The 2024 MLB Draft begins on Sunday, July 14, at 6 p.m. ET on MLB Network. Whether it’s a shift in the scouting process or a result of the NIL rules in college sports, the MLB Draft seems less top-heavy with high school talent. The consensus top-10 prospect list has only two high school players, and the ratio has been higher in the past.
While more players stay in college longer, that doesn’t mean the talent of the class has fallen off. This year especially has some of the best college prospects we have seen recently. For years, the MLB Draft was different than the NBA or NFL Drafts because first-round picks weren’t expected to be seen in the majors for a few seasons and rarely ever had an immediate impact, even in the following season. The good news for baseball is that trend seems to be changing.
Pittsburgh Pirates rookie Paul Skenes was selected No. 1 in the 2023 MLB Draft and skyrocketed through the minor leagues. With only a handful of professional appearances, he was called up to the majors less than a year after he was drafted and has been on fire since the call-up. The 22-year-old has pitched in 11 games and is 6-0 with a 1.90 ERA. Skenes has struck out 89 batters in 66.1 innings while only walking 13. He will start the 2024 MLB All-Star Game for the National League and has the third-best odds to win the NL Cy Young Award (+500).
Skenes is the most notable 2023 MLB Draft success story, but he isn’t the only draft pick already in the bigs. Texas Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford (No. 4 overall, slashing .262/.324/.396), Los Angeles Angels first baseman Nolan Schanuel (No. 11 overall, made MLB debut a month after being drafted) and Atlanta Braves pitcher Hurston Waldrep (No. 24 overall, 0-1 in two MLB starts in 2024) have all seen big league action since being taken in the first round of last year’s draft.
Which 2024 MLB Draft prospects could be making waves at the major league level for their respective franchises this time next year?
Jac Caglianone, 1B, Florida
We don’t know landing spots yet, so the prospects could enter a situation where they are blocked at the major league level. Assuming he isn’t, Caglianone has a good chance to quickly move through the minors. He’s a two-way player that has already been compared to Shohei Ohtani. Over three years at Florida, Caglianone hit .355 with 75 home runs and 189 RBI. His ERA left something to be desired at 4.55, but he amassed a 12-6 record over 34 games and struck out 170 batters in 148.1 innings.
Going through rookie ball this fall and starting 2024 in the minor leagues should help Caglianone determine what his best role could be for his team. They may want to focus on his hitting and have him pitch sparingly if at all. Or, they could utilize him like a true two-way player and hone his pitching and DH him otherwise, similar to a healthy Ohtani. Even if it just as a pure hitter, Caglianone has the talent to be up at the major-league level by the 2025 All-Star break.
Charlie Condon, 3B, Georgia
Condon is arguably the best power hitter in this year’s class. The former walk-on spent two years with the Bulldogs and it’s hard to ignore his 62 home runs and 145 RBI. While the power numbers are impressive, Condon also hit .410 in his 116 career games at UGA. He slashed .410/.523/.909 and had an even 100 hits in 2024.
Condon can play outfield or the hot corner giving him some versatility no matter where he lands. He has consistently been mocked to either the Cincinnati Reds or the Colorado Rockies with the second or third pick in the draft. Cincinnati all of a sudden has a deep pool of infielders in their system, but they have shown they are fine moving players up that are deserving. He could easily hit was way through the organization and be put in right field for Cincinnati next year. If Condon lands in Colorado, it’s going to be tough to not capitalize on his power to fill seats in Coors Field.
Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
Wake Forest continues to churn out pitching prospects and Burns is one of the most exciting. Some scouts have said that depending on the landing spot, he could end up being added to a needy bullpen in the fall of 2024. Burns spent the first two years of his college career at Tennessee, but transferred to Wake Forest for his last season. The pitching coaches figured something out with Burns because he took a huge step forward. He started 16 games in 2024 and finished with a 10-1 record and a 2.70 ERA. Burns struck out 191 batters in just 100 innings and was named the ACC’s Pitcher of the Year.
Burns features a typical four-pitch mix with a fastball, changeup, curveball and slider. His fastball is known to sit in the high 90s, while touching 102. While fast, the 6’3” release is so high that scouts have said that his fastball is easier to see despite the speed. Burns isn’t a one-trick pony, though, as his best pitch is arguably his slider which had a 60% swing-and-miss rate. If he can throw his fastball more consistently, he could be a starter, but Burns could begin his career as a reliever.
Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
The best southpaw in the draft shouldn’t make it out of the top 10. The 6’3” lefty spent all three years of his collegiate career playing for the Razorbacks. He was super consistent picking up 7-2, 8-2 and 9-2 records over the last three seasons. Smith’s improvement was noticeable as he tallied a 4.66 ERA in his first year, 3.64 ERA in his second and a 2.04 ERA in 2024. He only pitched 84 innings last season, but allowed just 19 earned runs on 41 hits while striking out 161. The lefty was named the SEC Pitcher of the Year and set a record for strikeouts per nine innings (17.3 per nine innings).
The concern with Smith is that he did have Tommy John surgery in high school so his elbow has already been surgically repaired once. The team that drafts him could be slow with his progression to try and lessen the chance for an injury. Smith doesn’t have a typical delivery and reminds some scouts of Chris Sale and his 3⁄4 slot. He throws a mid-90s fastball that can touch 100, a slider and a splitter. His slider is deadly and moves a ton, while the bottom drops out of his splitter making it tough to locate but equally as tough to hit. If he struggles with his control, he may not move up quickly. If he lands with the right team — the St. Louis Cardinals at No. 7, the Kansas City Royals at No. 6 and the Los Angeles Angels at No. 8 — Smith could dominate early and have a similar trajectory and timeline that Skenes had early this summer.