We’re back to every team in action tonight, for Friday’s MLB slate. I’ll give you some of my favorite baseball best bets for tonight that you can tail on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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San Diego Padres at Tampa Bay Rays
The Pick: Padres moneyline +105
I was a bit perplexed to see the Padres as the underdog tonight against the Rays and Taj Bradley. It’s been a very month for Bradley, who sports an ugly 8.14 ERA through 21 innings. The 20 runs allowed this month is the most of any month and is just five less than he allowed through the entire first-half of the season. He’ll face a Padres offense that is strong against fastballs, owning a combined .368 wOBA with a .140 ISO against that pitch. If the recent stretch of baseball continues for Bradley, I would expect a short outing from him.
On the other side will be Martin Perez. The Padres have mixed up his pitch arsenal since being acquired and he’s now throwing his curveball as his primary pitch. His sinker, which used to be his primary pitch, has moved down to third on the list. With the curveball, opposing hitters have just a .156 wOBA against it. I like this move by the Padres and it’s helped reinvigorate Perez, who through the second half of the season has a 3.47 ERA through 36.1 innings with a .326 wOBA. All this, combined with a 32-22 record as underdogs for the Padres, makes them one of my top plays for tonight.
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins
The Pick: Giants team total over 2.5 runs through first five innings -110
The Giants will be facing a starting pitcher who throws, well, fastballs. Adam Oller is throwing his fastball 63% of the time in the two starts he’s made in 2024. It hasn’t been great, as opposing hitters quickly have a .337 wOBA and a .250 ISO against that pitch. It’s not even an overpowering fastball either, as he’s hovering around 93 mph when he throws it. The Giants can hit fastballs very well, so I’m expecting a nice outburst of offense from them tonight. Tonight’s expected lineup has a combined .342 wOBA with a .198 ISO against fastballs from right-handed pitching. I think this is one of the better way to attack this game, as Blake Snell is an overwhelming favorite against a Marlins team that cannot hit lefties at all.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Pick: Lourdes Gurriel Jr over 1.5 total bases +100
Gurriel Jr is such a great hitter against lefties. Coming into tonight, he has a .378 wOBA with a .178 ISO and a 143 wRC+ against them. Tonight, he’ll be facing Clayton Kershaw, who has been inconsistent on the mound. Kershaw, as has been the case, continues to throw his slider heavily, doing so about 44% of the time. Gurriel Jr handles sliders very well and currently has a .383 wOBA with a .294 ISO against that pitch through 52 plate appearances this season. In fact, he’s one of the only hitters in this lineup that hits sliders well along with Kevin Newman. I think this is a sneaky spot to take the over on his total bases, which is currently sitting at even money.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
