The MLB has six games scheduled after 6:10 p.m. ET Thursday night. I’ll give you some of my favorite baseball best bets for tonight that you can tail on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @SBuchanan24.
Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins
The Pick: Reds run line -1.5 -108
You don’t even need to be a betting analyst to know that betting on the Marlins to lose by at least two runs is fruitful! In a shock to no one, the Marlins have been one of the worst teams on the run line this season with a record of 54-61, which would have you down -23.7 units if you were to bet this all season long (the hell is wrong with you?). The Reds have been one of the best at 64-51, which would have you up 7.2 units. The pitching matchup for tonight is very lopsided, as we have Hunter Greene going for the Reds and Kyle Tyler for the Marlins. Greene is a dark horse Cy Young candidate, which was astutely pointed out by my colleague, Garion Thorne. He was 80-1 just a couple of weeks ago and now sits at 15-1! Greene will be taking on a Marlins lineup that tonight is projected to have a combined .303 wOBA with a .127 ISO and a 24.4% K% against right-handed pitching.
Greene has been pitching his best baseball for over a month now. Since June 30th, Greene has made six starts and has a 0.48 ERA with a 2.42 FIP, a .180 wOBA and an 11.1 K/9. He’s been nearly untouchable over this span, which has seen him allow no more than one run in all of them. Going up against the veyr light hitting Marlins, I like the Reds to win this game by at least two runs.
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
The Pick: Game total over 9 runs -110
Gone are the days when Kevin Gausman was a pitcher opposing hitters dreaded to face. Now, they’re ecstatic! He’s been abysmal and that’s probably putting it nicely. The second-half hasn’t done anything to turn his season around, as he’s made three starts and already has an ERA just under 5 with a .320 wOBA and a 4.94 FIP. This will be his second start against the Orioles this season and they tuned him up for six runs on six hits through 6.1 innings. The final nail in the coffin for me is that this game takes place in Toronto. This is where Gausman has been his WORST with a 6.39 ERA with a .360 wOBA and 10 of his 18 home runs allowed. The Orioles should have no issues with him tonight.
On the other side we have Dean Kremer. He returned to the Orioles rotation last month and has been very inconsistent since then. This has pushed his season numbers to a 4.39 ERA with an xERA of 5.02 and a 4.81 FIP. He’s allowing fly balls at one of the highest rates of his four year career, approaching over 44% of the balls in play. Kremer throws four different variations of a fastball, which are pitches the Blue Jays have handled well. I think we’re getting a lot of offense in Toronto tonight.
Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Pick: Bryce Harper under 0.5 strikeout +190
I’m not big on betting strikeout props, especially when it comes to under. But, this one caught my eye today. Jordan Montgomery is taking the mound tonight against the Phillies and for Harper to NOT strikeout is at +190. Montgomery is NOT a big strikeout pitcher at all. While he hasn’t been for a few years, his strikeout numbers are currently the lowest of his CAREER. His K/9 currently sits at 5.9, which indicates he is allowing A LOT of contact. His strikeout numbers are better against lefties but Harper has really good numbers against the sinker, which is the main pitch that Montgomery throws. I’m going to take a shot at him not striking out tonight at +190.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
