The 2024 MLB season began with a two-game series in Seoul, South Korea that the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres split. Opening Day is still set for Thursday, March 28; every team will be in action, weather permitting.
As we get ready for the MLB regular season, let’s take a look at what each team’s best and worst-case scenarios are for the 2024 season.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Best Case — World Series
Arizona is tied for the second-best odds to win the NL West at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Diamondbacks have +1000 odds and are tied with the San Francisco Giants while trailing the Los Angeles Dodgers (-450). Arizona made it to the World Series last season, and it looks like it has only improved. They added some bats in Joc Pederson and Eugenio Suarez, and went out and signed Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery to go along with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly.
Worst Case — Finish 4th in division, miss the playoffs
The NL West is going to be tough this year. The Dodgers, Giants and San Diego Padres could all win the division, and with the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves looking strong, means that there could only be one or two Wild Card teams from this division. If Arizona finishes with a good record, but in fourth place in the division they could miss the playoffs.
Atlanta Braves
Best Case — Win World Series
The ceiling for the Braves is a World Series ring. They returned most of their heavy hitters from last season’s lineup and made moves in the offseason to bolster their rotation and bullpen. It did cost Atlanta most of its depth, so an injury or two could de-rail the season. The Braves are projected to not only win the NL East (-240) but have the second-best odds (+450) to win the World Series.
Worst Case — Miss the playoffs
The Phillies have given the Braves an early exit in the playoffs the last two postseasons. Atlanta lacks depth, and an injury to Spencer Strider, Ronald Acuna Jr., or Matt Olson could easily throw off its season. The NL Wild Card race is going to be a tight one so if the Braves don’t win the division, they could miss the playoffs entirely.
Baltimore Orioles
Best Case — World Series
The Orioles’ acquiring Corbin Burnes this offseason helps to provide a solid foundation for its pitching rotation. Baltimore’s youth movement is set to pay off with Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson set to lead the lineup. The Orioles are tied with the New York Yankees with the best odds to win the AL East (+185), and if the backend of their rotation can step up consistently, they are set up to at least play in the World Series.
Worst Case — Miss the playoffs, young players take a step back
A lot of faith is being put in Burnes, who had a 10-8 record and a 3.39 ERA a year ago. He took a step back but should get more run support with the O’s. But what if the young players for Baltimore don’t develop as fast or even take a step back? If 2023 was an anomaly, and Rutschman and Henderson regress, it could be a long year for the Orioles, who will constantly have to toy with the puzzle of how many chances to give players before sending them down and trying out another prospect.
Boston Red Sox
Best Case — Have young players develop, stay healthy
Injuries continue to plague the Red Sox. Last year, it was Trevor Story, and this year, Lucas Giolito will miss the entire season. The focus for 2024 in Boston needs to be the further development of Jarren Duran, Triston Casas and Ceddanne Rafaela. The Red Sox could be a year away from being back in the AL East mix.
Worst Case — More injuries
Boston is already expected to finish in last place in the AL East. The Red Sox are long shots to even make the playoffs, so the worst-case scenario just involves a late-season injury to Rafael Devers that affects his availability for next season. Also, if Casas and Rafaela struggle, the Red Sox will have more positions to address in the 2025 offseason.
Chicago Cubs
Best Case — Deep playoff run
The Chicago Cubs have the best odds to win the NL Central installed at +185. Chicago brought back Cody Bellinger and should benefit from the Brew Crew not having a good year. The Cubs’ lineup looks like it will hit for more power, and there is excitement in the rotation for Shota Imanaga. I’m not ready to sign off on Chicago winning the World Series, but a solid playoff run could easily be in the cards.
Worst Case — Miss the playoffs, back-end of lineup struggles
Chicago isn’t likely to just run away with the NL Central. The St. Louis Cardinals and the Cincinnati Reds should be in the running. If guys like Michael Busch, Mike Tauchman and Yan Gomes struggle, the Cubs could struggle to find suitable replacements to avoid a down year.
Chicago White Sox
Best Case — Don’t lose 100 games
The White Sox are not projected to be good this year, with a win total line of 61.5. Another way of looking at this is whether or not Chicago will lose more than 100 games. This is a year of evaluation for the White Sox and they should use 2024 to try out players at various positions and roles with the team to try and build for the future.
