We’re almost there, everybody: After a long, cold, frustratingly slow offseason, MLB’s regular season begins on Wednesday, March 20, with the Dodgers and Padres squaring off in Seoul (the 28 other teams will get things started on Thursday, March 28). With precious little time to go until Opening Day, now is the time to start cranking up your fantasy baseball drafts — and we’re here to be your one-stop shop for all things draft prep. We just recently unveiled our top 300 overall for redraft leagues in 2024, as well as top prospects to know and full previews of each position. Now it’s time to get down to the nitty gritty, the stuff that really helps you win your leagues: a list of sleepers to target at every position.
Next up: starting pitcher, the position this series was practically made for. It can be easy to talk yourself into needing to spend big on your rotation come draft time, with so many spots to fill and such injury and performance volatility year-over-year. But that volatility is exactly why you should embrace waiting a bit — there are so many pitchers to choose from each year. If you want to pass up a five-category hitter to burn a first-round pick on Gerrit Cole or Spencer Strider, be my guest, but time and again we see cheaper pitchers come out of nowhere and expensive ones blow up in their owners’ faces. Where might some of that value be? Let’s investigate.
Fantasy baseball sleepers: Starting pitchers
Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners
ADP: 204
Woo’s still in the process of figuring out his secondary stuff, but his four-seamer is diabolical already, running a 16.3% swinging strike rate in the Majors as a rookie. Lack of feel for his sweeper and cutter left him a bit more vulnerable to left-handed batters, but this is a good pitcher in a great home park on a team with a track record of developing quality starters. It’s not hard to see Woo taking a leap in year two, and I’ll bet on a younger guy who’s already demonstrated strikeout stuff and just needs to demonstrate a bit more polish to really take off.
Kutter Crawford, Boston Red Sox
ADP: 268
Crawford was already penciled in to a rotation spot, but Lucas Giolito’s elbow injury has all but assured that Boston will need him to deliver major innings in 2024. And Crawford seems up to the task, with a legit fastball/slider combination and solid underlying metrics (3.25 expected ERA, .208 expected batting average against). Really, the only reason Crawford isn’t getting taken much higher in drafts this spring is an artificially inflated home ERA — 2.49 on the road, 6.00 at Fenway Park. Boston is a tough place to pitch, but his Fenway BABIP was also goofily high, suggesting some positive regression there. Crawford has all the tools and the opportunity to be a rock-solid mid-rotation starter, with a high-3s ERA and a K per inning.
MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals
ADP: 301
What could Gore be if he were pitching for a team that’s not the Nationals? A former all-world prospect, the lefty has iffy command but boasts really big stuff: an explosive mid-90s fastball with great shape when he elevates it, plus a big curveball and a slider he can work in against both righties and lefties. Zoom out a bit, and that sure sounds a lot like reigning NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell. It’s unclear whether Washington will really encourage Gore to lean into what he’s best at, and his command issues will always leave him without a ton of margin for error. But this is an extremely talented arm, with the 18th-best strikeout rate and 29th-best swinging-strike rate among qualified starters last year, and you should pounce if that kind of talent is available after pick 300.
Griffin Canning, Los Angeles Angels
ADP: 312
Canning was a top prospect not so long ago, tearing up the Minors before breaking into the Majors midway through the 2019 season. Then the injuries struck, and they didn’t let up for the next few years — Canning pitched just 62.2 innings in 2021, then missed the entire 2022 season. He finally made it back in 2023, and the results were pretty good all things considered: a 4.32 ERA (103 ERA+), 4.29 FIP and a 9.9 K/9. All of which is to say that we’ve yet to really see a healthy, comfortable Canning over a full season just yet. But 2023 could be the year, and the Angels will give him every opportunity to eat up innings. Canning’s fastball is dire, but he can really, really spin it, with a great slider and changeup that keep batters off-balance. The WHIP will likely be inflated a bit, but expect an above-average ERA with healthy strikeouts — and plenty more upside if it all clicks.
Trevor Rogers, Miami Marlins
ADP: 408
Last year was a lost one for Rogers. Originally placed on the injured list for a biceps strain, a partial tear in his right lat followed, eventually cutting his 2023 short after just 18 innings. But those 18 innings were solid, and it’s not so long ago that Rogers looked like a budding ace — he finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting and earned an All-Star nod back in 2021. Healthy again this spring, the lefty has emerged sitting in the mid-90s with his fastball, a great sign moving forward. The changeup and command remain as good as ever, and the park is a great one to pitch in. If Rogers can lock his slider in again — and stay healthy — the upside is obvious, and the price is basically free.