We’re back with Week 6’s best fantasy football stash players, fresh off some middling success. No thanks to once-fantasy-football-sleepers-now-just-jeepers-creepers Dontayvion Wicks, Xavier Legette, and Jerry Jeudy. Though the last, there, might be more of a Deshaun Watson problem.
In Week 5, we hit on: Tucker Kraft, Jordan Whittington, and, most gloriously, Alec Pierce. Hope you stashed ’em, especially now that Michael Pittman Jr. is out for a while! They’ve all got season-long value, now. Follow me on X at @dansby_edits for all my stat-and-sleeper-related fantasy threads throughout the week.
Real quick, I want to note that I know empty bench spots might be at a premium right now. I bet so many of us are looking at our fantasy rosters, benches bloated with high-upside WR3s and handcuffs and breakout TEs; we’re just waiting for one of them to blast off. In a season with this many injuries, stashing becomes all the more important, but harder all the while. Cruel!
Here’s hoping you all find a non-devastating way to clear a roster spot before this weekend, as I think all the names on this list have some serious value.
Below is the list for Week 6, in no particular order.
Stash ‘Em
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Indianapolis Colts (8.2% rostered)
A repeat from last week, with even more relevance now. Joe Flacco is apparently the rising tide that raises all Indianapolis ships; over the last two weeks, Joe Flacco is second in the NFL in EPA+CPOE composite, and third in the league in Adjusted EPA/play.
Josh Downs owners and Michael Pittman Jr. owners, in particular, rejoiced. The latter, of course, just until we found out yesterday that MPJ might be hitting IR with a back injury. Josh Downs owners have been more-or-less spending most of their time since posting the rising graph emoji on their social media feeds.
Alec Pierce (currently rostered in only 21% of leagues? are we all asleep?) seems to be the presumed primary beneficiary among the fantasy republic. For good reason, too. His advanced receiving metrics are absolutely bonkers, as I note here, and my venerable colleague Stan Son notes here.
But, just as we saw with Dontayvion Wicks’s and Xavier Worthy’s presumed usage in Week 5, there’s no guarantee in target vacuum succession. More on that later in the list. The same could be true for Alec Pierce, which means rookie Adonai Mitchell is a fine stash play.
Here’s what we said about him last week:
We know the Colts passing game isn’t stable right now. Mitchell is suffering the most of any of its wideouts: his -91 RecYOE is one of the worst figures in the league, and is dead last on the Indianapolis roster.
A reminder of Mitchell’s superlative athleticism, as per his NFL combine scores:
- 40-yard dash: 4.34 (97th percentile)
- Speed score: 117.1 (98th percentile)
- Burst score: 135.2 (96th percentile)
- Catch radius: 10.29 (92nd percentile)
Mitchell is an absolute athletic specimen, and Pierce has flashed spectacular-catch prowess so far.
There’s no reason folks with an empty bench slot—as mentioned before, I know this is a bit more of a hot commodity in the 2024 season—shouldn’t take a flier on Mitchell. If you’re thinking about Alec Pierce, chances are, so are Defensive Coordinators.
Roschon Johnson, RB, Chicago Bears (16.0% rostered)
He had two touchdowns last week in the Bears’ offensive explosion against the Carolina Panthers. His backfield-mate, D’Andre Swift, also had a good game. Here’s what I said about Johnson—and his very particular personnel groupings—in my article about considering him a FLEX value going forward:
Johnson’s best work has come around the goal line. The Bears lined up in the following formation for all three of his touchdowns: 6 OL, 1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, 13.3% of Johnson’s touches on rushing plays have come from this formation. We can assume that this is one of the Bears’ goal line packages.
In the same personnel grouping, D’Andre Swift has only touched the ball on 2.2% of his total rushing plays. He’s simply not being used in short-yardage situations when Waldron and Eberflus are stacking the box.
However, 86.9% of Swift’s rushing plays have him lining up in 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR and/or 1 RB, 2 TE, and 2 WR sets. That amounts to 79 total snaps in those groupings for Swift. While Johnson’s lined up in the same formations 72.9% of his rushing snaps, that’s only 22 total snaps. We can thus deduce: he’s only occasionally spelling Swift in these formations, and the touch distribution between the 20s should still favor Swift.
But there’s no denying Roschon Johnson is the goal line option, now. He’s lining up behind stacked offensive lines, and Swift isn’t. Johnson’s converted his four total carries behind 6 OL into three touchdowns.
