We have moved to 6-3 in this space during the NCAA Tournament after pitching a comfortable shutout yesterday. The good news we will not be under .500 after the first weekend of March Madness.
The bad news is with a rough day we could still be paying the juice. Let’s try and avoid that shall we?
Note: South Florida -2.5 over VCU in the NIT is the pick of the day, and not just because it’s my alma mater. But we won’t count that for the stats, as this is an NCAA Tournament only exercise. Just keep it in mind.
2024 March Madness picks: Sunday, March 24
Colorado +5 vs. Marquette
The Buffs have covered in six of their last seven, and KJ Simpson has hit one of the shots of the tournament already. And while you might not expect another 102-100 thriller against the Golden Eagles, who unlike the Florida Gators have at least a passing interest in defense, there are still plenty of ways for CU to score.
Eddie Lampkin will draw Oso Ighodaro on the post, who is a very solid team defender but not great in isolation or as a rebounder. That means Colorado should get enough second chances to keep this close, and Lampkin will be able to post up repeatedly.
And if it comes down to crunch time, Simpson vs. Tyler Kolek will be great theater, and whomever gets the ball last might win it. And when you’re getting more than one possession, this is all you need.
Grand Canyon vs. Alabama Over 168.5
We can make this complicated, or we can make it simple. GCU has hit the over in three-straight and six of their last nine. Bama has done the same in four straight and 11 of their last 12.
This is a big number, but who exactly is stopping anything? Bama is No. 3 in KenPom offensive efficiency, No. 7 in pace, and No. 117 in defensive efficiency. GCU is 56 in offense and on a scoring heater They averaged at least 1.1 PPP in each of their last five WAC games, and 1.06 vs. Saint Mary’s in the first round, who has the 13th-best adjusted D in the country.
This should get real pointsy real fast. The first to 96 go to the Sweet 16.
Donovan Clingan Over 8.5 rebounds (+105)
The UConn Huskies big man only played 20 minutes against Stetson and pulled down eight boards. Before that in the Big East final against Marquette, he got 31 minutes and 16 caroms.
Northwestern and Boo Buie do a lot of things well, and they don’t turn it over. But with UConn’s elite defense forcing lots of bad shots, there will be plenty for Clingan to recover in a game where it’s unlikely he doesn’t play at least in the high 20’s in terms of minutes.
Northwestern is 283rd nationally in offensive rebound rate, and 129th in defensive rebound rate. That’s not going to get it done on the glass today.