It’s time for some NFL Week 13 Thanksgiving Day Same Game Parlays! I’ll give you an SGP you can tail on DraftKings Sportsbook for each game taking place today (even the dreaded Cowboys-Giants). Let’s take a look at what we have cookin’.
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Jared Goff over 246.5 passing yards
Amon-Ra St. Brown over 70.5 receiving yards
D’Andre Swift over 14.5 receiving yards
+380
This is a simple and easy SGP to start with. Jared Goff is in a great spot against a Bears defense that deploys single-high safety coverage 60% of the time. In this scenario, Goff leads the league in completion percentage and passing yards. It’s not like the Lions ever take their foot off the gas either, as they’ve put up 76 points over the last two games. St. Brown has been lining up all over the field but his best matchup in coverage will be against slot corner Kyler Gordon. In coverage, Gordon has been targeted against 33 times and has allowed 23 catches for 303 yards (13.2 YPR).
Naturally, if the Lions are ahead, which as -9 favorites, you’d expect that, Swift will be seeing some targets. He’s averaging 3.2 targets per game and has gone over 14.5 receiving yards in seven of his 11 games. Swift isn’t seeing his targets only behind the line of scrimmage, he’s been getting the short throws as well. 54% of his targets are behind the line of scrimmage and 43% is between 0-9 yards. For reference, Jahmyr Gibbs is being targeted behind the LOS on 75% of his targets. Nonetheless, the game script for Swift will certainly be more in a pass catching role rather than carrying in a tough matchup.
Are you looking for daily fantasy advice for this Week 13 Thanksgiving slate? Check out our Thanksgiving Targets on DraftKings Network!
Game Total under 37.5
Rico Dowdle over 65.5 rushing yards
Tyrone Tracy over 64.5 rushing yards
+750
A much higher payout for a game that’s going to be tough to get through. I still can’t decide if it’s a good thing or bad thing that this game is the mid-day contest. That’s prime nap time for most of us, so maybe we can sleep through it. Either way, it’s the battle of the backups between Cooper Rush and (expected) Drew Lock.
This game could feature a lot of rush attempts, which has me on both lead backs to go over their rushing total. We have two really poor run defenses going against each other, so that’s what I would expect. The Giants have allowed 5.2 YPC and the most rushing yards over expected (RYOE) in the league with 408. Dowdle went 11/46 on the ground against the Giants in Week 4 while gaining three yards after contact per attempt. Tracy was scripted out of the game quickly last week but still managed 42 yards on nine carries last week against the Buccaneers.
Then we have the total. I’m not particularly inspired by an offensive showdown between Cooper Rush and Drew Lock. Lock is probably the best QB in this game but even then, I’m not looking to go over. Because we’re getting big odds on both running backs to go over, you can play with this total a bit on an alternate line if you want to give yourself more room. Nonetheless, +750 gets you the two overs and the under on the game total.
Josh Jacobs over 92.5 Rush/Receiving yards
Jordan Love under 242.5 passing yards
De’Von Achane over 4.5 receptions
+525
This SGP combines all the plays I wrote up about for this game in an article over on DraftKings Network. If you want to read how I broke these props down, head over to my Dolphins-Packers betting article.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
