Saturday Evening Football is back, baby. One of my absolute favorites—a little sprinkle of bitter, cold, December divisional rivalry as the Saturday twilight sets in to lay some runway before the full slate blizzards into action on Sunday morning. How fun is this? The Baltimore Ravens vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers. Harbaugh vs. Tomlin. Lamar Jackson vs. T.J. Watt. Let’s make some merry with this game. Per se.
Having said that, we’re going to evaluate Lamar’s prop market to see where the best value might be. A tough task, no doubt. Neck-and-neck with Josh Allen in the MVP race, and fresh off a five-touchdown game. You’d expect his totals to be astronomic. But then you throw in the Steelers-elite-defense of it all.
Either way, it’s a tricky market to evaluate this week, and I’ll analyze my favorite Lamar prop for this gift of a game.
Also—I’ve written up a Mark Andrews prop and a Zay Flowers prop I like as well for this game, in case you want to check out those lines!
Lamar Jackson best prop bet for Saturday evening football against the Steelers
Lamar Jackson Anytime TD Scorer (+180)
Admittedly, this is a little chalky for a prop bet—I know. But I think the value here at almost two-to-one odds is, likely, a little off.
Yes, the Steelers have T.J. Watt on the edge, so it’s unlikely Lamar might keep on a run-/pass-option play in the red area and run Watt’s way. But the Steelers interior defense is fantastic as well, so I’m inclined to believe the Ravens might have some exotic quarterback draws—or, really, any otherwise designed quarterback run from Todd Monken—tucked away for this matchup.
Jackson, somehow with only three rushing touchdowns on the year, is still one of the two the most dangerous and prolific quarterbacks in the NFL. And we don’t necessarily need the Ravens to call a play for him in the red area. Jackson leads all quarterbacks in the NFL with 32 explosive rushes (runs of ten-or-more yards) and 23 runs in which he gained five-plus rushing yards over expectation. Which is to say, Jackson is a touchdown threat with his legs anytime he’s in enemy territory.
Bottom Line
Josh Allen has 14 rushing touchdowns; Jalen Hurts has 11. Lamar Jackson, with his three, is tied with Baker Mayfield. I’m choosing to believe in positive touchdown regression for the 2023 NFL MVP, here. He’ll absolutely hit paydirt under these Saturday Night Lights against the Steelers.
It’s almost as much a rite of passage for Lamar Jackson score with his legs against the Steelers as it was for Jameis Winston to beat the Steelers as a Cleveland Brown, no?
Best bet: Lamar Jackson Anytime TD Scorer (+180)
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
