Readers of my columns here at DKN will know how in I am on DeVonta Smith I am for this game. I believe in Pro Football Focus’s highest-graded cornerback Trent McDfuffie (83.9) to do enough work on A.J. Brown that Jalen Hurts will need to feed the Slim Reaper over the top of Justin Reid for some long receptions. There will, of course, be plenty of Dallas Goedert, too. But, when it comes to my Super Bowl 2025 best bets, prop bets, and novelty props, DeVonta Smith is my top pick.
Here are my other pieces in which I’ve referenced some of my favorite bets to target for DeVonta Smith:
- Super Bowl 2025 receiving leader picks and best bets: A.J. Brown, Travis Kelce, or a sleeper?
- Super Bowl Sunday Prediction & Pick: Who will be DraftKings’ King of the End Zone?
- A.J. Brown Super Bowl 2025 Cheat Sheet: Prop Bets and DFS Analysis (in which I mention fading Brown)
- My colleague Griffin Wong’s DeVonta Smith Super Bowl Cheat Sheet: Prop Bets and DFS Analysis
Needless to say, our analysts here at DraftKings Network have been all over Smith’s markets this week. Here’s why I like him to score a touchdown on Sunday.
Analysis
Let me start by saying: when it comes to almost all of the advanced receiving metrics out there, A.J. Brown edges DeVonta Smith by just a little. But, again, I think the Trent McDuffie/Justin Reid double-team effect on Brown might free up Smith to be a zone-beater. That’s where he’s undisputedly the Eagles’ most prolific receiving threat:
But [a McDuffie blanket/Justin Reid double-team] would leave Smith lined up against Jaylen Watson, or potentially-but-less-likely Chamarri Conner. And this is a clear advantage for a healthy DeVonta Smith, whose championship pedigree speaks for itself. In Super Bowl LVII, Smith caught seven balls for 100 yards, and no touchdowns. That, of course, was the ultimate downfall of the Eagles in the loss two years’ ago: an inability to convert in the red zone.
Everyone’s all over Dallas Goedert’s yardage props in this game—and for good reason—but I think I’ve talked myself into loving the Slim Reaper as my primary touchdown scorer pick for the Bowl (other than Barkley). He’s the better zone-beater than Brown, historically. Smith has 157 targets since 2022 against zone; Brown has 146. DeVonta leads the Eagles with over 700 yards against zone coverage in 2024. If Smith catches the Chiefs’ safeties with a double-move on a go route, it might be moonball time.
Playoff Reaper
Those are all regular season stats. When you look at Smith’s postseason stats from this ’24-’25 playoff run, he’s actually doing creating considerably more production with his own skillset as opposed to simply receiving easy completions from Jalen Hurts. Slim has a 16.3% catch percentage over expectation (CPOE), while A.J. Brown has a -0.1% CPOE.
However, Brown’s gotten more targets than Smith (18 to 12), so the production looks skewed. But Smith has been absolutely elite at creating separation at the catch-point; he averages 5.0 yards to Brown’s 2.1. And you better believe McDuffie is gonna help keep that number right where it is, or shrink it even more for no. 11. It’s that ability to create separation that gives me hope that Smith will break off for a long touchdown.
Bottom Line:
Lastly: DeVonta Smith leads the Eagles in yards per target (10.1) and EPA/tgt (0.72) this postseason. He’s been their most valuable receiving threat by far, and has the one-on-one matchup advantage against the Chiefs on Super Bowl Sunday. I’m backing the pedigree, here, and taking the almost three-to-one value on these promising opportunity metrics.
Best bet: DeVonta Smith Anytime TD Scorer (+265)
Tail Slim Reaper to hit paydirt in SBLIX with me in the DKN Betting Group!