You don’t just go away from that. What’s working is using Johnson in short-yardage, smash-mouth, throw-the-full-weight-of-our-offensive-line-at-you situations. And they’ve no reason to stop trying to use Swift in space throughout the meat of the field.
We could do a lot worse than invest in the end-zone nose of this on-the-rise Chicago attack. Notice where Caleb Williams is on that list of EPA+CPOE composite I posted above. Peep that, why don’t you?
Jordan Whittington, WR, Los Angeles Rams (9.4% rostered)
Another repeat with more insights. Too many to quote here, but go read my Jordan Whittington could be this year’s Puka Nacua in fantasy football article, in which I compare the route trees between Puka’s rookie season and Whittington’s. The similarities sent me down a rather promising rabbit hole.
They didn’t call Matthew Stafford “Stat Padford” arbitrarily. Whittington might be a sleeping volcano.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (16.8% rostered)
So all you Xavier Worthy managers out there can take a breath: Worthy ran 32 routes on Sunday, while Juju Smith-Schuster ran 28. Worthy was out there. So why Juju?
Put simply, this isn’t a Chiefs offense that has any interest in airing it out for explosiveness right now. At least not with regards to air yardage. They’re fine to let what playmakers they have try to generate yards after the catch in space.
Here’s Juju’s route chart from the Saints game. Look at how many of his routes have deliberate horizontal/east-west components to them:
And here’s Xavier Worthy’s from the same game. So much more diagonal/vertical:
Give me the veteran who’s beating zone coverages over the middle as opposed to the raw rookie who can stretch the field. Mahomes and this Chiefs offense are playing it safe and fine to grind out close wins with their stud defense.
Worthy will have his huge games, but JuJu has the higher floor.
Blake Corum, RB, Los Angeles Rams (18.5% rostered)
The Rams are on bye, so this obviously isn’t a play for this week. But, as a Rams fan myself, I feel as if the team is aware it’s going to come to a crossroads soon. If they can get healthy and grind out a few wins before the season gets too far along, Corum will likely remain an exhaustion-spelling, change-of-pace back.
However, if the Rams continue to lose and battle injuries, the wheels could come off fast. Should that happen, I imagine Blake Corum is going to see a heck of a lot more carries. His five carries for 35 yards and one reception for 8 yards against the Packers showed that he can be effective.
No reason not to add this guy. He was a ballyhooed fantasy football sleeper in the offseason and on draft day.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB, New York Giants (24.8% rostered)
Sorry—but how is Tracy Jr. still not more widely rostered?
Like, what gives? The rookie has absolutely carved out a role for himself, regardless of Devin Singletary’s (still up-in-the-air) health. The Giants praised him all preseason, and filled a feature role fantastically: 18 carries for 129 yards and one reception for a yard.
On that last bit about the reception: Important to remember that Tracy was a wide receiver at Iowa for four years. Danny Dimes loves to dump it off to his running backs, and I imagine Tracy will see more targets going forward. His role with a healthy Devin Singletary has yet to be determined, of course.
But it’s safe to say he’s far more rosterable than his current percentage indicates. If he’s out there in your league, try to make space for him.
Cade Otton, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (20.9% rostered)
How many of us have more consistent options than Cade Otton at tight end right now? In the last three weeks, Otton is fifth among tight ends with at least ten targets in routes run (93). He’s second in expected catch rate (81.0) and thirteenth in expected fantasy points (21.7).
These numbers are clear improvements from Weeks 1 and 2, and the Bucs’ passing offense isn’t one to sleep on right now. Otton’s worth a speculative add.
Ray Davis, RB, Buffalo Bills (7.0% rostered)
James Cook is banged up, and I plugged Ray Davis as one of the more valuable handcuffs/fantasy football sleepers in the league back in August. At the time, we were dealing with a Buffalo offense that had allowed James Cook to carry the ball inside the five-yard line four times. We thought Buffalo might be looking for a new back in the goal line package.
Enter 220lb Ray Davis, whose floor should be that of a touchdown vulture. His ceiling is absolutely unknown. He led all of college football in touchdown receptions last season, so we know he has the ability to shine in the passing game.
He’s the clear-cut backup to Cook in a Buffalo offense that looks different—sure. But maybe it’s different in a way that’ll benefit Davis and give him an immediate role.
Ty Johnson always gets buzz in this Buffalo offense, but if I’m stashing someone, I’m stashing Davis. Seems to be a higher ceiling, here.
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