The final weekend of the 2023-24 college basketball regular season is here, and the NCAA Tournament bracket looms large for every team remaining. While most of the 36 at-large teams have effectively locked in a spot come March, others are right on the bubble. And when every game matters, it’s just a bounce or two that can make a difference between dancing and the NIT.
We take a look at how Thursday’s games affected bubble teams’ chances to go to the 2024 NCAA Tournament. And we’ll use Joe Lunardi of ESPN.com and Shelby Mast of Bracketwag.com as our guides.
Marquette 71, Villanova 65 (OT)
This should be the final nail in Villanova’s coffin, as the Wildcats simply could not get the quality win they needed in March to get over the hump despite multiple chances. VU is now 4-11 in Quad 1 games, somehow 2-3 vs. Quad 3, and their lack of depth in the front court killed the season. The Cats will head to the NIT, but the question is will Kyle Neptune return as head coach this fall.
New Mexico 76, Boise State 66
If the Mountain West is going to get six NCAA bids, the Lobos had to have this one. UNM got 29 points from Jaelen House and 22 from Donovan Dent for a huge win they had to have. They are now 4-6 vs. Quad 1, 24-9 overall, but Joe Lunardi still has them as the first team out of the Big Dance. Mast has them heading to Dayton for the First Four, but a win over Colorado State on Friday probably eliminates all doubt.
St. John’s 91, Seton Hall 72
If you’re another Big East school, this is probably the result you wanted if there is any chance of the league getting six NCAA bids. The Johnnies continue their torrid pace of late, winning six in a row since Rick Pitino said his team wasn’t good enough. Maybe he really is that master strategist.
Lunardi says the Johnnies now avoid Dayton as the last team in that’s not in the First Four, but Mast has them as the best team heading to central Ohio early next week. But a win over UConn on Friday of course eliminates any shred of doubt about their status.
Michigan State 77, Minnesota 67
It may feel uncomfortable to put in an MSU team that’s just 19-13, 4-8 vs. Quad 1, and now 6-5 now vs. Quad 2 after AJ Hoggard’s 17 points and six assists to lead the Spartans today. But both Lunardi and Mast have them in the Tournament and not heading to Dayton as of now.
A win over Purdue tomorrow solidifies that status of course. But it’s not what Tom Izzo did right, it’s what Sparty didn’t do wrong: MSU is 9-0 vs. Quad 3 & 4, and the lack of resume strikes is helping here.
Mississippi State 70, LSU 60
If the eye test matters, this MSU Bulldogs team isn’t going to do so hot. And at 3-8 vs. Quad 1 and 3-3 vs. Quad 2, there’s still a lot to be desired here. But both Lunardi and Mast have Chris Jans’ team in the Last Four Byes category, which means no Dayton. They may not be appealing, but a NET in the low 40’s and a tough schedule goes a long way with the selection committee.
Colorado 72, Utah 58
We went to this game, and if you get the chance to watch 6’11 center Eddie Lampkin in person, we strongly suggest it. Generously listed at 265 pounds, Lampkin had 17 points, 12 rebounds, and three assists as the Buffs shot 7-14 from three-point range, even better than their season-long 40.0% from downtown entering the contest.
Lunardi has them in Dayton, and Mast has them in the NIT. But they get a shot at Washington State tonight, and a win would remove any doubt about their status for Selection Sunday, and possibly even help them avoid the First Four.
Virginia 66, BC 60 (OT)
Virginia had just 63 possessions in an overtime game. They should feel great shame about this, but shame always gets sent middle in the pack line defense. The Hoos certainly look and play like a fraud, but are still going to Dayton according to both our bracketologists as of now. While they are an affront to everything you probably love about basketball, they’re also 2-7 vs. Quad 1 teams. So yes you’re eyes are not deceiving you that they might not be very good.
As a society, we really need to come together about Virginia basketball and agree that enough is enough.
Texas A&M 80, Mississippi 71
Some serotonin regulator really needs to sponsor Texas A&M basketball. After losing five straight to close out February, the Aggies have won four in a row to get themselves back into the conversation, the last two over Ole Miss.
Buzz Williams’ team can’t shoot a lick (27.7% from 3… yet somehow there’s two teams worse in D1??), but they are the best team in the nation at offensive rebounding rate (42.2%). And in March throwing it off a shot clock that’s about to expire has been working well for them.
Their NET of 47 is very borderline, but being 2-4 vs. Quad 3 teams is even worse. And yet both bracketologists have them heading to Dayton as of now.
Pitt 81, Wake Forest 69
We can officially throw dirt on Wake Forest, so maybe we call it the Curse of Filipowski? After that big win over Duke where the Blue Devils center got dinged after a court storm, Wake lost to Notre Dame (bad), Georgia Tech at home (worse!), and simply played themselves out of contention.
But now Pitt lingers, and the winners of four straight are First Four Out from both bracketologists. Considering they were nowhere to be seen two weeks ago, that’s not bad. And a win over UNC on Friday might be enough to do put them in the field.
Providence 78, Creighton 73
While the Big Three in the Big East have just been hammering everyone below them all season, the Bluejays finally relented to a bubble team in their league at MSG today.
A huge and unexpected win behind 22 points and 11 rebounds from Devin Carter puts PC at 6-8 vs. Quad 1, 3-4 vs. Quad 2, and perfect below those lines. Both bracketologists have them First Four Out still, but now there’s at least a reason to watch the Selection Show. A win over Marquette today would probably seal their bid.
Ohio State 90, Iowa 78
RIowaP, 3-9 vs. Quad 1 and a likely 60+ NET this morning ain’t gonna cut it.
But since OSU fired head coach Chris Holtmann, they’ve won six of seven and looked like an entirely new team. They get an Illinois today in the Big Ten quarterfinals that even with a win might not put them on the Dance Card, but combine it with a win over either Nebraska or Indiana in the semis, and the committee is at least going to have a decision.
They might not need to win the Big Ten Tournament, but anything short of the final is probably still not enough due to being on the lighter side of the bracket in terms of schedule strength.
