Friday night starts the first MLB Rivalry Weekend with all 30 teams in action. The Cubs and White Sox start things in the Windy City in the afternoon, and the final matchup of the night comes from the left coast as the Athletics return to the Bay Area and take on the Giants. With so many great games to enjoy, it should be a great night of hardball. One fun way to get into the action is by hunting some home run props to target on DraftKings Sportsbook to start the weekend with a bang. Today, I’m highlighting Shohei Ohtani, Jose Ramirez and Jonathan Aranda.
By their very nature, home run props are long-shot bets, but they are also some of the most fun to hit when they go off. Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here are my top three home run props for Friday, May 16.
Best Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Shohei Ohtani to record 1+ home runs (+155)
Ohtani tied Kyle Schwarber and Aaron Judge for the MLB lead in home runs with two more ding-dongs last night on his bobblehead night against the Athletics. He is up to 15 homers on the season, and eight have come in his last 12 games.
In his last 18 games, he has an incredible 77.4% hard-hit rate with a 35.8% barrel rate with over 1.0 barrel per game and an average exit velocity of 100.3 miles per hour. To put it simply, he’s crushing everything and piling up home runs like when he was at his best last season.
The Dodgers have a juicy matchup against Jack Kochanowicz, as I explained in my MLB stacks. Kochanowicz has a 5.23 ERA, 5.56 FIP, and 1.49 WHIP and has allowed seven home runs and a 46.1% hard-hit rate over his eight starts. Six of those seven homers were hit by left-handed batters like Shohei, so everything lines up for him to keep crushing.
You won’t ever get a “lock” in home run props, but there are so many strong indicators for Shohei that getting him at plus money feels like a good deal.
Jose Ramirez to record 1+ home runs (+280)
In the early game, the Guardians visit homer-friendly Great American Ball Park and take on the Reds’ and Brady Singer. Ramirez has a great history against Singer from before he joined the Reds. The Guardians’ slugger is 12-for-27 (.444) with three home runs in their past meetings.
Ramirez has eight homers on the season, including one in each of his last two games. He has a 53.6% hard-hit rate over his last nine games with three homers.
Since it should be a good environment for long-balls, there are several Guardians who make good targets for home run props, but given his past success against Singer, Ramirez is my call in this matchup.
Jonathan Aranda to record 1+ home runs (+500)
The Rays have a good home run matchup against Max Meyer on Friday night even though they’re on the road in Miami. Meyer has given up is 2-4 on the season and has given up eight homers in his eight starts with a 48.8% hard-hit rate against. Six of his eight home runs allowed have been at Marlins Park and five have come in his last three starts.
Aranda is my favorite Rays home run option since he has six long balls on the season and has an excellent 57.6% hard-hit rate. He had a rough day on Thursday, going 0-for-5 with four strikeouts, but he had hit safely in seven straight starts before that, including two homers.
Meyer has been equally hittable by both lefties and righties, but Aranda has been hitting the ball well enough all season to like him at these +500 odds to go deep on Friday night. I usually like to take a big swing for the fences in the third of my home run props picks, and Aranda is my top long shot of the night
