The 2024 Presidential is just around the corner. Now more than ever, people are using the betting markets over polls to see who is in the lead and where. Currently, on DraftKings Sportsbook (only available in Ontario, Canada) a market is up showing which party is leading in the seven pivotal swing states. Let’s take a look at the latest, updated odds as of Monday, October 28th.
For the latest Presidential betting odds (only available in Ontario, Canada) visit our coverage on DraftKings Network.
Seven Swing States Odds as of October 28th:
Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes):
Donald Trump -135 (no change)
Kamala Harris +110 (no change)
Viewed as the most important swing state, the odds have not moved since our last update. Trump is still -135 to win the state, which gives him an implied probability of 57.5%. Recent polls have the two candidates deadlocked here, with Trump leading by just 0.3%. Nonetheless, you will likely see numerous visits by both parties to areas of Pennsylvania over the next week.
Just how important is Pennsylvania to both parties? A win here for Trump would be devastating for Kamala Harris. This would force her to flip states she’s currently a huge underdog in, at least according to these odds. Georgia and North Carolina would need to go in her favor and she’s currently +175 in both of them. A Trump victory here would almost guarantee a victory in the 2024 Presidential Election.
If Harris wins here, Trump would be down to six paths to victory. It wouldn’t be impossible, but, he would need to win four key states. Combinations of states including Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, and Wisconsin would need to play out in his favor. Michigan is also currently tilting in favor of Harris, which would drive Trump to one single remaining path.
You can view which states are safe for Donald Trump here.
Arizona (11 electoral votes)
Donald Trump -340 (no change)
Kamala Harris +250 (no change)
This is a great example of how different the polls and betting markets differ. While recent polls are showing Trump ahead by around two points, a -340 line implies a 77.2% chance of victory. A win here for Trump still gives Harris 10 paths to victory, but six of them include Pennsylvania. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out with such a stark difference in the polling numbers and how this line is set. This is the biggest lead by either candidate in the seven swing states.
Georgia (16 electoral votes)
Donald Trump -225 (no change)
Kamala Harris +175 (no change)
Another state that is standing pat from an odds perspective is Georgia. We all remember the controversy that surrounded this state in the 2020 election. After backing Trump in 2016, Joe Biden was able to flip Georgia his way by a razor-thin margin. His 49.47% of the votes edged Trump, who ended up with 49.24%. Trump is banking on Georgia to swing back his way here in 2024.
At -225, this implies a 69% chance of victory. Again, this is a big difference from the pools, which has Trump ahead but by 1.5%. Should the betting market be correct, Trump would only need Pennsylvania and North Carolina, where he’s a heavy favorite.
If Harris can keep this state blue, she’d earn the Presidency with wins in two other key states. Combinations of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona would all be in play. Georgia could be huge for Harris should she pull off the victory, but that would also be going against what both the polls and betting markets are showing.
Michigan (15 electoral votes)
Kamala Harris -110 (was -125)
Donald Trump -110 (was +100)
The last time we looked at this market, it was deadlocked at -110 for each side. Harris has now taken the lead in Michigan, the only state she’s leading in on DraftKings Sportsbook. A win here would give her 11 paths to victory while knocking Trump down to eight. A win for Harris would require Trump to win Pennsylvania in seven of his remaining eight paths to victory. He also would need to win at least four swing states in seven of his eight remaining paths. It would be a big win for Harris to keep this state blue after flipping in 2016.
You can view which states are safe for Kamala Harris here.
Nevada (6 electoral votes)
Donald Trump -135 (was +100)
Kamala Harris +110 (was -125)
Nevada continues to move heavily in favor of Trump. When we first wrote about this state, Harris was -125 to win with Trump at even money. Since then, Trump has moved to a -165 favorite and dropped Harris to +130. This state has seen the biggest swing since we started this series despite the polls indicating it’s very tight. As of Monday morning, Trump only has a 0.2% lead while the line indicates a win probability of 62%
A win here for Trump would be first. He lost Nevada in both 2016 and 2020 but it was close each time. Hillary won it in 2016 by 2.42% while Biden won 2.4%. Where Trump faltered in both elections was Clark County (Las Vegas) and Washoe Count (Reno). Those votes for the Democratic Party were enough to knock off Trump, despite him winning 15 of the 17 counties. If Trump were to flip even one of them, that could be enough to earn him Nevada and their six electoral votes.
North Carolina (16 electoral votes)
Donald Trump -230 (was -185)
Kamala Harris +175 (was +150)
Trump’s lead in North Carolina fell slightly from -230 to -225. A win here for Trump feels probable, as they’ve been loyal to Trump in the last two elections. In 2016, he won 3.66% over Clinton but only 1.34% over Biden. Recent polls have Trump starting to widen his lead here, albeit by a very small margin. Earlier in October, Trump was less than a percentage point higher than Harris. Polls now have Trump ahead by about 1.5%.
If Harris were able to flip North Carolina, it would be the first time since 2008. She’ll likely have support in the biggest cities, but Trump has controlled the smaller counties throughout the state. This will be a state to watch attentively over the next week to see if Trump’s odds remain the same, even with a comfortable lead currently.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
Donald Trump -125 (was -110)
Kamala Harris +100 (was -110)
Wisconsin has seen a lot of political activity over the past couple of weeks. It’s one of the closest states on DraftKings Sportsbook along with Michigan. Trump has a slight lead here after originally being tied a couple of weeks ago. A win for either candidate, along with Pennsylvania, would cripple either party.
It should be noted that this was going in favor of Harris for quite a while. Near the end of August, Harris was ahead by nearly four points. Trump has since closed the gap with both parties now even. A win for Trump would require Harris to win a combination of at least three swing states, including Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, and Arizona.
Presidential election odds on DraftKings Sportsbook are currently available only in Ontario, Canada.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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