As a man of literature myself, I felt compelled to endeavor a full analysis of A.J. Brown’s betting markets and DFS prospects for Super Bowl Sunday 2025. Like draws like, etc. And, while I’m more of a fiction guy, A.J.’s out there reading highlighted/annotated mantras that keep him from ripping heads off and rolling them down the Philadelphia sideline for not getting more targets. Inner excellence, indeed. We all expected him to hit a library celebration after his NFC Championship touchdown, but he didn’t. Brown continues to be just enigmatic enough—both as a character and as a role on this offense—that it makes evaluating his markets for best bets, prop bets, and best Super Bowl Specials a bit tricky.
Below are my favorite prop bets—all of which I’ll at least be sprinkling, and noting so on my handle @dansby_edits and placing in the DKN Betting Group—for big no. 11 on the Eagles.
A.J. Brown best bets and prop bets for Super Bowl 2025
A.J. Brown to have 1+ reception in each quarter (+275)
I’ve noted this in my other Super Bowl betting content this week, but I’m much more intrigued by the volume/yardage markets than I am in making many touchdown plays. But for the 2022 meeting between these same two teams, most Super Bowls are known to be low-to-moderate-scoring defensive slogs.
Which is why I think +275 for Brown to catch a pass in all four quarters is solid value, here. We know the Eagles are going to make early efforts to get him the ball, so it’s almost a certainty he’ll catch a ball in the first quarter (his odds for that, by the way, are -340). I always like to count on my stud players to make some big plays around the middle-eight, so I’m confident he’ll see looks in the second and third quarters.
Where this bet falls apart is if the Eagles are somehow up big on the Chiefs in the fourth quarter, during which the Eagles only see fit to run the ball and sustain long, clock-smashing drives. Even still, when that was the case against the Commanders, Brown caught a first down conversion in the fourth quarter. He caught two passes in the fourth quarter against the Los Angeles Rams in the Divisional Round, as well.
At almost three-to-one payout, I like the Birds’ alpha wideout to see consistent targets throughout the game. And, to be honest, I like even more the Dallas Goedert odds at +450.
Tail Brown to snag a reception in each quarter of the Super Bowl with me in the DKN Betting Group!
A.J. Brown u71.5 receiving yards (-112)
It’s absolutely recency bias, what with the Eagles needing to score 28+ points in their last two games to win, but it sure has seemed like their offense was firing on all cylinders throughout the regular season such that the Divisional Round and Conference Championship wins have been a culmination of consistent season-long production. Not so, however, and it’s important we consider that as we evaluate the yardage lines for Eagles skill players headed into Sunday.
Brown’s receiving yardage total is, of course, the highest-projected of anyone on either roster, and it’s only at 71.5. Call it the Saquon Barkley-, Steve Spagnuolo-, or Trent McDuffie-effect(s), but 71.5 is a pretty low total for a receiver whose longest reception line is set at 25.5. Frankly, all of these lines feel a little baity—DeVonta Smith is at 52.5, as is Dallas Goedert, on whom everyone seems to be betting—such that sharps will have picked a guy to fade. Surely these lines all can’t go over, right?
So I’ll choose to fade Brown. Even though he’s the Eagles’ premier threat against man coverage, with over four yards per route and a total of 529 receiving yards against these personnel packages this year—both Philadelphia-bests. McDuffie has been nothing short of sensational, and I have to imagine the Chiefs are going to let their alpha DB call the shots against Philly’s alpha WR.
All this takes to hit is consistent quarterback pressure from the Chiefs, an incomplete deep ball or two, and maybe a single pass deflection from McDuffie. That’s well within the realm of possibility, especially knowing how long Hurts tends to hold the ball when targeting Brown.
Fade Brown’s yardage total with me in the DKN Betting Group!
A.J. Brown longest reception u25.5 yards (-110)
See all my analysis above re. Brown’s matchup against McDuffie. But also consider that Brown failed to cross this threshold six times during the regular season. The game that caught my eye the most in which he qualified for this under was Philly’s 27-13 win against the Pittsburgh Steelers in December. Brown’s longest reception that game, against a defense the caliber of these Kansas City Chiefs, was only 21 yards.
Bet on no moonshots to Brown with me in the DKN Betting Group!
A.J. Brown Super Bowl 2025 DFS Analysis
All of our writers at DKN are providing DFS analysis for all skill players in the big game, and the contest we’re referencing specifically is the NFL Showdown $5M Super Bowl LIX Millionaire [$1M to 1st, TD Throne Eligible] (Super Bowl), where a $20 stake gives you a shot at a milliion-dollar-winning lineup.
Currently, here’s where Brown stands in terms of salary: $14,400 Captain’s Pick (CP) | 9,600 FLEX
I’d much prefer Xavier Worthy ($12,000 CP | 8,000 FLEX) in a Brown-like role in my offensive lineup construction for these contests for the cheaper price, which I noted here in my full betting analysis for Worthy’s first Super Bowl appearance. Brown will likely be double-teamed and, when in one-on-one situations, should be going against one of the best island corners in the league. This might be one where Sirianni looked Brown in the eye and had to let him know, flat out, that it’s not going to be his game.
If there’s an above prop bet in which I’m least confident, especially as it relates to DFS outlook, it’s the under on the yardage total. I could see an eventuality where the Eagles feel they need to force-feed their big man on the outside, hit him with double-digit targets, and just slowly rack him up into the 80-to-100-yard threshold. In this case, I’d project him for a touchdown as well.
But that’s not the game-script I see playing out, here. Put simply: Brown is the fourth-most expensive asset in these contests. I have him just outside my top-five offensive performances for Super Bowl LIX, so I’d look elsewhere for my Showdown lineups.
Whomever you choose as your Captain’s Pick, just remember to set your DraftKings lineups here: NFL Showdown $5M Super Bowl LIX Millionaire [$1M to 1st, TD Throne Eligible] (Super Bowl)!
