The US Open women’s singles semifinals are incredible. All four of the semifinalists are ranked inside the top four in the world. That includes the World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and World No. 3 Jessica Pegula, who are facing off in this semifinal match.
Here is my pick and prediction for the semifinal match between Sabalenka and Pegula.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Prediction, Preview
Aryna Sabalenka Preview
The three-peat is still alive for Aryna Sabalenka. She was pushed to the brink in the quarterfinals by Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova, but squeaked it out in the end. Sabalenka has a shocking level of consistency at the two hardcourt majors. Since 2023, there have been seven majors played on hardcourt, with this US Open being the eighth. She has made the final in all seven of those majors and won the title in four of them. This win over Jessica Pegula would bring her to her eighth straight hardcourt major final. While Sabalenka’s mental game can be a major variable at times, she is still the best player in the world when she locks in.
Jessica Pegula Preview
Jessica Pegula has also become an incredibly consistent player at hardcourt majors, especially the US Open. Pegula has now made the semifinals in four of the past five hardcourt majors. She went on a run to the US Open final in 2024, and that breakthrough gave her the confidence to perform at the Grand Slams moving forward.
Pegula has played marvelous tennis the past couple of years, most recently making the Cincinnati Open final just before heading to New York. However, the big criticism against Pegula, much like her father’s football team, has been her inability to “win the big one.” She is the third-best player in the world, but is 7-15 against Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina, the only two players ranked higher than her. If Pegula could defeat Sabalenka in this match and make her second career US Open final, it would be a massive achievement.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Pick, Best Bet
My best bet is for this match to go over 2.5 sets. It should be a great battle between Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula. While Sabalenka has a good career record against Pegula, it was the American who got the better of Sabalenka the last time they met. Their only head-to-head match in 2026 was in Berlin, where Pegula won in three sets.
These two are facing off in the US Open semifinals for the second straight year. They also played each other in the semifinals in 2025, where Sabalenka won in a three-setter. This match could really go either way, but whether it is Pegula or Sabalenka that comes out on top, it should require three sets.
Sabalenka required three sets in the quarterfinals against Linda Noskova, as did Pegula in her quarterfinal match against Emma Navarro. These two should trade blows back and forth in this semifinal and set up a big third set with a spot in the US Open final on the line.