Worst Case — Lose 100 games
When you’re not projected to do very well, the worst-case scenario is just about the future. Similar to Boston, it would be having Luis Robert Jr. having a late injury that throws off his 2025. Also, if the rotation falls apart, that would bring so many unexpected holes to fill in the offseason.
Cincinnati Reds
Best Case — Win the division, make the playoffs
The Reds aren’t far off from competing in the NL. I think they will even compete this year and win the NL Central, but injuries and a suspension to Noelvi Marte look like they could sidetrack the start of the year. Still, the season is six months long, and the Reds have pieces in place to step up. If they can get consistent outings from their rotation, Cincy could win the division and make the playoffs.
Worst Case — Finish fourth or worst in the NL Central
Cincinnati finished third in the division last year, 10 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers. The Reds benefitted from down years from the Pittsburgh Pirates and the St. Louis Cardinals. Pittsburgh projects to be bad, but most expect the Cards to bounce back. If Cincy struggles, and the highly touted prospects don’t pan out, they could back to the bottom of the divisional barrel.
Cleveland Guardians
Best Case — Win the Division
Cleveland is being overlooked this year but could still win the division. If Carlos Carrasco can bounce back, and if the Guardians decide to hold onto Shane Bieber for the season, they would just need someone to step up alongside Jose Ramirez in the lineup to keep them in the running.
Worst Case — Finish 4th in the division
Cleveland can contend this year for the division, but I don’t think they do. The Guardians have Bieber for now, but his name continues to come up in trade talks. I like Steven Kwan, Ramirez and Josh Naylor, but if the back end of the order struggles, it’s going to be a long season.
Colorado Rockies
Best Case — Nolan Jones’ breakout
The most exciting thing for the Rockies this season is Nolan Jones. He is expected to bat third in the team’s lineup and could end up being the player they build around for the future. It would also be good for Colorado to see shortstop Ezequiel Tovar continue to develop after signing him to an extension during the spring.
Worst Case — Lose More than 100 games
The Rockies are in one of the toughest divisions in baseball and have to play 81 games at the most hitter-friendly park in the league. Colorado is expected to finish dead last in the division, and the worst-case scenario for this team would be losing more than 100 games, Kris Bryant continuing to struggle, and Jones not panning out as a star.
Detroit Tigers
Best Case — Win AL Central
The Tigers are one of the more exciting teams thanks to Parker Meadows, Matt Vierling, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Colt Keith. If Tarik Skubal can be the ace that the Tigers need him to be and the lineup can step up from the influx of youth in it, they could win the AL Central.
Worst Case — Finish in 4th in division
If the hitters don’t pan out and the veterans Detroit added to the rotation are washed, it could be another bad year for the Tigers. They finished six games below .500 last season and the worst-case scenario this year would see the team take a step back.
Houston Astros
Best Case — World Series
The Astros have the third-best odds to win the World Series this year (+750). They will be missing Justin Verlander to begin the year, but if he looks like himself when he returns, that’s a heck of a midseason jolt that could help the team.
Worst Case — Miss Playoffs
The Astros have the best odds to win the division, but the reigning World Series champion Texas Rangers haven’t gone anywhere. Speaking of midseason returns, if Texas can hang throughout the first half of the year, its rotation could be bolstered by Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. If the Seattle Mariners have a good year, the Astros could be on the outside looking in of the playoffs.
Kansas City Royals
Best Case —Win the AL Central
Kansas City has a chance to go from worst to first in just one year. I really think that the season-ending injury to Vinnie Pasquantino threw off the team’s 2023 campaign, plus they had Jordan Lyles start the year 0-12 on the mound. The Royals could have found their ace of the future in Cole Ragans and if Brady Singer can step up, they could surprise everyone and win the division.
Worst Case — Loss 100 games, again
Salvador Perez’s career is likely winding down. If Father Time gets to him early, the prospects don’t pan out for KC and the rotation struggles, they could lose 100 games for the second year in a row.
