There is an incredible semifinal set between two Americans at the US Open. Ben Shelton finally broke through and beat Carlos Alcaraz on the big stage, and now he will face his good friend and compatriot Frances Tiafoe with a spot in the US Open final on the line.
Here is my pick and prediction for the all-American semifinal match between Shelton and Tiafoe.
Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton Prediction, Preview
Ben Shelton Preview
This has been a breakthrough tournament for Ben Shelton. Shelton has become a top-10 player in the world over the past couple of years, but hasn’t been able to beat the top players on the big stage. That all changed when he outlasted Carlos Alcaraz in an all-time five-set quarterfinal matchup on Tuesday night. Shelton is not only favored to make his first major final, but has a real shot to win this US Open.
Ben Shelton has made the US Open semifinals once before, but was dominated by Novak Djokovic in that match. This time around, Shelton is the favorite. However, it will not be an easy match against his fellow American Frances Tiafoe.
Frances Tiafoe Preview
Frances Tiafoe has made it to his third career US Open semifinal. Tiafoe has never made it past the quarterfinals at any other major before, but is now a three-time semifinalist at the US Open. He loves the energy of the New York crowd and always thrives in this environment. However, he has never made it that one extra step to the US Open final. In 2022, he lost to Carlos Alcaraz, and in 2024, he lost to fellow American Taylor Fritz. There is once again a fellow American in Tiafoe’s path as he looks to finally break through.
American Men’s Tennis Major Drought
This is a massive tournament for men’s American tennis. American women have been excellent in the 21st century, but the men have not won a major in 23 years. In 2003, there were two different American men, Andre Agassi and Andy Roddick, who won majors. There have been plenty of great American players over the past two decades, but none have been able to reach that mountaintop.
Since Andy Roddick in 2009, there had not been an American men’s major finalist until Taylor Fritz made the 2024 US Open final. It was Frances Tiafoe who held a 2-1 set lead over Fritz in that semifinal, before Fritz came roaring back to win in five sets. He then lost to Jannik Sinner in the final. Tiafoe was so close to being the American to break that 15-year drought of making a major final. He came up just short in that instance, but he now has a chance to break a much more important drought if he can win two more matches.
There is guaranteed to be an American man in this final. They would most likely face off against top-seeded Alexander Zverev, who is a big favorite against Karen Khachanov in the other semifinal. While Zverev finally had his major breakthrough at Roland-Garros earlier this year, he is not as terrifying an opponent as Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic have been over the past few years.
Frances Tiafoe vs. Ben Shelton Pick, Best Bet
My best bet for this match is under the “Both Win Set/Moneyline” market on DraftKings Sportsbook. My pick is on Ben Shelton/Yes in that market. The bet requires both players to win at least one set, but for Shelton to win the match. This should be a good battle between these two great players, but Shelton has an extra gear that Tiafoe does not. If Shelton plays at the level he did against Alcaraz, Tiafoe won’t be able to keep up.
As demonstrated in his semifinal, Tiafoe will never stop fighting. He can get on a hot streak and piece together enough great points to break Shelton and steal one set. However, Shelton should be the more consistent player and win this match in four sets.
