It is a time to give thanks. One month removed from treats and pranks with another month before blowtorching those pesky snowbanks. Some teams have fully embraced the tank while others continue to battle for the top rank. For the Thanksgiving slate, we have three teams that have skills and a resume on the level of Hillary Swank, while the other three will put many in a state where their friends ask them, “How much you drank?” Regardless, we will sit down and enjoy all three games because we are good, obedient Yanks. For you foreigners, I’ll be frank. I’m drawing a blank. But the NFL will continue to fill its Scrooge McDuck vault in the bank.
There are three games on this Thanksgiving slate. DraftKings Sportsbook has DET -9.5 at home over CHI with the total at 48.5. DAL is -3.5 over NYG with the total at 37.5. GB is -3 over MIA with the total at 48.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Thanksgiving Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (Thu).
Quarterback
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears ($6,500) – With Goff being the most expensive quarterback on the slate and also not having rushing upside, he will more than likely be the lowest-owned quarterback. Most will likely want to save salary at the position and have the running backs scoring the bulk of the points for Detroit, especially with Jahmyr Gibbs coming off a game with 21 carries for 90 yards and two touchdowns.
Goff has eight games with fewer than 20 FPTS, but he has three games over 27 FTPS, with a high of 37.58 FPTS. Dan Campbell has shown that he’s a member of Cobra Kai, as he sweeps the leg even when the game is out of hand. On a small slate with ownership likely to be highly concentrated, what if Goff has one of those games like against Jacksonville two weeks ago? 24-of-29 for 412 yards and four touchdowns. He even rushed four times for 21 yards.
Detroit is implied to score 29 points, the most of any team in Week 13, so points will more than likely be scored. I will take the path that looks to be the one less traveled.
Other Options – Jordan Love ($6,300), Caleb Williams ($5,300)
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Running Back
Tyrone Tracy Jr., Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys ($5,800) – Rico Dowdle will likely be the highest-rostered running back, as he’s $300 cheaper and is coming off a game in which he carried 19 times for 86 yards. The matchup is a good one as well, as the Giants have allowed the second-most EPA per carry and Dallas is favored by 3.5 points at home.
Tracy only had nine carries for 42 yards last week and lost a fumble, which allowed Devin Singletary to garner more snaps, but he’s the more explosive back, having exceeded 100 yards three times this season. More importantly, he will likely be one of the lower-owned running backs but has plenty of upside, since the Cowboys have allowed the most EPA per carry this season.
Other Options – De’Von Achane ($7,700), Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,500), Josh Jacobs ($7,000), David Montgomery ($6,500), D’Andre Swift ($6,000), Rico Dowdle ($5,500)
Wide Receiver
Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears ($6,100) – If I’m going with Goff, I have to pair him with at least two pass catchers because he doesn’t have much rushing upside. As for pass catchers, the obvious choice is to pair Goff with St. Brown. He’s going to get a ton of targets and could put up the most points on the slate. On the season, he had games with 19 and 11 targets, putting up 25.9 and a massive 41.7 FPTS. He’s exceeded 20 FPTS five times. That said, he’s gone sub-20 FPTS six times. What if he doesn’t have a ceiling game and it’s Williams instead?
Williams doesn’t have the floor of St. Brown, but he has blazing speed and can take it to the house on any given play. He has two games with over 25 FPTS.
The ownership should be low enough to make the risk/reward worth it because if Williams hits, he takes away from all the St. Brown ownership.
Other Options – Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000), CeeDee Lamb ($7,300), DJ Moore ($5,600), Jaylen Waddle ($5,400), Keenan Allen ($5,100)
Tight End
Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears ($4,100) – LaPorta will be rostered, but probably not as much as Jonnu Smith. LaPorta hasn’t received more than six targets in any game and has produced double-digit FPTS just three times this season. But he can explode at any time. Last season, he had two multi-touchdown games, with a three-touchdown performance against the Broncos. Recent history tells us that he will have a mediocre game, but he fits my narrative with Goff.
Other Options – Jonnu Smith ($4,300), Tucker Kraft ($3,700), Cole Kmet ($3,600), Luke Schoonmaker ($3,400)
Defense/Special Teams
Lions DST vs. Chicago Bears ($3,500) – I’m going with the Lions’ onslaught. The unit has scored double-digit FPTS only twice this season and has a sack rate of 5.7%, but the 14 interceptions are third-most and they have posted the lowest EPA per dropback on the season.
Caleb Williams has shown improvement and is coming off a very good game against a tough Vikings defense, but he will likely be chasing points in this one, four of his five interceptions have come on the road and he’s taken a league-leading 44 sacks.
Other Options – Packers DST ($3,000), Giants DST ($2,800)
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Thanksgiving Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (Thu).
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