Los Angeles Angels
Best Case — Ron Washington wins Manager of the Year
The Angels are entering the post-Shohei Ohtani era and are back to “just” having Mike Trout on the team. Similar to other teams that are long shots to miss the playoffs, just developing is going to be a win at the end of the year. Nolan Schanuel has a lot of upside, and Los Angeles would greatly benefit from Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and Tyler Anderson taking steps forward in the rotation.
Worst Case — Everyone is that Wolverine meme with the picture, but it is Ohtani
The Angels allowed Ohtani to walk in free agency, and it could end up derailing their season. Los Angeles has lost at least 80 games every year since 2016, not counting the shortened COVID-19 season in 2020, granted it had a losing record that year, too. If Los Angeles loses more than 90 games and then has to watch Ohtani win the World Series across town, that would be the worst-case scenario.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Best Case — World Series
Los Angeles is built to win this season. The Dodgers added Ohtani, and even though he won’t be pitching this season, he is expected to still be the team’s designated hitter for most of the season. Los Angeles has one of the better lineups in baseball, and if its rotation can get healthy, they could win 100 games for the fifth season in a row, not counting COVID.
Worst Case — Ohtani banned for off-the-field stuff
Listen, this isn’t going to happen. There is no shot that they ban the best player in baseball for any lengthy amount of time. The worst case is really that they struggle to stay healthy on the mound. Yoshinobu Yamamoto continues to have trouble adjusting to the MLB, and the team misses the playoffs.
Miami Marlins
Best Case — Wild Card team
In all honesty, Miami shouldn’t sniff the playoffs this year. The Marlins are not expected to be good, but the lineup could make some news if guys like Josh Bell, Jazz Chisholm and Bryan De La Cruz can help Luis Arraez. The pitching rotation will also need to stay healthy as they will already be missing Sandy Alcantara.
Worst Case — Finish last in the NL East
The Washington Nationals are expected to be the bottom team in the division, and Miami is projected fourth. If the Marlins suffer an injury or two to the top of the lineup or the rotation, it is going to be very hard to compete this season. The worst-case scenario is that they finish last in the division and it looks like even Alcantara returning next season won’t be enough to have them competing.
Milwaukee Brewers
Best Case — Win NL Central
The Brewers won the division last year, and some don’t expect them to drop much even after they traded away Corbin Burnes. Milwaukee’s season likely depends on how well the young players on the roster do. Jackson Chourio is about to play in his first big league game while not being old enough to legally drink. If Chourio, Sal Felick and Brice Turang can play well, the Brew Crew could win the division again.
Worst Case — Finish 4th or worse in the division
Burnes being in Baltimore leaves a hole at the front of the rotation, and Milwaukee will be counting on Fredy Peralta and DL Hall to make up the slack. This rotation could easily struggle in the division and throughout the season, and if they can’t consistently keep opponents off the scoreboard, the Brewers could finish low in the NL Central.
Minnesota Twins
Best Case — Deep Playoff Run
It’s pretty cut and dry for Minnesota, as their scenarios for the season rely on the team’s ability to make the playoffs. They have the best odds to win the AL Central at -115, likely due to the top of the lineup and pitching rotation. No team should run away with this division, but the best case for the Twins is that they make the playoffs and make it to the AL Championship Series for the first time since 2002.
Worst Case — Miss Playoffs
With the Central being as close as I think it will be, Minnesota’s worst-case scenario is that they miss the playoffs entirely. If the back half of the lineup struggles and Pablo Lopez is the only serviceable starter, the Twins could be sitting at home come October.
New York Mets
Best Case — Make the postseason
New York has been overlooked this offseason, but the Mets still have Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso leading the way. Starling Marte had a brutally bad stretch in 2023, and if he, Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty can step up, the Mets could sneak into the playoffs as a Wild Card team.
Worst Case — Finish fourth or worst in the division
Kodai Senga is starting the season hurt, and the rotation is otherwise full of veterans. While many teams like to use a veteran to eat up innings as its No. 5 starting pitcher, you can make an argument that New York has five innings eaters in the rotation until Senga gets back. The return of Edwin Diaz is highly anticipated, but the bullpen will likely be tasked with narrow leads if any, putting more pressure on them to play well. If Alonso and Lindor struggle with the rest of the lineup, the Mets could finish toward the bottom of the division.
