Fridays are for Five lists of Five, baby. Let’s get you set for Week 6.
Because, honestly—all I want is for you to be better than your friends. You’re going to be surrounded by them on Sunday, probably. How sweet would it be if you could be sure you’ve checked every box possible that might guarantee you a resounding victory this week? Some kick-your-feet-up insights? I’ve got some.
I know my audience. The smoke-break audience. The quick-scan-of-the-phone-on-the-way-to-the-fridge audience. The give-me-as-much-info-as-possible-as-fast-as-possible audience. I’m a man of the people.
And so: the Five Lists of Five series. Think of these as byte-sized, two-minutes-to-yourself lists to scan during your weekend as you foam at the mouth for any competitive fantasy edge. As much relevant analysis as I can fit into, like, 250 words per player.
Keeping it rolling this week with my list of five wide receivers due for breakout games in Week 6.
Also available from my Week 6 Five Lists of Five:
- Top five fantasy football streamers for NFL Week 6
- Top five fantasy football stashes for NFL Week 6
- Top five fantasy football fades for NFL Week 6
- Top five fantasy football must-starters for NFL Week 6
A few repeats from last week, but if they’re here, it constitutes their last chance until they’re full-on benchable.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)
Last chance type stuff here, maybe. Pickens has been a ridiculous disappointment. His interview Thursday about his eyeblack and his sideline shenanigans against the Cowboys was less-than-inspiring. We always knew this athlete had some team-dynamic eccentricities, but they’re fully coming to light now.
According to Pickens himself, we can blame Arthur Smith (once again, just on a different team!) for limiting snap count and opportunities.
I’m hoping Pickens is smart enough to know that the best way to put any and all of this nonsense to rest is to be so good on the practice field and on regulation game tape that they can’t help but give him the ball. If he happens to be feeling, after his locker room interview with the media earlier this week, that it’s time to let his play do the talking, it could be as early as this week against the reeling Las Vegas Raiders.
Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Green Bay Packers (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
So much for Week 5. But I think there’s a legitimate reason why Wicks flubbed last week. I break it down with visuals and more stats in this column, but here’s an excerpt:
Against the Rams, Wicks lined up against Akhello Witherspoon five times, Darious Williams six times, and Cobie Durant eight times—all cornerbacks. He only faced linebacker or safety coverage on three of his 24 routes. In his breakout game against the Vikings, three of Wicks’s receptions, 34 of his yards, and both his touchdowns game against safeties and linebackers. Most of his yards still came against CB Byron Murphy, but so did one interception.
I really think this is a vector we follow. Wicks might be a matchup-dependent guy on his most alpha-receiver plays until he can fix some of his concentration issues.
This game currently has a total line of 49.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Wicks has gotta eat, too, right?
Gabe Davis, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Chicago Bears)
We’re following the data, here. Davis currently ranks tenth-worst in the league with a -61 receiving yards over expectation (RecYOE). I just don’t see how a wideout with over 350 air yards, under a 20% target share, and a 59.6% expected catch rate isn’t going to regress positively, at least a little bit.
The Jaguars offense showed an incredible ability to protect Trevor Lawrence, or at least get him out of the pressure zone. They only let the Colts defense pressure them 5% of the time in Week 5.
Brian Thomas Jr. is making headlines, and Christian Kirk is doing Kirk things, but Gabe Davis is going to have a Gabe Davis game sooner than later. Why not London?
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. New York Giants)
Higgins has seen 30 targets from Joe Burrow (who currently leads the league in EPA+CPOE composite over the last two weeks) in the last three weeks. He’s converted them into 18 receptions for 182 yards. His catch rate and expected catch rate are almost identical (both within decimal points of 60%). And he’s commanding a 28.7% target share on the routes he runs.
I like this to be the week Higgins might find paydirt once, maybe even twice. It’s time.
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Indianapolis Colts (vs. Tennessee Titans)
Directly from my Fantasy Football Week 6 Stash List:
Just as we saw with Dontayvion Wicks’s and Xavier Worthy’s presumed usage in Week 5, there’s no guarantee in target vacuum succession. More on that later in the list. The same could be true for Alec Pierce, which means rookie Adonai Mitchell is a fine stash play.
A reminder of Mitchell’s superlative athleticism, as per his NFL combine scores:
- 40-yard dash: 4.34 (97th percentile)
- Speed score: 117.1 (98th percentile)
- Burst score: 135.2 (96th percentile)
- Catch radius: 10.29 (92nd percentile)
WR Coach Reggie Wayne hyped Mitchell up big this week. Michael Pittman Jr. is out for a while. Stash this high-upside rookie, and don’t be surprised if he has his breakout game in Week 6.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
