Lucas Giolito’s elbow injury throws Red Sox’ inadequate offseason into sharp relief

The Boston Red Sox have caught a ton of flack (from both fans and their own players) over their conspicuously quiet offseason, especially in regards to their starting pitching situation. That criticism is only going to get louder now: According to a report from ESPN’s Jeff Passan, right-hander Lucas Giolito — the team’s sole significant addition to its rotation this winter — has likely suffered a partially torn UCL and flexor strain in his pitching elbow. If true, Giolito may require surgery, which could put his entire 2024 season in jeopardy.

That diagnosis isn’t official yet — note Passan’s use of the word “likely” there — but things certainly don’t seem great right now. Manager Alex Cora told reporters on Tuesday morning that Giolito felt elbow discomfort following his most recent spring outing, adding that the team is “concerned” about its new ace.

A partially torn UCL doesn’t always lead to or necessitate Tommy John surgery. But even if Giolito avoids going under the knife, he’s likely to be out for months, not weeks — a huge blow to a Red Sox rotation that was relying on him for major innings this season. Only three teams got fewer innings from its starting pitchers last season than Boston did, one of the main reasons they signed Giolito to a two-year deal this winter. The righty had pitched at least 160 innings in each of the last five full seasons, making at least 29 starts in all of them. He’d struggled a bit over the last two years, pitching to a 4.89 ERA with the White Sox, Angels and Guardians, but if nothing else, you could count on Giolito take the ball every fifth day.

Or so the team thought. Now that plan is out the window, and Boston is back to the drawing board — only now they’re also without Chris Sale, dealt to the Braves in exchange for Vaughn Grissom in December. Brayan Bello looks like a budding star, but overall this Red Sox rotation is long on potential but short on known quantities. Nick Pivetta seemed to take a step forward last year, but he’s been notoriously inconsistent throughout his career and brings his own injury history to the table. Kutter Crawford, Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck figure to round out the rest of the starting five, and while those are three talented arms, none of them have shown the ability to go five or six innings every fifth day over the course of a long season.

All of which Boston knew at the start of the offseason, which makes their lack of aggression all the more puzzling. This isn’t a small-market team entering a rebuild. The Red Sox have talent, and they certainly have money. They also had the benefit of understanding exactly where their roster needed to be improved after another last-place finish in 2023. And yet, they largely stood pat, flipping outfielder Alex Verdugo for depth pieces and swapping in Giolito for Sale. Maybe this will spur the team to make a run at either Jordan Montgomery or (less likely) Blake Snell, both of whom remain available. Color me skeptical, though: New chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and owner John Henry haven’t shown a ton of urgency to win this season, and that seems unlikely to change in the wake of Giolito’s injury. Boston had a need for another pitcher even before this news, and if they thought that Montgomery or Snell were the solution, they would’ve gotten a deal done by now.

Instead, the team seems headed for another year caught in between, with too much talent to truly bottom out but too many holes to make a serious run at contention in a rugged AL East division — a division in which the New York Yankees added major pieces over the offseason. The Red Sox couldn’t have predicted Giolito’s injury, but you accumulate talent for precisely this reason: It’s a long, long season, and you’re going to have to weather at least a storm or two. But Boston hasn’t seemed serious about winning in a little while now, and it’s come back to bite them yet again.