(Pierce caught that pass in the featured image, by the way. That felt like a fitting way to begin a propaganda piece about him.)
Alec Pierce kicked down the door of the 2024 fantasy football season when he caught the 60-yard touchdown heard ’round the world from Anthony Richardson in Week 1. I broke down the stats of that throw in my NFL Next Gen Stats: Highlighting key stats from Week 1 column. In sum: it was absolutely nutbar, and actually historic in ways I detail in the piece.
Not only was Pierce on the receiving end of the offensive highlight of the year so far—which happened to be one of the very first—but he’s also the eighth-ranked wide receiver in PPR leagues. And yet, Pierce is still only 31.2% rostered in fantasy leagues. Really? What gives?
I’ve written about this dude ad-gosh-darn-nauseum, and we’re only two weeks into the season (here, here, and here). He’s got a matchup against a decent Bears secondary this week. The math works out that you’ve got just about a 69% chance that he’s available in your league.
That’s a pretty nice chance right there, if I do say so myself. Forgive me if I get a bit too passionate below. In the event Pierce is available in your league, here are some of his advanced metrics through two weeks.
Alec Pierce Analysis
I can’t even believe Alec Pierce isn’t even ranked among ESPN’s Week 3 wide receivers. We really have gotten skeptical of big games from speedy wideouts, haven’t we? Especially from unproven quarterbacks like Anthony Richardson, and former WR3s like Pierce.
Let’s start out with his plays in Week 1. This excerpt is pulled from an article I mentioned above. Here’s what I had to say of his 60-yard touchdown catch and 57-yard post route catch from Anthony Richardson:
Anthony Richardson 60-yard touchdown pass to Alec Pierce
Most impressive stat: 21.21 mph. That’s what Alec Pierce topped out at after the inward cut on this post route. To put it into perspective, we all thought Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy’s jet sweep speed on Thursday was game-breaking. He topped out at 18.45 mph, almost 3 mph slower than Pierce.
Tyreek Hill’s career-long 80-yard touchdown catch from Tua only saw Tyreek top out at 20.42mph.
Honorable mention: The pass traveled 65.3 yards through the air. That’s the third-longest in the NFL Next Gen Stats era. Wild.
Anthony Richardson 57-yard pass to Alec Pierce
Most impressive stat: 20.21 mph. That’s what Alec Pierce topped out at after the inward cut on this post route.
Outlook:
Richardson has found his new explosive threat. Pierce might be the ship most raised by Richardson’s rising tide. Pick him up on waivers.
I was so surprised Pierce went unnoticed on waivers this week that I was able to grab him myself in all my leagues. I think he has a chance to be a big-play threat for your FLEX every week.
Folks seem to be concerned that the return of Josh Downs (about whom another DKN analyst, Zach Thompson, wrote here) is going to really impact Pierce’s value. I just think the advanced metrics are too impressive so far this season for Richardson to all of the sudden look away from him. Especially after looking for him so much more in this last game.
On Sunday against the Packers, Pierce had five receptions for 56 yards and a touchdown. More promising? His targets more-than doubled in Week 2 (7) from Week 1 (3).
Right now, the two plays I broke down above are among NFL Next Gen Stats’s top-ten speed plays this season based on Alec Pierce’s figure. The only other wide receiver in the league with two top-ten speed plays: Calvin Ridley. Intriguing, no?
Bottom Line
One last non-exhaustive stat dump to convince you to go get Pierce:
- Pierce ranks second in the league among wideouts in Prime Targets (defined as receivers that are open and likely to convert a first down). He has six; the only person with more is Amon-Ra St. Brown (7).
- Pierce ranks sixth in the league among wideouts with over ten targets in EPA per target (expected team points added per target) with 0.89. Chris Godwin leads the league with a figure of 1.21 EPA/tgt.
- He ranks 15th in the league in average separation score (3.1 yards). Hanging among impressive names like Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, and Chris Godwin
Pierce is getting open, getting prime looks, and generating elite separation. He’s responsible for impressive team-wide value on every single one of his targets. The Colts aren’t just going to move away from this yet.
He’s a must-add for Cooper Kupp, Nico Collins, Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, (et-freaking-c.), owners. And, in general, he’s fantastic add for anyone who needs wideout help on their rosters.
Start him this week!
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