We’re almost there, everybody: After a long, cold, frustratingly slow offseason, MLB’s regular season begins on Wednesday, March 20, with the Dodgers and Padres squaring off in Seoul (the 28 other teams will get things started on Thursday, March 28). With precious little time to go until Opening Day, now is the time to start cranking up your fantasy baseball drafts — and we’re here to be your one-stop shop for all things draft prep. We just recently unveiled our top 300 overall for redraft leagues in 2024, as well as top prospects to know and full previews — plus sleepers and busts — at each position.
Here, however, we’re digging a little bit deeper, taking a look at our favorite second-year breakout candidates for the upcoming season. Adjusting to life in the Majors is hard, and often times rookies are just trying to keep their heads above water — before finally taking off in year two, fully comfortable and armed with some adjustments to make. Who might fit that bill this year? Let’s dig in.
Fantasy baseball sleepers: Second-year breakouts to target
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates
ADP: 90
Technically this will be Cruz’s fourth season of Major League action, but given that 2021 (September call-up) and 2023 (cut short due to injury) featured a combined 11 games played and 49 plate appearances, we’re still counting it. Cruz was a popular pick in these sorts of columns at this time last year, coming off a rookie season in which he hit 17 homers and stole 10 bases (albeit with a .233/.294/.450 slash line) in just 87 games. Given his 6’7 frame and ridiculous physical tools — Cruz was in the 98th percentile in sprint speed two years ago and hit the hardest ball in Statcast history — the ceiling feels like the roof here. 30-30? Sure. 40 homers? If he can generate more fly balls without shedding contact, absolutely. Something like Francisco Lindor’s 2023 campaign feels well within reach, which could make him a first-rounder next spring.
Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox
ADP: 95
For Casas, a breakout season would be as simple as repeating what he did over the second half of last year. The first baseman hit .305/.406/.590 from July 1 on, a 40-homer pace largely backed up by the underlying numbers. There is some swing and miss in his game, and Boston platooned him a bit against tougher lefties. But Casas held his own against southpaws when given the chance, and given his importance to this lineup, he figures to have a longer leash this season. Don’t expect a .300 average over the course of a full season, but if you’re looking for a poor man’s Matt Olson several rounds cheaper, look no further.
Bo Naylor, Cleveland Guardians
ADP: 227
It took forever for him to finally get the call, but once he did, Naylor showed that he belonged in the Majors, posting an .809 OPS with 11 homers and five steals in just 67 games. Prorated over 130, that’s a 20/10 pace and an easy top-10 finish at the position. Catchers who can contribute across four categories, including speed, are awfully rare, and while Naylor’s fly ball-heavy approach will likely never produce a plus batting average, there’s room for growth above the .237 mark he posted last season. He could be the heir apparent to J.T. Realmuto for fantasy purposes.
Eury Perez, Miami Marlins
ADP: 83
Last season gave us a ton of rookie pitcher breakouts, from Bobby Miller to Grayson Rodriguez to Tanner Bibee. The most impressive of the bunch, however, was Perez — with only an innings restriction keeping him from stamping himself as a true SP1 at just 20 years of age. Eury still isn’t being drafted at that price point, and you can understand why given his relative experience and the fact that he only threw 91.1 innings at the Major League level last season. But those 91.1 innings were incredible, especially considering his age; it’s a very, very rare thing to be as good as young as Perez was last season, and those are the sorts of profiles you want to bet on moving forward. Even relatively conservative estimates get him to 150-160 innings this season, and if he does hit that number, this will be the last time you draft him this cheap for the next decade.
Mason Miller, Oakland Athletics
ADP: 263
Miller appeared headed for a breakout of his own, entering the A’s rotation in early summer and turning heads with his triple-digit fastball before an elbow injury cut his season short. That injury was enough to convince Oakland to stick him in the bullpen to start the 2024 season, but no matter what role he’s ticketed for, you want this kind of electric arm on your fantasy team. The A’s have already said they’re going to ease Miller in, testing him out in a multi-inning role rather than just handing him the ninth inning. But make no mistake: This is a matter of when, not if. Miller runs it up as high as 102-103 in short bursts, and he struck out 107 in 72.2 innings of work between the Majors and Minors last year. His primary competition for the closer’s job is Lucas Erceg, who had a 4.75 ERA in 2023. Even pitching for a bad team, even if he doesn’t win the job outright until May or June, he could wind up being an elite fantasy reliever this season.
Noelvi Marte, Cincinnati Reds
ADP: 187
Marte’s range of outcomes is as wide as just about anyone’s. He could go 25/25. Or, given the glut of corner infielders jostling for playing time in Cincy, he could start slow and wind up back down in Triple-A. At this price point, though, I’m more than willing to bank on the former: Marte seems to have the inside track on the everyday third-base job, and if he does in fact win it, he might never give it back. As a 21-year-old, he combined for 14 homers and 24 steals in 127 games across Double-A, Triple-A, and the Majors last season, with pretty good quality-of-contact metrics and better-than-you’d-expect plate discipline. He’s got great speed, he’s a willing runner, he’s got prodigious raw power he’s learning to unlock as he hits the ball in the air more, and he’ll play half his games in an extreme hitter’s park. Sign me up, especially over a far more expensive option like Spencer Steer.
Kerry Carpenter, Detroit Tigers
ADP: 214
Like Casas above, Carpenter also had his own mini-breakout last season, hitting .278 with 20 home runs, six steals and a .811 OPS in just 118 games for the Tigers. Carpenter’s ceiling isn’t as high as some of the other guys on this list; he wasn’t an elite prospect, and he doesn’t have any tools that will bowl you over. But there also isn’t much that he doesn’t do pretty well — he hits the ball pretty hard, he hits the ball in the air, he makes enough contact, heck, he’ll even swipe a few bases (and could steal more, based on his strong sprint speed). Detroit might sit him against tougher lefties, but there simply aren’t enough quality bats on that roster to really make a dent in his playing time. 20-25 homers, 6-8 steals and a solid batting average feels like the floor, and that’s well worth this price.
