Sunday Night Baseball this week is a great series finale between the Padres and the Astros in Houston. The Padres came into this series as the best team in baseball, but the Astros won back-to-back close games Friday and Saturday. In the Sunday Night Baseball showdown contest on DraftKings, can the Padres bounce back and get back in the win column or will the ‘Stros close out the sweep? Let’s look at some overall strategy for the Astros vs. Padres MLB DFS.
The pitching matchup for Sunday Night Baseball has the potential to be a great one. Dylan Cease ($11,600) will square up against Framber Valdez ($11,200). Both are well-established veterans at the top of their teams’ rotations and should give us a low-scoring, competitive finale to the series that has been that way throughout. The over/under for the game on DraftKings Sportsbook is just 7.5, and the Astros are slight favorites at -115.
Let’s take a look at what to expect and how to attack this Astros vs. Padres MLB DFS matchup from a DraftKings Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $70K Relay Throw [$20K to 1st] (SD @ HOU).
Astros vs. Padres DFS Showdown Strategy
Captain’s Pick
Fernando Tatis Jr. ($14,400): Tatis is the most expensive non-pitcher in this matchup, but he still deserves consideration since he has been so excellent to start the season and can contribute big fantasy games in a variety of ways. Tatis had his seventh home run and seventh stolen base of the season on Saturday on his way to 24 fantasy points in the Padres’ loss.
On the year, he’s averaging 12.9 fantasy points per game while hitting .351 with a .451 wOBA. His batted ball metrics are even stronger than his results, giving him a .485 xwOBA. He has at least seven fantasy points in three straight and in six of his last eight while averaging 15 fantasy points per game.
Cam Smith ($6,300): An alternative way to build your lineup for Sunday night’s Astros vs. Padres DFS contest is to go super cheap with your Captain’s Pick and stack up stars in UTIL spots. Taking Smith in your Captain’s Pick spot allows room for stacking both pitchers and Tatis if that’s the way you want to go.
Smith brings a good ceiling as your captain since he is finding a nice rhythm following a slow start after being vaulted all the way to the majors within a year of being drafted. Smith has nine hits in his last nine games, going 9-for-31 with three home runs, a stolen base and a .394 wOBA. In those nine games, he has averaged 9.4 fantasy points and had a high point of 32 fantasy points on Friday night when he opened the series against San Diego with the first multi-homer game in his career.
UTIL Plays
Dylan Cease ($11,600): While including both pitchers is a strong option if you go cheap with Captain Cam, if you’re picking just one starting pitcher, Cease has the slight advantage. He has been very strong in three of his four starts, with his one down outing coming in hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park. He bounced back with a good outing against the red-hot Cubs, earning 16 fantasy points in a no-decision his last time out. Especially since the Padres do such a good job of strikeout suppression, he’s a better play than Framber in Sunday’s showdown.
Isaac Paredes ($7,600): Paredes played hero against the Padres on Saturday night, going 2-for-3 with the game-winning RBI and 12 fantasy points. Over his last eight games, he is averaging 10.0 fantasy points per game with three games of double-digit fantasy points. He’s in a premium lineup spot, hitting second in the Astros’ order and should find a way to stay hot and contribute solid production at this midrange salary.
Oscar Gonzalez ($3,600): I highlighted Gonzalez earlier this week as a value play, and he’s in the lineup hitting fifth at this bargain salary on Sunday night. The 27-year-old has played nine games since being called up to fill in for Jackson Merrill (hamstring) and is 6-for-22 (.273) with a 52.6% hard-hit rate. His .301 xwOBA shows he has hit the ball harder than results have shown, and getting him in a prime lineup spot at this bargain rate is a great way to stretch your salary. In the minors, he had three homers and a .431 wOBA in seven games. He also opened some eyes with a big spring training, hitting .400 with a .437 wOBA in 21 Cactus League games.
Fades
Yordan Alvarez ($8,600): I’m a huge Air Yordan fan, but I just can’t pay up for him at this salary in this matchup. He’s hitting just .215 with two homers and an average of 6.3 fantasy points this season and has gone 1-for-7 in the two games in this series. He is also just 2-for-16 in his career against Cease with eight strikeouts and no extra-base hits.
THE OUTCOME
This matchup may not have a lot of scoring with two strong starting pitchers, and based on the series so far, it will likely be close and hard-fought. For Astros vs. Padres DFS matchups, it makes sense to build around Cease and Tatis with Smith as a Captain’s Pick if you want to go high-risk or included as a UTIL play with a high ceiling.
Both teams are playing well, but I think the Padres do just enough to avoid the sweep and get back in the win column on Sunday Night Baseball behind a big game from Cease.
Final Score: Padres 3, Astros 2
