The semifinals have arrived in Paris! We’re down to four remaining competitors at Stade Roland Garros, with each player getting a guaranteed shot at a medal.
In this article, I will be breaking down my favorite DraftKings Sportsbook bet for Friday’s slate. Without further ado, let’s get into it.
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Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz -4.5 Games
The best player in the world is going to do best player in the world things. Analysis over.
Alright, fine. Let’s dive into this match.
Auger-Aliassime is actually putting together quite a tournament in Paris, very much earning the chance to compete for a medal, which he will do regardless of Friday’s result. The Canadian has taken down Daniil Medvedev and Casper Ruud in back-to-back rounds to reach this point, but the toughest test lies ahead in the hottest player on the planet.
Alcaraz has been a force of nature on clay in 2024, boasting a 16-3 record with 11 consecutive victories entering these semis. Heading into this tournament, he held a 1.19 dominance ratio on clay for the year with a ridiculous 33.3% break rate. That’s the stat that really pops out for this prop, as Carlos will need to break Auger-Aliassime at least three times to cover a 4.5-game spread in straight sets.
Speaking of Felix, let’s examine the head-to-head breakdown between these two players. On paper, it will likely catch your eye that Auger-Aliassime actually holds a .500 record against Alcaraz, which is something not many guys on tour can say.
However, digging a little deeper, it’s revealed that all three of the Canadian’s wins came in 2022 or earlier. Carlos has claimed three consecutive matches against him all in straight sets, including a very convincing 6-6 6-3 6-1 victory in the 2024 Roland Garros Round of 16 just two months ago.
Auger-Aliassime could certainly beat the loser of Novak Djokovic vs. Lorenzo Musetti to earn bronze, but he’s about to run into the buzzsaw that is Carlos Alcaraz in the semi-finals of this Olympic tournament.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
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