The 2024 Presidential Election is now exactly two weeks away. Now, more than ever, the seven swing states in the United States are the main focus. As Donald Trump and Kamala continue to hold rallies and events in these states, the betting odds continue to shift. Below, we’ll show you how the odds have shifted from October 17th, to today, October 22nd.
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Seven Swing States Odds as of October 22nd:
Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes):
Donald Trump -135 (was -125)
Kamala Harris +110 (was +100)
The pivotal state of Pennsylvania continues to move in favor of Trump. While polls show these two nearly deadlocked, it has recently flipped in favor of Trump, albeit a slight margin. With the current odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, odds of -135 give him an implied probability of winning at 57.4%. In these final two weeks, you’ll likely see both candidates heavily involved in rallies and appearances in this state.
A win in Pennsylvania for Harris would give her 10 separate paths to victory while narrowing Trump to six. Likewise, a victory for Trump him gives him 15 paths while Kamala is down to 10. A win for Trump in Pennsylvania does open up the possibility of a tie as well (for everyone sake, let’s hope not).
You can view which states are safe for Donald Trump here.
Arizona (11 electoral votes)
Donald Trump -340 (was -280)
Kamala Harris +250 (was +220)
It feels as if we can already knock this state off the seven swing state list. At -340, this implies a 77% chance of Trump taking down Arizona. A win here and Pennsylvania would drop Harris’ chances of winning down to a slim four paths. Three of them would require her to win Georgia, which is also looking as if it’s starting to be out of reach. The only way Harris could still win without PA and AZ would require a sweep of North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada.
Georgia (16 electoral votes)
Donald Trump -225 (was -200)
Kamala Harris +175 (was +160)
Polls have Trump with just under a 2% lead in the state but these odds give him an implied percentage of 69%. A Trump win in Georgia would require Harris to win Pennsylvania in most of her paths left should this happen. It would need an upset or Arizona or North Carolina, both of which are not looking strong. That said, Georgia did end up in favor of Joe Biden after going Republican in six straight elections. But, the odds continue to move in Trump’s favor.
Michigan (15 electoral votes)
Kamala Harris -110 (was -125)
Donald Trump -110 (was +100)
The last time we added these odds, we had one state in a tie but it wasn’t Michigan. The line has now moved to a coin flip. Harris originally had a -125 lead, giving her an implied percentage of 55%. This could be due to some reports coming out that the Harris campaign are concerned about fading results in both Michigan and North Carolina. Harris peaked in the polls in Michigan back in August with a 3.5% advantage. Trump has now closed that gap and both candidates are tied. A win in all of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Georgia by either candidate would be enough to win the election.
You can view which states are safe for Kamala Harris here.
Nevada (6 electoral votes)
Donald Trump -135 (was +100)
Kamala Harris +110 (was -125)
Nevada has taken the biggest swing amongst these seven states. This originally was in favor of Harris at -125. It has now completely flipped and is giving Trump an implied percentage of victory at 57%. While losing Nevada by either side wouldn’t have devastating consequences, a Harris win here and Michigan would have left Trump with just four victory paths. Nevada has polled at a near deadlock the entire time since Harris was officially named the nominee. The biggest margin she ever lead by was at 1.4% back in late September. So while this has the lowest number of electoral votes to give, it’s still a very important state to watch.
North Carolina (16 electoral votes)
Donald Trump -230 (was -185)
Kamala Harris +175 (was +150)
As mentioned above, the Harris campaign is worried about their prospects in both Michigan and North Carolina. Trump is starting to look as if he can take down this state, giving him an implied probability of 69%. This is a state that Harris would need to flip from Trump, as they’ve voted for him in the past two elections. North Carolina did vote Democrat back in 2008, but that was the first time since 1976. It feels more and more unlikely that Harris can pry this state away that’s been loyal to Trump and Republicans.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
Donald Trump -125 (was -110)
Kamala Harris +100 (was -110)
When we last checked on these odds, Wisconsin was the state that was tied at -110 for both sides. Trump has now taken a slight lead at -125, pushing Harris down to even money. Harris had nearly a 2% advantage here earlier this month but once again, Trump has been able to close the gap. This state still feels very much up for grabs. Historically, Wisconsin had been a loyal Democratic state until 2016, when it flipped for Trump. They went back to their roots, however, in 2020 in favor of Biden. Like North Carolina, this is a state that Trump really needs to flip to make his path easy. This late in the game, he has a chance, but this could be one of the closer battles amongst the seven.
Presidential election odds on DraftKings Sportsbook are currently available only in Ontario, Canada.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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