The Chicago Cubs entered Saturday a half-game out of first place in the Nation League Central and though it is just April, will look to keep pace in the division with a golden opportunity at home against the Miami Marlins to do so.
Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs (-120)
Kyle Hendricks, who has had a rough season thus far, gets the start on the mound for the Cubs, posting a 12.71 ERA through four starts with seven home runs allowed in 17 innings.
Much of the issue for Hendricks is that three of these four starts have come on the road as he has some pretty large career home and road splits.
First his career, Hendricks has a 3.23 ERA at home with 1.8 walks and one home run per nine innings allowed compared to a 3.97 ERA with 2.2 walks and 1.1 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Working to the advantage of Hendricks is the Marlins’ inability to score runs, entering Saturday 24th in the league with 3.65 runs per game and tied for 26th with 0.8 home runs per game.
Countering on the mound for Miami is Edward Cabrera, who is making just his second start of the season after starting the season on the injured list. In 2023, walks were a big issue for Cabrera, posting a 4.24 ERA and 4.43 fielding independent with 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings but also six walks per nine innings allowed.
In his first start of the season, Cabrera was in peak form against the San Francisco Giants with one run and one walk allowed in six innings while striking out 10 batters, but the bullpen could not hold the 3-1 lead he handed off to the bullpen, resulting in a 4-3 loss.
Both bullpens enter this game quite taxed after Saturday’s doubleheader and the Cubs have both the better depth and results this season, entering Saturday 18th in bullpen ERA with a 4.15 ERA while the Marlins entered 29th with a 5.62 ERA.
With the wind likely blowing in on Sunday, it will help keep the ball in the yard for Hendricks while Cabrera’s walks will remain an issue and help the Cubs score a win on Sunday.
The Play: Cubs -120
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