The regular season is in the rearview this college football season. Now we’re onto some high-stakes Conference Championship Games, many of which will determine who gets into the College Football Playoff and where they will be seeded. Below are my plays and leans for the weekend, along with mention (links) to some of the futures I placed over the summer that I’ll be riding out in these games.
Mountain West: UNLV at Boise State (Friday 8pm ET)
Thanks to my MW future over the summer, I have Boise at -120 to win this game. I’ve added some plays personally throughout the season on the Broncos to win the conference and make the CFP, so this one will be an outcome I’m pretty invested in (despite the smaller public play). If you’re late to the party on Boise, I do still like them in this game, and won’t be buying off at all. I’ll leave it up to you if you want to play the moneyline or lay the points.
UNLV has taken a lot of early sharp money in this one, and I understand the angle. Last season it was the Broncos playing this MW Title game on the road, and they defeated the Rebels in Vegas. Boise went back out to Vegas for a massive regular season game this season, and also came away with the win. Now UNLV will look to play spoiler here, in by far the highest stakes meeting between the teams. The winner will go to the CFP, and if Boise can win as a home favorite, it’ll even maintain a bye given the current bracket.
While I expect UNLV to show up in this spot, I still trust the better team at home. Expect Boise to provide a home field advantage on the Smurf Turf, and a healthy dose of Ashton Jeanty once again. Hajj-Malik Williams was the key to giving UNLV a chance in the first meeting, rushing for 105 yards and a touchdown. If the Broncos can contain the mobile QB, they should have a lot of success at home. UNLV sold out to stop Jeanty the first time around, and while he had 128 rushing yards and a touchdown, it came on 33 carries. I’m not sure the Rebels can do that again, but even if they do, using Jeanty as a decoy to break a big play through the air could also make a big difference in this game.
This should be a fantastic game between two highly motivated teams, but I’ll keep my chips on the Broncos to find their way into the CFP.
THE PICK: Boise State ML — 1-unit
Big 12: Iowa State vs. Arizona State (Saturday 12pm ET – AT&T Stadium)
The Big 12 has been a tough conference to get a feel for all season. Just a couple weeks ago it seemed we’d see BYU and Colorado in this game, but things went completely off the rails. Arizona State has had a remarkable season that nobody saw coming, which was also remarkably bad for my bankroll. Here we are once again, with one last chance to fade the Sun Devils, and I’m doing it again.
I think we have the wrong team favored here, particularly with the Sun Devils playing without their leading WR. Jordyn Tyson has put up a monster 75-1101-10 stat line thus far, and is confirmed to be sidelined for this game. That takes a ton of pressure off the Cyclones secondary that can be focused on other key pieces to this offense.
Iowa State was just tested last week in a must-win game against Kansas State, and passed. I think the Cyclones can take some of that momentum into this one, and matchup well with the Sun Devils. Of all the games I’m betting this weekend, I’ll have the least exposure here. But I’m confident enough to take the points with ISU for a unit.
THE PICK: Iowa State +2 (-105) — 1-unit
SEC: Georgia vs. Texas (Saturday 4pm ET – Mercedes-Benz Stadium)
This is the game of the weekend, both based on matchup, and my rooting interest. While I lost my win total bet on the Bulldogs this season, I have some preseason tickets alive on them, including a 1.5-unit play on them to win the SEC at +190. I’m going to ride that play out, which would cash as a 2.85-unit winner if Georgia can win the game. I will also be taking some points now that the game is here. I tweeted out a teaser on Monday that got through with the Broncos winning, that gets UGA to +8.5 for 1-unit on Saturday, and still think the Dawgs make for a good teaser piece if you want to include them in that fashion. We can also buy the half point on UGA to get them at +3 for -120, which I’m adding for another unit as my pick for the game below.
This is a highly anticipated rematch, and while Texas will clearly be out for revenge, I really like what I saw from Georgia in the first go around. The Dawgs dominated the trenches, and Texas really never gave us a sweat for those of you that backed UGA with me back on October 19 in Austin. I give the coaching advantage to Kirby Smart to find a way to do that once again, and the game being in Atlanta also might be a slight advantage as well.
Spot wise, Texas is coming off a much bigger game. The Longhorns needed to lock into a road game at Texas A&M to reach the SEC Championship game, and now readjust their focus to UGA. Smart and his program clearly have been preparing for Texas, as they fell behind big to Georgia Tech last week in a non-conference game. Ultimately, the Dawgs came back to win in multiple overtimes on Friday, and have an extra day to get ready for this one.
While Texas has a terrific team, I just like the way Georgia matches up and will be prepared for this one. Hopefully we get good Carson Beck in Atlanta, which should lead to the Dawgs earning a CFP bye.
THE PICK: Georgia +3 (-120) — 1-unit (play larger if you don’t have futures)
ACC: Clemson vs. SMU (Saturday 8pm ET – Bank of America Stadium)
THE PICK: SMU ML (-130) — 1.5-units
I faded Clemson in all of their losses this season, and will continue to fade them here. The Tigers should have a bit of a home field advantage with the game up the road in North Carolina, but that’s the only thing that gave me any pause in this game. Neither of these teams have any monster wins on their resume, but I do think that SMU has shown me more, particularly going undefeated in ACC play.
This just isn’t the same Clemson team from the years it made its CFP runs, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. Meanwhile, SMU is loaded with offensive firepower, and I think that’ll give the Tigers some issues in this one. SMU opened a short underdog in this game and has taken significant early money. I happen to agree with the move and will back the Mustangs on the moneyline here.
Big Ten: Penn State vs. Oregon (Saturday 8pm ET – Lucas Oil Stadium)
I had myself set up pretty well here for what I thought would be a great revenge spot for Ohio State to takedown Oregon and jump into the No. 1 overall seed in the CFP. That went up in flames when the Buckeyes had one of the most pathetic losses in recent college football memory. Now a really good Penn State team sneaks into the game, and will face undefeated Oregon.
My initial lean here was to Penn State, but I think I just really want to like them in this game … if that makes sense? The Nittany Lions are a good, physical team that doesn’t letdown the way OSU just letdown on Saturday. However, James Franklin and this program have had plenty of issues when the competition is elite, and Oregon is elite.
Dan Lanning and the Ducks have shown the ability to lose big and important games too, losing as a double-digit favorite to Washington in the PAC-12 Championship last year to cost themselves a playoff birth. But this is also a good spot to right that wrong, while Penn State finds itself in somewhat unknown territory here.
Lastly, I feel the game being indoors should benefit the Ducks and their offensive creativity and speed. Long story short, I haven’t come around on betting this game yet, but I have flipped my lean in the game from PSU to Oregon for the reasons above. If I lock in a bet, I’ll post it.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
