After a short slate of baseball yesterday, every team is back in action tonight, starting at 6:45 p.m. ET. I’ll give you some of my favorite baseball best bets for tonight that you can tail on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins
The Pick: Padres run line -1.5 +130
I’m going right back to the well with the run line against the Marlins tonight. I took it last night after writing up about it here and it was dicey for awhile! Thankfully, the game went to extra innings and the Reds scored seven runs in the 10th to easily cash the bet. Last night, the Reds were -108 on the run line. Tonight, the Padres, who are red hot on offense, are +130. The Padres are starting Martin Perez, who hasn’t exactly been a model of consistency. HOWEVER, this Marlins team is horrific against left-handed pitching, and that’s why I’m ok with looking past Perez. The Marlins expected lineup for tonight has a combined .280 wOBA with a .104 ISO and a 26% K% against left-handed pitching this season. Those numbers dip even further against sinkers, which is Perez’s primary pitch. The Marlins have a combined .266 wOBA with an .087 ISO against that pitch when thrown by a lefty.
On offense, the Padres will see Edward Cabrera. He hasn’t been as bad as his 5.96 ERA indicates, as his xERA currently sits at 4.59. I think it’s fair to say 4.59 isn’t exactly a great number either. He puts a lot of men on base as well, with a BB/9 of 5.2. When that happens, opposing hitters have a .393 wOBA against Cabrera with men on base and a .419 with men in scoring position. This really seems like a spot where the Padres should not only win but do so by at least two runs.
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
The Pick: Game total over 4.5 runs through first five innings -125
Not exactly an inspiring pitching matchup taking place in Milwaukee tonight. Scheduled to take the mound is Carson Spiers for the Reds and Aaron Civale for the Brewers. Civale hasn’t been a great addition to the Brewers rotation that needed an arm. I didn’t love the move to begin with and Civale backed me up by posting a 5.40 ERA with a .371 wOBA and six home runs allowed through 25 innings as a Brewer. Civale has allowed at least four runs in three of the five starts he’s made since being traded here. Both sides of the plate are hitting him hard and now he’ll face a Reds team thats averaging just over five runs per game over their last 10.
The Brewers, who just put up 34 runs in three games against the Braves, are also a real threat at the plate, clearly. Spiers struggles immensely against lefties, who have tagged him with a .361 wOBA. That’s a massive difference from the .248 wOBA he has against righties. The Brewers will have either four or five lefties in the lineup tonight with two of the first three hitting from the left side. Spiers has faced the Brewers once before and they tagged him for three runs through four innings of work back in April. I don’t have confidence in either pitcher today, so give me at least five runs through the first five innings.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Oakland Athletics
The Pick: Vlad Guerrero Jr. over 2.5 H/R/RBI +120
I really like this matchup for Guerrero going against A’s starter Mitch Spence. First and foremost, we have to acknowledge how good Vlad has been at the plate lately. Over the last 30 days, he has a .490 wOBA and a .366 ISO against right-handed pitching. Tonight, Spence will be primarily be throwing cutters and sliders. Combined, he throws those 74% of the time. Guerrero is hitting those extremely well, with a .550 wOBA and a .343 wOBA against those pitches respectively. Despite needing at least three hits, runs and RBI combined, I would not be surprised if he’s able to accomplish that tonight against the Athletics.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
