Big, broad weekend over here in NFL Week 16. We’ve got two Saturday game this week. I mean—seriously. How awesome is this? The Baltimore Ravens vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers. Harbaugh vs. Tomlin. Lamar Jackson vs. T.J. Watt. Zay Flowers vs. George Pickens. How can this not be an absolutely pitch-perfect December football game?
I’ve already covered my favorite Lamar Jackson prop and my favorite Mark Andrews prop for this game, and I think there’s a sneaky-good value on one of Zay Flowers’s markets. Let’s have a Saturday.
Zay Flowers best prop bet for Saturday evening football against the Steelers
Zay Flowers o61.5 receiving yards (-110)
The reason I like this line has to do with Flowers’s whole market. His longest reception line is set at 24.5 yards, and his receptions are at 5.5. Which is to say, if Flowers were to even come close to his longest reception, he’d be about 33% of the way to his total receiving line against the Steelers on only one catch.
Of the top-twenty pass-catchers leading the NFL in receiving yardage, Zay Flowers has far-and-away the best separation score on NFL Next Gen Stats (4.1). Next closest is Trey McBride at 3.7. No other receiver comes close to Flowers’s ability to create separation at the catchpoint in this Todd Monken offense.
This might be an RPO-heavy game. Lamar Jackson might be looking for receivers who can get open quickly (read: Flowers) on a run-/pass-option play in the red area, or backed up in their own territory. Flowers’s Anytime TD market (+125) just doesn’t represent enough value to me.
Somehow, Flowers has only caught about 60% of his targets. Many of them are not his fault (he only has a 68.1% expected catch rate). So the rapport between he and Lamar Jackson has been, season-long, something of a work-in-progress. No matter. This passing game is firing on all cylinders.
Bottom Line
With news of Rashod Bateman’s injury, and the disastrous personnel situation that is Diontae Johnson as a Baltimore Raven, the Ravens will be relying on Flowers and Mark Andrews (and, potentially, Isaiah Likely) through the air. Flowers’s specialty is at or around the line of scrimmage, or in simple zone reads.
Flowers ranks ninth in the league in yards after the catch with 408. And that’s actually 95 yards fewer than his expected yards after the catch. There’s a sliver of positive regression we should be expecting from Flowers throughout the remainder of the regular season, and it should help push him across this 61.5 receiving yards threshold against the Steelers.
Saturday night lights, baby!
Best bet: Zay Flowers o61.5 receiving yards (-110)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