New York Yankees
Best Case — World Series
The addition of Juan Soto makes the Yankees’ lineup even scarier. He adds some protection to Aaron Judge and should benefit in his own right from playing at Yankee Stadium. New York should hit for plenty of power this season, giving its starting pitchers ample run support, which ends with a World Series ring in the team’s best-case scenario.
Worst Case — Miss Playoffs
The AL East is not going to be easy. New York, Baltimore, the Toronto Blue Jays and the Tampa Bay Rays could all be in the mix for not only a division title but Wild Card spots. If the Orioles win the division and teams in the AL West take one or two of the Wild Card spots (Astros, Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners), then the Yankees could end up missing the playoffs entirely for the second season in a row.
Oakland Athletics
Best Case — Develop talent and get better
The A’s are not expected to compete in the AL West and Moneyball is growing very outdated. Oakland needs to focus on the development of Zack Gelof, as he could be the foundational piece they build around. The A’s could go ahead and get players like Darell Hernaiz and Denzel Clark some big-league playing time to see if they can spark some life into the franchise.
Worst Case — Everybody stinks, and they don’t have any more clarity on where they are playing in the future
The Athletics lost 112 games last year. The front office is trying to move the team to Las Vegas, so it is hard for the fans to continue buying into a team that is, for one, not very good and, for another, trying to leave. The worst-case scenario is another 110+ loss season and none of the young talent on the team showing much development.
Philadelphia Phillies
Best Case — World Series
The Phillies won’t have it easy in the NL East, but their lineup is one of the better ones in the league. The weakest part of their batting order could be starting with Brandon Marsh down in the No. 8 spot. Not many teams can say that they have seven hitters that they don’t really have to worry about, and if you throw in Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola at the front of the rotation, a World Series doesn’t seem farfetched.
Worst Case — Miss Playoffs
While Wheeler and Nola should be good, what if the back end of the rotation struggles? Ranger Suarez, Cristopher Sanchez and Spencer Turnbull could all have ERAs over 4.00 and a losing record if they underperform. It looks like the Philadelphia lineup doesn’t have problems until the bottom of it, but if they pick up some injuries or have some struggles at the top of the lineup, they could miss the postseason entirely.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Best Case — Develop young talent
When will Pittsburgh pull the trigger and call up Paul Skenes? A rotation of Mitch Keller, Martin Perez, Jared Jones, Bailey Falter and Marco Gonzales doesn’t project to have Pittsburgh competing. if you look at mlb.com’s prospects for the Pirates and filter by ETA to the majors, all six of the 2024 prospects are pitchers. Pittsburgh will likely be sellers at the trade deadline, but they need to work on getting their young talent meaningful innings this season.
Worst Case — Lose 100 games
The Pirates ended a streak of back-to-back 100-loss seasons, only dropping 86 games last year. Pittsburgh is expected to struggle with the rotation, bullpen and bottom half of its lineup. If the team underperforms in all three areas and sells some key pieces at the trade deadline, they could be looking at a 100-loss season.
San Diego Padres
Best Case — Playoff berth
The San Diego season doesn’t have a wide margin of error. If the Padres emerge from the chaos that will be the NL West and make the playoffs, that would be a win for the franchise. They watched the reigning NL Cy Young winner move to a division rival in the San Francisco Giants, traded Juan Soto to the Yankees, and saw the Arizona Diamondbacks add two strong southpaws to its rotation. The World Series is obviously the best-case scenario for any team, but making the playoffs after all three of those things would be a win.
Worst Case — Miss the playoffs
I guess a more specific worst-case scenario would be for the team to finish in fourth place in the division. The Padres should beat out the Colorado Rockies, but the worst-case scenario for them really is just that they miss the playoffs. San Diego doesn’t seem to be a team that has the potential to lose 100 games, so the floor isn’t too low.
San Francisco Giants
Best Case — Playoff berth
Like three other teams in the NL West, the best-case scenario is making the playoffs. This would likely mean that the team’s free agency signing paid off and that the Giants would only need to fill a hole or two in the offseason to be right in the World Series picture next season.
