The Houston Astros find themselves in a position few thought they would be in entering the season: trailing the Oakland Athletics in the American League West standings and the Astros will look to take strides forward in erasing that deficit in Houston against the Athletics on Monday.
Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros (-180, 9)
The Astros give rookie Spencer Arrighetti the start on Monday, who’s surface level numbers are as rough as it gets with a record of 0-4 with an 8.44 ERA, but the advanced numbers show Arrighetti has pitched better than this and is due for positive regression.
Arrighetti’s fielding independent is more than three points lower than his ERA at 5.22 with 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings with all five of his starts coming against teams ranked in the top 13 of MLB in runs per game.
This time around, Arrighetti is facing an Athletics lineup entered Sunday 22nd in scoring with just under four runs per game and second-worst in runs per game on the road with 3.3 runs per game.
The Athletics turn to Roas Stripling for the start on the mound, who’s six losses lead the American League and has advanced numbers showing he’s performed better than his 5.14 ERA would indicate.
Stripling has a 3.73 fielding independent with just 0.9 home runs and 2.1 walks per nine innings allowed and is backed up by a solid bullpen.
The Athletics back up Stripling with a bullpen that entered the weekend ninth in ERA with a mark of 3.35 while the Astros enter having allowed three runs or fewer in three of their last four games.
With both starting pitchers having underlying numbers that point towards positivity and the Athletics difficulties driving in runs on the road, a sneaky pitchers duel will break out in Houston on Monday.
The Play: Athletics vs. Astros Under 9 Runs
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