We are living in the age of guards; from unstoppable iso scorers to pass-first floor generals, it’s clear that the modern NBA revolves around ball-handlers.
With so much volume in the backcourt, plenty of counting stats accrue over an 82-game season. However, finding value is easier said than done. For every tempting over, there might be an under play that the betting public is sleeping on.
As we head towards tip-off next month, here are three season-long values at guard to target on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jalen Brunson UNDER 26.7 points per game (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jalen Brunson is the king of New York and last season was his coronation. In spite of a constant parade of injuries, JB led the Knicks to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals while putting up some monstrous stats down the stretch (31.1 PPG, 7.3 APG post-All Star break).
That run might have bettors bullish on Brunson’s offensive potential this season, but the sheer depth of a healthy Knicks team makes last year’s scoring output unlikely. A healthy Julius Randle is a good bet for over 20 points per game. OG Anunoby and offseason pickup Mikal Bridges should get plenty of work on offense. A deep bench will ensure that even Tom Thibodeau can manage Brunson’s workload most nights.
This pick is by no means a knock on one of the best players in the NBA. However, the Knicks might have the deepest rotation in the association; something would have to go wrong again for Brunson to demand the same level of usage this season.
De’Aaron Fox OVER 5.8 assists per game (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
De’Aaron Fox has never been shy about scoring the ball, but this assist total is simply too low. Last season’s Kings were a true two-man show between Fox and Domantas Sabonis, which forced the talented point guard into “hero ball” mode far too often. The end result was a modest 5.6 assists per game on a top-ten scoring offense.
By signing midrange savant DeMar DeRozan this summer, Sacramento has taken some of the pressure off of Fox. The move doesn’t mean Swipa won’t remain the driving force of Mike Brown’s offense; if anything, it should allow Fox to become more of a creator even if DeRozan eats into his total shot attempts.
In previous seasons, Fox has surpassed 6 and even 7 assists per game while maintaining a high scoring average. Fresh off of the highest usage rate of his career (31.0 USG), it’s not much of a stretch to think he can generate a meager 0.3 assist improvement.
Immanuel Quickley OVER 20+ points per game (+340 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Let’s get a little bold with our final play. As a key piece in last winter’s OG Anunoby deal between the Raptors and Knicks, Immanuel Quickley took advantage of his new role as an everyday starter. In 38 games with Toronto, IQ averaged 18.6 points and 6.8 assists, albeit on a mediocre 42% shooting from the field. He followed that up by signing a hefty five-year, $175 million dollar extension this offseason, a clear sign that the front office believes in the 25-year old.
Quickley’s production up north is nothing to sneeze at, but there’s potential for an even better second season with the Raps. Post-All Star break, he was second on the team in usage rate (24.4 USG), just above Scottie Barnes and just below R.J. Barrett. During that same stretch, Toronto was 6th in the league in pace.
Simply put, there should be plenty of opportunities for the offensive-minded Quickley to get buckets this season. As the main ball handler on a roster with little proven talent outside of Barrett and Barnes, IQ is in prime position to clear 20 points per game. At greater than 3 to 1 odds, it’s a bet worth making.
Place your bets at DraftKings SportsBook or by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is barmy) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
