Last week, we found some guard props that could hit big this NBA season. Today, it’s time to look at the forwards, a position so ambiguous that it gives us room to find value in some unexpected places.
From slashers to shooters, wings come in all shapes and sizes. The common denominator? They are essential to building a winning basketball team. With any meaningful role, there’s an opportunity to buy or fade a player’s production.
As we head towards tip-off next month, here are three season-long values at forward to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Kawhi Leonard UNDER 24.4 points per game (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Paul George’s departure from the Clippers has created plenty of uncertainty in the betting market. A roster of two stars surrounded by high-quality role players sounds nice in theory, but Leonard’s extensive injury history looms large over Los Angeles. With only James Harden capable of driving the offense, more will be expected from Leonard on a per game basis.
The problem for the 33-year-old is that knee injuries tend to get worse in a sport built around running up and down. The Clippers are aware of this, as the front office picked up Derrick Jones Jr. and Nicolas Batum to go along with veterans Terance Mann and P.J. Tucker. Add it all up, and that’s plenty of wings that can play 20+ minutes on any given night.
It feels like people are ignoring Los Angeles’ depth in an assumption that Leonard and Harden will hog all the buckets. Kawhi hasn’t gone over 24 points per game in over three years, and with more wear and tear, backing him this season feels like a trap.
Klay Thompson OVER 3.3 three-pointers made per game (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Last season did not go to plan for Klay Thompson. A decline in play led to a demotion to the bench, capped off by an ugly 0-10 shooting performance against Sacramento in the play-in tournament. Despite expressing a desire to stay in the Bay, the feeling wasn’t mutual, and the Warriors let their franchise legend walk in free agency.
While Golden State looked to get younger, the defending Western Conference champion Mavericks brought in the future Hall of Famer on a three-year, $50 million dollar deal. The move gives Dallas veteran experience and a still-lethal shooter. Over the past three seasons, Thompson is averaging nearly 40% from three-point range on 9.7 attempts per game.
It’s hard to think of a player that NBA fans are more down on than Thompson. He’s not the superstar he once was, but Klay can still knock down plenty of threes (3.5 3PM last season), so expecting a decline in shooting volume makes little sense. The 34-year-old is now playing alongside Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in a projected starting role, so it’s possibly the best situation for any shooter in the association. Trust the track record and an improved role for this legendary marksman.
Anthony Edwards UNDER 27.0 points per game (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The exact opposite of Thompson is Anthony Edwards; an up-and-coming talent that impressed when we last saw him in the postseason. That makes him a prime fade candidate when targeting season-long props.
It’s only logical to assume the best is yet to come for this über talented youngster, but scoring isn’t linear. For a player with the fifth-highest usage rate last season (32.2 USG%), there isn’t much room for an expanded role. Karl-Anthony Towns is still a threat for 20+ points per game, while Mike Conley, Naz Reid, and Rudy Gobert will all get their touches.
The Timberwolves also made a draft-day deal to land Kentucky’s Rob Dillingham, moving a future first rounder and a pick swap to San Antonio. You don’t invest future assets into someone that will ride the bench all year.
Edwards averaged 25.9 points per game last season, the highest of his four-year career. The best is likely still to come, but Minnesota’s current roster construction and play style (seventh-slowest pace in 2023-24) isn’t conducive to a 27 PPG scorer.
Place your bets at DraftKings SportsBook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is barmy) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
