Last week, we found some enticing season-long NBA props at guard and forward. Today, it’s time to look at center, a position with some big names (and even bigger wingspans).
Tradition dictates that a center’s realm is inside the paint and on the glass, but the modern five doesn’t stop there. Passing, shooting and even ball-handling are skills modern big men have added to their repertoire, creating nightmare mismatches for opposing defenses.
As we head towards tip-off next month, here are three season-long values at center to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Victor Wembanyama OVER 11.5 rebounds per game (-115)
Normally, I’d advise against betting the over on a player just about everyone is in on. However, as with most things he does, Wembanyama is an exception to the rule. The French wunderkind took the basketball world by storm last season, winning Rookie of the Year and finishing second in Defensive Player of the Year voting.
After putting up an average of 10.6 rebounds as a rookie, expecting a full board increase might seem like a tall order. Look closer, and this total might be conservative.
Following the All Star break, Wemby’s game went to another level. Over his final 22 games, he averaged 23.5 points and 12 rebounds in less than 33 minutes per game. Keep in mind, San Antonio was one of the association’s worst teams; they had no reason to push the 19-year-old’s minutes. With the offseason additions of Chris Paul and UConn phenom Stephon Castle, there’s a not-so-crazy chance at a play-in spot for the Spurs. Holding back their young star won’t be so easy with something to play for.
Even if Wembanyama’s minute total stays the same, his second-half surge hints at the ability to pass this number handily. Generational talents tend to improve at an exponential pace; you don’t want to fade on greatness.
Alperen Sengun to average 23+ points per game (+110)
Since we’re on the topic of second-half breakouts, let’s stay in Texas. The Rockets went from dismal to dangerous over the season’s final months, winning 14 of their final 21 games. Although Sengun missed most of those contests due to an ankle sprain, there’s no question Houston’s offense runs through their center; he led the team in points and rebounds to go along with five assists per game.
All those numbers sound nice, but the jump from 21 PPG, Sengun’s average last season, to 23 PPG is a significant hurdle for any player. Luckily, the Turkish big has progressed rapidly since his rookie year, when he put up just 9.6 points. Further improvement at the age of 22, on a team that stayed largely the same this offseason, is more likely than not.
Modest improvements at the free throw line (69%), three-point range (30%) and minutes per game (32.5), while maintaining a team-leading 27% usage rate, could help pick up those extra points this season. At plus-money, there’s plenty of value on Sengun.
Dereck Lively II to average 8+ rebounds per game (-120)
While Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving got all the headlines, the Mavericks’ defense was crucial to their Finals run. The unit’s driving force was the two-headed monster of Daniel Gafford and Lively II at center. In nineteen regular season games together, the two averaged a combined 11.6 rebounds and 3.2 blocks. Lively II, who battled through both injuries and personal tragedy last season, still managed to pull down 6.9 rebounds per game over 22 minutes of play.
As a whole, those numbers aren’t eye popping, but the postseason is where the 20-year old truly emerged. Even though Dallas started Gafford in all of their playoff games, Lively II was the more effective player. On top of his team-leading 7.4 rebounds, he proved to be an absolute menace on defense.
The main barrier to Lively II reaching eight-plus rebounds is simply playing time, as Gafford is a quality veteran that can’t share the floor with another big. The main issue with this line of thinking is assuming Dallas and head coach Jason Kidd will continue to play their lottery pick rookie off the bench. A breakout is coming; it’s just a matter of when.
Given his insane potential on the boards (10.4 rebounds per 36 minutes), Lively II doesn’t need Gafford out of the game plan entirely. A mere 24/24 minute split should be enough to get the job done.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is barmy) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
