It feels like the 2024 MLB season just started, yet we are already one month in. The dog days of summer are looming, and teams are starting to settle into their respective rhythms while trying to dodge the five scariest words of the early part of the season: [pitcher] is dealing with elbow discomfort.
As the dust settles on April and we get into May, let’s take a look back at the first month of the season, analyzing the good, the bad and the ugly.
2024 MLB season: First Month Recap
Biggest surprise teams
When you look across the division standings going into May, the Los Angeles Dodgers, Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves on top of their respective divisions all make sense as they were favored to win them. The biggest surprise, though, is the AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians. They are 19-10 and have picked up big series wins so far against the Seattle Mariners, Minnesota Twins and Boston Red Sox. Cleveland started the season with +350 odds of winning the division and has increased those odds to +155 at DraftKings Sportsbook. They are even now favored to make the playoffs at -165.
The Guardians haven’t run away with the division quite yet, as the Kansas City Royals are hanging tough. The Royals are 19-13, and if the playoffs started on May 1, they would have earned one of the coveted AL Wild Card spots. All eyes were on starting pitcher Cole Ragans coming into the season, but it has been Seth Lugo (5-1, 1.60 ERA) and Brady Singer (2-1, 2.62 ERA) who have been the best on the mound for Kansas City. If Bobby Witt Jr. (.315/.363.548) and Salvador Perez (.355/.415/.598) can stay this hot at the plate for the rest of the season, the Royals could be heading to the playoffs for the first time since winning the World Series in 2015.
While they aren’t division leaders, the Oakland Athletics and Washington Nationals haven’t started as poorly as they were expected to. The Athletics will be leaving Oakland at the end of the season, but for now, they have gotten out to a 14-17 start and are within three games of the division lead. Washington had +10000 odds to win the NL East, and while they are currently fourth in the division, the Nationals are only 1.5 games back of an NL Wild Card spot. Washington has +2500 odds to make the playoffs at DraftKings Sportsbook and could be a sleeper pick at the end of May.
Teams that underperformed
There were some teams that were expected to be bad this season, whether it was due to the lack of good off-season moves or changes in the front office. The Chicago White Sox were expected to be one of the bottom-of-the-league teams this season despite being in a winnable AL Central. Chicago had +4000 odds to win the division and then went 6-24 in April, tallying the lowest wins in the league. The White Sox are now +25000 to win the division and +2500 to make the playoffs, the latter odds likely being where they are because there are still five months to go in the season. The fewest amount of wins by a team in the modern era (since 1901) came in 1916 as the Philadelphia Athletics went 36-117. At this point, Chicago is projected to win 36 games this season (by averaging six wins per month), which could make it the worst team since 1901.
The Houston Astros went 90-72 last season, winning the AL West. The Astros knocked out the Twins in the American League Division Series but then fell to the eventual World Series champion Rangers in the American League Championship Series. Manager Dusty Baker retired, and Joe Espada was named his replacement. It has been a rough start to the Espada era, as Houston finished April with a 10-19 record. Despite the poor record, Houston has the third-best team batting average (.263) and fifth-best OPS (.744). It feels like the pitching staff can only improve as it has the fourth-worst team ERA (4.89 ERA) and WHIP (1.46). The Astros opened the season with the best odds to win the AL West at +110 and have already fallen to +310 after April. Houston is now favored to miss the playoffs (-155).
Surprise players
Dodgers outfielder-turned-shortstop Mookie Betts leads all hitters with a .377 average. He had the second-best odds of winning the NL MVP Award, so this was expected. What wasn’t expected in April was the rise of Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm. He finished the month slashing .366/.438/.598 with the second-highest batting average in the league. Bohm added 12 doubles, four home runs and 30 RBI in April and has been a pivotal part of the Phillies having a 20-11 record going into May.
The Orioles’ youth movement has had its ups and downs but has largely been filled with ups. While Jackson Holliday was called up and promptly sent back down to Triple-A, Gunnar Henderson has been able to stay up at the major-league level. More than that, he finished April slashing .291/.356/.624 and was tied for the home run lead with 10.
Starting pitcher injuries have been brought to the forefront of the league this year with the amount of early elbow injuries. It feels like the worst time to be a reliever and make the transition to being a starter and having to pitch more. Reynaldo Lopez and Jordan Hicks were both relievers who were converted to starters after signing with new teams this offseason. The experiment has paid early dividends as Lopez tallied a 2-1 record and a 1.50 ERA for the Atlanta Braves, while Hicks finished the month 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA for the San Francisco Giants.
Players who underperformed
Slow starts are common as hitters transition from spring training to the regular season. Typically, we don’t get too worried about them, but when they are still slumping at the end of the first month, concern begins to build. Astros first baseman Jose Abreu may be the worst case, as he hit a whopping .099 with just a .156 on-base percentage. He signed a three-year, $58.5 million deal ahead of the 2023 season and, heading into May, has been sent down to the team’s Triple-A affiliate to “get his timing back.” Abreu heads down after posting the worst WAR (wins above replacement) in the league with a -1.5. For reference, the average WAR for a full-time position player is two, per Sabermetrics.
Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena is an electric player with the speed to turn a double into a triple in the blink of an eye. Since 2021, though, he has been declining at the plate, batting .274, .263 and .254 in the last three seasons. Arozarena is hitting just .139 to start the season and looks to have lost some of his pop with only two doubles and three home runs so far.
San Diego Padres starter Joe Musgrove had been one of the team’s better pitchers over the last two seasons. He finished 2022 with a 10-7 record and a 2.93 ERA and followed that up with a 10-3, 3.05 ERA campaign last season. Musgrove has been riding the struggle bus to start 2024 with a 3-3 record and 6.94 ERA. San Diego has been able to overcome Musgrove’s performance and is 15-18, but the team needs him to turn his season around to try and compete in a tough NL West.
While Lopez and Hicks have had success making the transition from reliever to starter, not everyone has figured it out yet. White Sox starter Garrett Crochet made the transition this year, and the hope was that the fireballer southpaw would be able to dominate lineups while eating innings. That hasn’t happened yet, as he posted a 1-4 record and a 5.97 ERA in April. He isn’t getting much run support, but that doesn’t excuse him allowing 23 earned runs in 34.2 innings.
Final Thoughts
The key to a successful season is sustainability. Having a great April helps to lay a good foundation, but it doesn’t mean a lot if the team struggles the rest of the way. The 2024 season had more left in it than we have seen so far. Strong starts can fade, and slow starts have plenty of time to turn around. The biggest takeaways from the first month of the season is that most divisions are more up for grabs than we previously thought, the postseason could be determined by which team had the depth to survive its elbow injuries, and the cry from fans for robot umpires has never been louder.