September might mean football is back, but basketball fans know we’re less than two months away from the start of the NBA regular season. Still, with plenty of attention away from the hardwood, now is the perfect time to place some savvy futures bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
While long shot championship picks can offer up plenty of value, win totals are more of a slow burn. Bettors need to exercise some patience and caution. Any major injury to a superstar can upend an over, while a blockbuster trade could catapult a middling team to the top of their conference. Understanding roster construction and utilizing past trends is key to making a smart preseason bet.
With all that being said, here are four value over/under plays that could rake in plenty of cash for you this season.
New Orleans Pelicans OVER 46.5 wins (+100 on DraftKings SportsBook)
After years of untapped potential and wasted opportunities, the New Orleans Pelicans finally put it together last season. Oft-injured star Zion Williamson played 70 games. New Orleans boasted a deep roster that had the 6th best net rating in the NBA with 49 wins. In the offseason, the front office traded for former All-Star Dejounte Murray (without giving up any major contributors) and kept Brandon Ingram despite constant trade rumors all summer.
So why does this win total suggest a regression rather than a step forward?
The answer, as it always is with New Orleans, is Zion’s health. Williamson put together a relatively injury-free regular season, but he missed the team’s first round series against Oklahoma City in the playoffs. In addition, the team lost big men Jonas Valanciunas and Larry Nance Jr. without finding a solid replacement.
New Orleans will likely struggle down low, but over the course of the regular season, the sheer firepower of this roster should be enough to elevate them near 50 wins. Williamson’s injury history is scary, but the trio of Murray, Ingram, and C.J. McCollum are more than capable of keeping this team around .500 or better in the games Zion misses.
The concerns about the Pelicans are real, but a team this loaded at the guard and wing positions might not even need Williamson to finish with a winning record. As long as Zion plays 50 or more games, New Orleans is in position to contend with the best in the West.
Miami Heat UNDER 44.5 wins (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
“Heat Culture” is almost indescribable. Year after year, Erik Spoelstra’s crew manages to defy expectations and remain highly competitive despite lacking in talent compared to other Eastern Conference rivals.
However, the 2023-24 season uncovered some cracks in Miami’s armor. Despite a respectable 46 wins, they finished with the 8th seed in the East before losing in a gentleman’s sweep against the Celtics in the playoffs. While Jimmy Butler’s injury in the play-in game against Philadelphia effectively ended Miami’s season, he’s not the most reliable player; since 2017, Butler has averaged just under 60 games played per season.
Unlike New Orleans, the Heat are not in a position to win games when their best player isn’t on the floor. While Bam Adebayo is a bonafide All Star, the rest of the team is somewhat lacking. Tyler Herro is a score-first guard who offers little else. Terry Rozier is a solid fourth scoring option. Youngsters Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jovic showed potential last season but haven’t reached it yet. All of that, combined with a very quiet offseason, doesn’t exactly scream great record.
History suggests 45 wins is a tall ask for Miami; they’ve failed to reach that mark in four of their past six campaigns. With an older Butler, and most other East contenders improving, it’s going to take a lot for Spoelstra to get this group out of play-in range.
Los Angeles Clippers OVER 40.5 wins (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Every year, there’s a “hold your nose” pick, and this is it. You might not love watching the Clippers sans Paul George, but there’s more to like about this team upon closer inspection.
Off the bat, it all comes down to the Big Two (formerly Three): James Harden and Kawhi Leonard. Harden, acquired from the 76ers weeks into last season, is still the iso-heavy, ball-dominant guard we’ve watched for over a decade. In The Beard’s defense, he’s firmly amongst the best passers in the association, averaging 9.4 assists per game since 2020. The oft-injured, but still dangerous, Leonard played 68 games last season, but his body broke down again right before the postseason.
Although Harden and Leonard don’t sound like two guys capable of leading a quality playoff team at this stage of their careers, Los Angeles has a ton of depth. Tucker, Nicolas Batum, and Norman Powell are veteran wings who have played with Harden before. Ivica Zubac is one of the more underrated bigs in basketball, and offseason pickup Derrick Jones Jr. was a crucial part of the Mavericks’ run to the NBA Finals last spring. Other intriguing options, like defensive menace Kris Dunn and controversial but talented scoring guard Kevin Porter Jr. give Ty Lue plenty of bodies to throw at teams.
He might not be the same guy he was in Houston, but we’ve seen Harden lead a group filled with high-level role players to great success before. In the first year at the state-of-the-art Intuit Dome, the Clippers are a good bet to remain competitive all season, with or without Leonard.
Golden State Warriors UNDER 44.5 wins (-120 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
At the age of 35, Steph Curry put together another standout season in 2024. It still wasn’t enough to save the Warriors from elimination in the play-in game against the Kings. The result wasn’t a shock; regression from Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, combined with constant lineup reshuffling, made for a very flawed team.
The offseason wasn’t much kinder to the Warriors. Franchise legend Thompson left for Dallas, and the front office tried (and failed) to pull off mega-trades for Paul George and Lauri Markkanen. A couple of savvy signings in De’Anthony Melton and Buddy Hield help, but neither is the player that Thompson is, even at his advanced age. While internal improvement from Brandin Podziemski and Jonathan Kuminga is likely, will either establish themselves as a high-end number two option to play off of Curry? It’s hard to say.
Despite the roster shortcomings, the biggest issue facing the Warriors is their competition. The West is a juggernaut, and it doesn’t seem like Golden State did anything to keep up, let alone get better than the eight teams in front of them last year. As Curry enters his age-36 season, the team is counting on him to maintain his status as an elite superstar just to keep their 45-win pace from last season. That’s a tall order, and it doesn’t even guarantee the Dubs can hit the over.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is barmy) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
