I was so excited about this dude’s potential in Week 5 that I nearly bought a Dontayvion Wicks jersey. That’s how all-in I was. I contemplated writing a bold predictions article; Wicks would have been at the center of that, and I would have projected him to have something like a Jauan Jennings Week 3 performance.
My venerable colleague Meghan Townsley—who is, as I’m sure you all well know, famously a Packers fan—told me I might need to seek help re. my loquacious optimism for fringe fantasy receivers. In this case, she happened to be referencing Alec Pierce, but what is Alec Pierce if not a more sure-handed, blue-jerseyed Dontayvion Wicks?
What can I say? Fantasy-footballwise, it’s been a figurative bloodbath out there. It’s borderline biblical stuff, all these cataclysmic injuries. 2024’s fantasy champions—and certainly the weekly champions of all the DraftKings DFS contests like the NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]—might just be the folks who capture the highest-voltage WR3 lightning.
And so we’re back to Wicks.
Analysis
In Week 5, I thought Wicks had as clear as path as any to carpet-bombing his way around the Rams defense for a potential WR1 finish on the weekend. When news broke that the team suspended Wicks’s fellow wideout Romeo Doubs for the game, the path crystallized. The production never did.
Wicks caught two of seven targets from Jordan Love for 20 yards. He stepped in gum. No two ways (but two catches!) about it. His 17% drop rate on the season shined through all the clearer, to paraphrase Samwise Gamgee. Tucker Kraft ended up having the breakout game we wanted of Wicks. Jayden Reed showed, again, why he’s just, as Meghan put it, “THE guy.”
I rummaged through all the NFL Next Gen Stats for that Rams/Packers game. And, of Wicks’s poor production, I can assure you: it wasn’t for lack of high-value opportunity.
His route tree looks like exactly that of an X receiver (see DJ Moore’s and Rome Odunze’s in this write-up on Rome here):
You can see he was targeted 15+ yards from the line of scrimmage three times in the game, but all three attempts fell incomplete (white dots). It also just so happens that those were the routes on which he and Jordan Love looked the most out of sync.
So, okay—re-enter Romeo Doubs. Hear me out: maybe it’s not a bad thing. Doubs is returning to the field hot, freshly-punished, more-than-likely motivated as opposed to ready to run around with his tail between his legs. Not to mention, defenders know they’re going to need to respect Tucker Kraft after his breakout game in Week 5. And Jayden Reed is going absolutely nowhere. Absolute stud.
And I think I found the telling stat about Wicks’s dud.
Against the Rams, Wicks lined up against Akhello Witherspoon five times, Darious Williams six times, and Cobie Durant eight times—all cornerbacks. He only faced linebacker or safety coverage on three of his 24 routes.
In his breakout game against the Vikings, three of Wicks’s receptions, 34 of his yards, and both his touchdowns game against safeties and linebackers.
Most of his yards still came against CB Byron Murphy, but so did one interception. I really think this is a vector we follow. Wicks might be a matchup-dependent guy on his most alpha-receiver plays until he can fix some of his concentration issues.
Bottom Line
A return to action for Doubs and more attention paid to Tucker Kraft is not going to be a bad thing for Wicks. Neither is his matchup against the Cardinals defense, who are fifth-worst in the NFL in EPA allowed on passing plays. I don’t think Jordan Love is going to start looking away from him. I think we just need Wicks to get a little bit lost in the secondary and take advantage of personnel mismatches.
And I’ll wager he does it. This game currently has a total line of 49.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Wicks has gotta eat, too, right?
Also—fantasy football is just weird. It’s just going to work out (power down any expectations of legitimate analysis henceforth, by the way) that this is the week Wicks goes nuts, when he’s currently only in 12.6% of starting lineups. I’m not letting him go off on the bench. Nope. Not letting any of that fickle fantasy football cosmic stuff find any reason to dunk on me this week.
He’s worth a DFS flier, as well, at his current pricetag.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is thegreatdansby9) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
