While the No. 16 vs. No. 1 upset is still the biggest you can see, there have been plenty of No. 2 seeds sent home by automatic bid conference champions since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
A total of 11 No. 15 seeds have slayed the dragon in 152 opportunities. The first was the Richmond Spiders beating the oft-tournament-underperforming Syracuse Orange in 1991.
And the last? Arizona fell as a No. 2 seed to Princeton 59-55 last season. And guess who’s back as a No. 2 seed in 2024??
We take a look at the potential victims in 2024 below.
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 South Dakota State
Probably the least likely of the bunch. ISU just overwhelms teams with their physicality and toughness, which is how you end up with the No. 1 KenPom adjusted defense in the country. It’s Houston and the Cyclones, and then everyone else when guarding.
SDSU can shoot it (36.2% from three-point range, but getting those shots off in the Summit League is a bit easier.
The Cyclones are currently a 16-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook.
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 St. Peter’s
The Vols are doing Rick Barnes Things of late, losing two in a row to close the season. Kentucky beat them in Knoxville on Senior Day, and then Mississippi State knocked them off in Nashville in the SEC quarterfinals.
But St. Peter’s doesn’t have any contributors from their miracle Elite Eight run two seasons ago, and they are 350th in the country in effective field goal percentage at just 45%. No matter how good you are defensively, and SPC is very good at 78th in KenPom adjusted D, that’s not enough to stop a long and lean Vols team that will be focused.
Tennessee is at 21.5-point favorite for a reason.
No. 2 Marquette vs. No. 15 Western Kentucky
It looks like Tyler Kolek will be back for the Golden Eagles, but even if he isn’t MU is a Top 25 team on both sides of the ball. Also they aren’t afraid of a little pressure, which is good because Western Kentucky is the No. 1 team in the country in pace at 75.2 possessions per game.
Unless WKU can force 25 turnovers and shoot the lights out, this is an awful tall order. The Hilltoppers are 14.5-point underdogs, down from 15.5 at open at DraftKings Sportsbook however.
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Long Beach State
Now it gets interesting. Long Beach State is playing with zero to lose, and since their coach Dan Monson is fired at the end of this tournament run already, why not have some fun and play free?
LBSU canned their 17th-year head man before the Big West Tournament, which his team had the audacity to go win anyway. Now new Beach AD Bobby Smitheran looks like a dope, and they aren’t afraid to rebound with Lassina Traore as statistically one of the better glass guys in the country.
They also aren’t afraid to run as they’re 27th nationally in pace. Can Arizona get tight again? The Wildcats have been spitting the bit lately, getting run out of the gym by USC on the last day of the regular season, then being up 14 on Oregon in the first half of the Pac-12 semifinals before getting blitzed 44-26 in the second half to blow it.
Also who was UofA coach Tommy Lloyd’s first boss in basketball? Dan Monson. The stars do feel a bit aligned here, even if the spread is 20.5 points for a reason.
If you had to pick one, it would be LBSU simply because we’ve seen Arizona choke away so many games this season (Washington State at home, at Oregon State), and in the Tommy Lloyd era so far. The ‘Cats have a huge ceiling, but can also play as badly as anyone for long stretches. And that’s a quality recipe for an NCAA Tournament upset.