Sure wasn’t hard to hear the collective scowls of D’Andre Swift owners all afternoon on Sunday, was it? In what was easily Swift’s second-best performance in a Bears uniform, he watched Roschon Johnson finish off two touchdown drives during which Swift’s production was essential.
Bummer, I know. Especially as someone who called D’Andre Swift a league-winner in August (I still believe it!). But I think there’s plenty of high-end value, still, in Swift. And there’s definitely potential flex volume for Roschon Johnson going forward. Is there, though, flex value?
Enough of a possibility to break it down by the advanced numbers. Let’s get to it.
Analysis
Let’s start here: I don’t believe that Roschon Johnson is the more valuable Chicago Bears running back. At his best, D’Andre Swift is still exhibiting his characteristic explosiveness: through five weeks, he has gains for 20 yards, 36 yards (this was a touchdown), and 42 yards. The last came against Carolina this past week on a reception in the flat.
Johnson’s best work has come around the goal line. The Bears lined up in the following formation for all three of his touchdowns: 6 OL, 1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, 13.3% of Johnson’s touches on rushing plays have come from this formation. We can assume that this is one of the Bears’ goal line packages.
In the same personnel grouping, D’Andre Swift has only touched the ball on 2.2% of his total rushing plays. He’s simply not being used in short-yardage situations when Waldron and Eberflus are stacking the box.
However, 86.9% of Swift’s rushing plays have him lining up in 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR and/or 1 RB, 2 TE, and 2 WR sets. That amounts to 79 total snaps in those groupings for Swift. While Johnson’s lined up in the same formations 72.9% of his rushing snaps, that’s only 22 total snaps. We can thus deduce: he’s only occasionally spelling Swift in these formations, and the touch distribution between the 20s should still favor Swift.
But there’s no denying Roschon Johnson is the goal line option, now. He’s lining up behind stacked offensive lines, and Swift isn’t. Johnson’s converted his four total carries behind 6 OL into three touchdowns.
You don’t just go away from that. What’s working is using Johnson in short-yardage, smash-mouth, throw-the-full-weight-of-our-offensive-line-at-you situations. And they’ve no reason to stop trying to use Swift in space throughout the meat of the field.
Bottom Line
This smacks a bit of a a J.K. Dobbins/Gus Edwards split, no? Or, at least, however that split might have been idealized in theory in Baltimore when Lamar Jackson was expected to lean on Dobbins between the 20s and Edwards in the red zone.
So, too, does it seem like Eberflus, Waldron, and Williams intend to utilize D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson. This is a Bears offense on the rise. We could do a lot worse than invest in the end-zone nose of this Chicago attack.
He may not be ready for weekly flex starts (unless, of course, you’re in a league deeper than 12 teams), but he’s one of the finer stash plays on the board for Week 6. The question ultimately comes down to: which is going to prove more consistent in this Bears offense—a goal line finisher, or a yards-churner?
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