Of the many hundreds of choices for Super Bowl bets—quite literally hundreds, from game outcomes, to Super Bowl player props, novelty props, specials, etc.—you can bet on statistical game-leaders in the Game Leaders tab on your DraftKings Sportsbook app when perusing markets for Super Bowl LIX. We’ll be focusing on my best bets and preferred picks for receiving yards leaders in this column. The betting favorites for the Super Bowl 2025 receiving leader, as of now, are A.J. Brown, Travis Kelce, and Xavier Worthy, as seen below.
Currently, A.J. Brown is the favorite at +180 odds, and his receiving yards line is set at 71.5. My colleague (and sharp Philadelphia sports mind) Sean Barnard wrote a column about how he not only likes A.J. Brown to win this superlative, but also how the price is a bargain.
Buffalo showed the blueprint for slowing down Kelce, so expect this to be at the top of the Eagles’ priority list. Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ list of priorities starts with stopping Barkley, not Brown, and the latter went for 96 receiving yards in the first Super Bowl matchup between these two teams. While there are plenty of weapons on this Eagles’ roster, there is no doubt that Brown is the top wide receiver. With stopping the run being the focus for Kansas City, expect the deep passing options to be there.
Getting +180 odds of Brown being the leading receiver is a creative way to bet on the star wideout beyond just his traditional prop market. Expect the Chiefs to keep their passing attack more widespread among options, while Brown leads the way for the Eagles and ultimately the entire game’s production. Expect a few big-play opportunities to go Brown’s way as he plays a key part in Philadelphia’s game plan and seek their Super Bowl revenge.
I, however, believe a bit more in the Trent McDuffie effect than Sean does, and expect any deep opportunities for Brown to fall flat in this game. I wrote as much in my full A.J. Brown betting card article for Super Bowl LIX.
I’ll quote a bit of that piece here, I’m sure. But I’ll also provide plenty of novel analysis on my preferred pick and my long-shot bets for this prop below.
Super Bowl LIX receiving yards leader: Dan’s best bets and preferred pick
Long-shot bet: JuJu Smith-Schuster (+3500)
If we’re looking at any Chief to win this bet, we need to remind ourselves once again that the Eagles secondary is composed of Darius Slay, Quinyon Mitchell, Cooper DeJean, and Reed Blankenship. It’s an elite core that helped elevate the team to finish second in the NFL in defensive passing DVOA in the regular season. Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith, & co. up front cause enough havoc around the quarterback to put the secondary in positions to succeed.
Which is to say, a Noah Gray wager for this same bet at this same price tag says to me that the markets have thoroughly rejected the idea of a repeat performance from JuJu Smith-Schuster’s AFC Championship game, in which he logged 60 yards on two catches. Which—fair enough; the longer of JuJu’s two catches was on a broken play.
It just wouldn’t surprise me if the receiving yardage leader could be someone Patrick Mahomes relies on for a few key third-and-long conversions. With so much attention paid to Worthy, Kelce, and Hollywood Brown, I think Smith-Schuster has the best shot between Kansas City’s fourth-to-sixth options in the passing game.
Having said that, Hollywood Brown’s +900 price intrigues me as well, but wasn’t quite long enough for the long-shot. Having said that, it’s feasible, too, that Brown has the freshest legs and the softer one-on-one matchups.
Best bet: DeVonta Smith (+600)
I have a lot of trouble seeing why Slim Reaper is six-to-one odds to lead the game in receiving yards. By my projections, he’s a lock at least for the second-most receiving yards or better. I really do believe he’s the best value on this betting bill, however.
DraftKings Sportsbook is running a higher-bonus-bet-payout version of their King of the End Zone promotion, which has been wildly popular throughout the NFL playoffs. I’ve been working with my colleague, Jeff Pratt, on providing some analysis for our DKN audience as to the best way to bet this promotion for each rung of the bracket, and I broke down my favorite candidate again for Super Bowl Sunday.
Here’s what I had to say about A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith against the Chiefs’ coverage packages, and why the advantage goes to Smith:
Brown is the Eagles’ best man-beater. Since 2022, Brown has 183 targets and 115 receptions against man coverage, which leads the team. The general hope is that the shootout-in-the-square between he and McDuffie will be spectacular. Which is to say, I still expect Brown to get his one-on-one opportunities, even if he’s got one of the best defensive backs in the game dogging his routes.
But this personnel approach would leave Smith lined up against Jaylen Watson, or potentially-but-less-likely Chamarri Conner. And this is a clear advantage for a healthy DeVonta Smith, whose championship pedigree speaks for itself. In Super Bowl LVII, Smith caught seven balls for 100 yards, and no touchdowns. That, of course, was the ultimate downfall of the Eagles in the loss two years’ ago: an inability to convert in the red zone.
Everyone’s all over Dallas Goedert’s yardage props in this game—and for good reason—but I think I’ve talked myself into loving the Slim Reaper as my primary touchdown scorer pick for the Bowl (other than Barkley). He’s the better zone-beater than Brown, historically. Smith has 157 targets since 2022 against zone; Brown has 146. DeVonta leads the Eagles with over 700 yards against zone coverage in 2024. If Smith catches the Chiefs’ safeties with a double-move on a go route, it might be moonball time.
Bottom Line
The yardage markets for all receivers are set so low that it feels like the books are either categorically and sweepingly afield in their projections of the game—yeah, right—or it’ll be the case that the public’s smashing of everyone’s receiving yardage overs will pay the book dividends. Much more likely.
Smith’s reception line is only set at 52.5, and I like him to clear it. I break down why I like A.J. Brown to go under his projected total of 71.5—a game-high—in my cheat sheet linked above.
It’s entirely likely the leading receiver in this game won’t break a triple-digit total, and I think DeVonta Smith has the best chance to bloat his yardage with a long ball from Jalen Hurts.
Back Slim Reaper to lead the Super Bowl in receiving yards with me in the DKN Betting Group!
