We’re almost there, everybody: After a long, cold, frustratingly slow offseason, MLB’s regular season begins on Wednesday, March 20, with the Dodgers and Padres squaring off in Seoul (the 28 other teams will get things started on Thursday, March 28). With precious little time to go until Opening Day, now is the time to start cranking up your fantasy baseball drafts — and we’re here to be your one-stop shop for all things draft prep. We just recently unveiled our top 300 overall for redraft leagues in 2024, as well as top prospects to know and full previews of each position. Now it’s time to get down to the nitty gritty, the stuff that really helps you win your leagues: a list of sleepers to target at every position.
Next up: first base, a position that feels like it carries a bit more intrigue than usual this year. Sure, there are your standard early-round studs, your Freddie Freemans and Matt Olsons and Bryce Harpers. But while the lower tiers are typically populated by inoffensive, “hey, maybe he could hit 30 homers and not kill my batting average” types, 2024 brings a fresh batch of players that carry some real upside if you know where to look.
Fantasy baseball sleepers: First base
Josh Naylor, Cleveland Guardians
ADP: 122
How can a player be a sleeper when they’re not too far out of the top 100 overall? Well, when he might be on the verge of superstardom. Naylor has largely flown under the radar until now, due to both the Guardians’ yawnstipating offense and the fact that he’s never played more than 122 games in any season. An oblique injury cost him 33 games last summer, but he hit .308/.354/.489 with 17 homers, 10 steals and 97 RBI around that, and he could be in for a monster 2023. These are elite plate skills we’re talking about, and he’ll pair that plus batting average with 100+ RBI from the middle of Cleveland’s order and at least a handful of steals — Naylor isn’t fast, but he wants to run, and under the current rules that’s really all it takes. The only thing holding him back from a top-25 season is the power, but his launch angle and fly-ball rate keep creeping up, and projecting 25 homers is hardly egregious.
Jeimer Candelario, Cincinnati Reds
ADP: 217
Much has been made about the corner infield logjam in Cincy, and for good reason. But while most of the attention goes to one of the hot young prospects like Noelvi Marte or Christian Encarnacion-Strand, we’re all ignoring the one guy almost guaranteed to see regular playing time: Candelario. The veteran didn’t sign a three-year deal with the Reds this winter to ride the bench, and he’s a switch hitter who holds his own against both righties and lefties. So we know he’ll be somewhere toward the middle of a dangerous lineup, and we know he’ll play half his games in the best offensive environment this side of Coors Field. Candelario doesn’t do anything exceptionally well, but he won’t kill you anywhere either — he even stole eight bases last year — and a 30-homer power spike isn’t out of the question at Great American Small Park. He’s not the sexiest pick, but he’ll rack up counting stats, chip in some steals and won’t kill your batting average.
Anthony Rizzo, New York Yankees
ADP: 255
Rizzo’s full-season numbers from 2023 don’t look great, but they also don’t tell the whole story. Rizzo was crushing the ball to start the year, slashing .304/.376/.505 with 11 homers and 32 RBI over his first 55 games. And then he collided with Fernando Tatis Jr., and the ensuing concussion — initially misdiagnosed by team doctors — wrecked everything. Rizzo clearly wasn’t right from that point on, posting a dismal .496 OPS the rest of the way. But we have a very good explanation for that dip in production, and Rizzo is now back healthy and ready to resume his position hitting right behind Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. He’s still got a swing tailor-made for the short porch at Yankee Stadium, and he could surprise with 25-30 homers and gaudy RBI totals.
Kyle Manzardo, Cleveland Guardians
ADP: 379
Cleveland has already more or less committed to starting Manzardo at Triple-A, but fear not: There’s simply not enough offensive talent on this roster to keep him down for long. Manzardo’s top-line numbers slumped a bit last season, but that can be explained away by a shoulder issue and a terribly unlucky BABIP. He began to turn it on after the trade from the Rays to the Guardians, hitting .256/.348/.590 with Columbus, and the combination of good approach/good power that made him a top prospect in Tampa is still very much here. He’s not a candidate to hit 35 homers, but 25 over a full season doesn’t seem like a stretch, and a top-50 prospect with a pretty clear path to playing time and an impressive pedigree is well worth a late-round dart throw.
Michael Busch, Chicago Cubs
ADP: 387
A first-round pick out of UNC in the 2019 draft, Busch has laid waste to the upper Minors for the last two full seasons thanks to his patient approach, plus pop and ability to pull the ball in the air — and hard. The lefty hit an eye-popping .323/.431/.618 with 27 homers in just 98 games at Triple-A last year, all while playing everywhere from third base to second base to both corner outfield spots. But the Dodgers’ loaded depth chart blocked his path to playing time, and so L.A. shipped him to the Cubs this winter. Even with Cody Bellinger back in the fold, Busch figures to get every chance to earn playing time at first base, third base, DH or some combination thereof — and he brings the kind of power potential in a good lineup that you simply don’t find very often at this stage of the draft.