Worst Case — Snell regresses, looks overpaid
The worst-case scenario is that the Giants miss the playoffs. Part of that would be that the team overpaid on its free agents Jorge Soler, Matt Chapman and Blake Snell. I believe Chapman and Snell’s contracts are both yearly with options built-in, so even if they both underperform, the franchise could get out of it next year. But, that still wouldn’t make it look bad this year the money that was invested in them.
Seattle Mariners
Best Case — Make the Playoffs
The Mariners will have to compete with the Rangers and Astros in the AL West. Seattle was only two games behind Texas, which ended up winning the World Series. Luis Castillo will lead the rotation, finish toward the top of the AL Cy Young voting, and be helped out by Julio Rodriguez leading the lineup, they could take a Wild Card spot.
Worst Case — Miss the Playoffs
Seattle’s worst-case scenario is that they miss the playoffs. The Mariners are favored to make the playoffs (-155), but if the rotation struggles behind Castillo and the batting order struggles, they could miss the postseason entirely.
St. Louis Cardinals
Best Case — Win the NL Central
St. Louis is trying to go from last to first after a disappointing 2023. They have a veteran pitching staff, and despite Sonny Gray starting the season on the injured list, should be set up to compete. A resurgent year from Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado would help them not only make the playoffs but could see St. Louis winning the division.
Worst Case — Finish in fourth in the division or worse
The NL Central should be competitive this year, but what if 2023 wasn’t a fluke for the Cardinals? If Goldy and Arenado are getting hit by Father Time and the veteran staff of the rotation doesn’t perform as they are expected to, the Cardinals could not only miss the playoffs but finish toward the bottom of the for the second year in a row.
Tampa Bay Rays
Best Case — Playoff berth
These are pretty standard best- and worst-case scenarios for the Rays. With the rotation, they don’t look like they are going to hoist a World Series banner this year, but making the playoffs coming out of the AL East would be a great result for their season.
Worst Case — Miss the playoffs
Tampa Bay will be without ace Shane McClanahan for most, if not all, of the regular season, and the team traded away Tyler Glasnow. If Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale and the rest of the rotation struggle, the Rays could turn their attention to 2025 early. They aren’t expected to win the division and are likely to be competing for one of three Wild Card spots at best.
Texas Rangers
Best Case — Anotha 1
Texas had a very “why not us?’ feel to them in 2023, and that feeling is back in 2024. They have really good players, but the focal point isn’t on their billion-dollar middle infield; it is on rookies Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter, who are expected to bring even more pop to the lineup. If the rotation can work through injuries at the start of the season, Texas’ best-case scenario is another World Series.
Worst Case — Miss the playoffs
One of my favorite things about baseball is that the sport has been seeing a different team win the World Series. The MLB hasn’t seen back-to-back winners of the World Series since the New York Yankees won three in a row from 1998-2000. This doesn’t bode well for Texas, which will be missing Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer from the rotation to begin the season. The rotation could struggle if Nathan Eovaldi regresses and the hole left from Jordan Montgomery’s leaving in free agency becomes noticeable.
Toronto Blue Jays
Best Case — Win the AL East
Toronto has the third-best odds to win the division this season at +400. Kevin Gausman is an AL Cy Young frontrunner, and a resurgence from Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could have the slugger in the MVP conversation. The Blue Jays’ pitching staff could determine the team’s ceiling, but Toronto could win the division if they pitch well this season and the lineup gives enough run support.
Worst Case — Miss the Playoffs
The flip side of the coin that is the team making the playoffs is that Toronto misses out. I have spent plenty of time talking about how tough the AL East is going to be, and it will be. If guys in the rotation like Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios struggle, the Blue Jays don’t have the pitching depth to make up for it, and it could cause them to miss the playoffs.
Washington Nationals
Best Case — Develop Abrams, Crews, Woods and Cavali
Washington fans have a lot to look forward to with the amount of talent they have coming up from the minors. Abrams and Woods are already at the big-league level. Cavali will be once he returns halfway through the season after Tommy John surgery. Crews is one of the league’s top prospects and is expected to get the call to the bigs at some point this year.
Worst Case — Lose 100+ games
The Nationals have a surprising amount of pop in their lineup for a team that isn’t expected to compete. Washington could struggle against southpaws, but their own rotation and bullpen are concerning. The Nats lost 91 games last season, and the increase to 100 or more would be the team’s worst-case scenario this year.