Saturday is another jam-packed day of rivalry matchups in Major League Baseball. Every team is in action, providing plenty of ways to get in on the action on DraftKings Sportsbook. Home run props are always one of the most fun markets each day and draw plenty of action. Let’s take a look at the matchups and environments and highlight some of the best home run props for this Saturday. Today, I’m highlighting Shohei Ohtani, Elly De La Cruz and Josh Naylor.
By their very nature, home run props are long-shot bets, but they are also some of the most fun to hit when they go off. Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here are my top three home run props for Saturday, May 17.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Shohei Ohtani to record 1+ home runs (+195)
Ohtani went yard again on Friday night and is up to 16 homers on the year to lead the majors. He has eight home runs in his last 11 games and has been absolutely teeing off on everything with a 69.4% hard-hit rate and a 36.1% barrel rate. He has 13 barrels in those 11 games, giving him plenty of power to produce home runs.
Ohtani was also in my picks on Friday and delivered a blast even in the Dodgers’ disappointing defeat. He had a good matchup against Jack Kochanowicz in that game, but he has another good matchup on Saturday, even though it doesn’t look like it at first.
He’ll take on lefty Tyler Anderson, but as I covered in my MLB stacks, lefties have had success against Anderson this year. Ohtani has hit Anderson hard in the past and is on a whole different level right now. It’s not as much of a long shot as I normally target, but Ohtani is so dialed in that his greatness is hard to pass up.
Elly De La Cruz to record 1+ home runs (+380)
De La Cruz and the Reds host the Guardians in the battle for the Buckeye State at Great American Ball Park, where the wind is forecast to be out to left at 10 miles per hour. Great American is already hitter-friendly, but with some extra juice, De La Cruz looks like a great value in the game that gets underway at 6:40 p.m. ET.
Elly has eight home runs on the season, with three in his last six games. Six of those eight home runs have come off of righties and five have come at home, where he has a .298 batting average and .401 wOBA.
He and the Reds have a good matchup against Guardians’ starter Slade Cecconi, who will be making his first start of the season. Last season, Cecconi gave up 16 homers in 77 innings, spread across 20 games in the rotation and out of the bullpen for the Diamondbacks. He had a 6.66 ERA and 5.02 FIP and allowed plenty of power to both lefties and righties. In his three minor league rehab starts, he did not give up a home run, but I think Elly and the Reds have a good shot to get to him on Saturday in Cincy.
Josh Naylor to record 1+ home runs (+425)
Let’s go back to the NL West for another matchup where we should have some home runs. The Dbacks take on the Rockies and face German Marquez, who has given up 36 runs in 37 innings. He has only given up four home runs, but all four have come in his 19 2/3 road innings. He posted a 10.53 ERA and 5.25 FIP in those road innings.
Naylor has gone 3-for-9 with a pair of home runs in his past career matchups against Marquez, and he has been hitting the ball well lately. He comes in with an eight-game hitting streak during which he hit his fifth homer of the season.
He has at least one hard-hit ball in each of those eight games and a 35.7% hard-hit rate overall during his streak. Naylor only has five homers on the year, but in the hitter-friendly environment of Chase Field, he offers good value this Saturday night.
