runs per game (4.60), and they’ve struggled in low-scoring games against elite pitching. With Fried on the mound, it’s unlikely the Mets will have much offensive support, especially considering their recent scoring troubles. They’ve averaged just 3.5 runs over the past week. Pete Alonso’s 37 RBIs are tied for fourth in the league, and his .308 batting average highlights his elite consistency at the plate. Lindor has nine home runs and a .290 average, so Fried will have legitimate work to do. The Mets, as a team, do hit lefty starters at to a .252 batting average.
The Yankees’ lineup, though, is a different animal. Aaron Judge leads the way with a ridiculous .402 average, 15 homers, and 41 RBIs, and the offense has been a juggernaut at home, ranking second in the league in runs per game. Judge ranks first in the MLB in OBP (.496), and his .287 ISO is otherworldly. The Yankees have a clear edge offensively, and with Fried shutting down the Mets’ attack, this game feels like it’ll be a relatively low-scoring affair.
Mets vs. Yankees pick, best bet
The Yankees are 8-2 in their last 10 at home against winning teams, and Fried is on fire. He’s won six straight starts against NL opponents, with the Yankees taking eight of his last nine outings. The Mets, however, have dropped 11 of 12 on the road after a win. The Yankees thrive after losses, boasting a 7-3 record in their last 10. With Fried’s dominance and New York’s home advantage, they’re poised for a convincing win today.
Take the Yankees to cover the -1.5 run line, as they should win this game by multiple runs. The total is set at 8.5, but given Fried’s dominance and the Yankees’ shutdown bullpen, I’m leaning toward the under. A Yankees 4-2 victory seems like the most plausible outcome here.
Best bet: Yankees -1.5 (+120) vs. Mets
Fried continues his Cy Young road tonight—tail it with me in the DKN betting group here!
