Fantasy baseball shortstop preview: Rankings, tiers, targets, top prospects and more

We’re almost there, everybody: After a long, cold, frustratingly slow offseason, MLB’s regular season begins on Wednesday, March 20, with the Dodgers and Padres squaring off in Seoul (the 28 other teams will get things started on Thursday, March 28). With precious little time to go until Opening Day, now is the time to start cranking up your fantasy baseball drafts — and we’re here to be your one-stop shop for all things draft prep. We just recently unveiled our top 300 overall for redraft leagues in 2024, as well as top prospects to know; now it’s time to start breaking things down position by position, giving you the lay of the land along with positional rankings, tiers, sleepers, busts and breakouts.

Next up: shortstop, once again the premier position for fantasy purposes. A whopping 12 different shortstops currently fall inside the top 85 in NFBC ADP, by far the most of any position besides outfield (which obviously has more spots to fill). And whatever your roster might need, shortstop can supply it, from five-category studs at the top to potential breakout candidates in the middle to pure speedsters and more. There’s a pretty good chance you address the position in the early rounds, and then double up with your MI later on — it’s nearly impossible to fade this position entirely, and if you do, you’ll be at a deficit compared to your other owners.

Shortstop tiers

Tier 1: Bobby Witt Jr., Mookie Betts, Trea Turner
Tier 2: Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager
Tier 3: Bo Bichette, Gunnar Henderson, C.J. Abrams, Matt McLain, Nico Hoerner, Oneil Cruz
Tier 4: Elly De La Cruz, Xander Bogaerts, Thairo Estrada, Anthony Volpe, Dansby Swanson
Tier 5: Ha-Seong Kim, Tommy Edman, Carlos Correa, Willy Adames, Trevor Story, Jeremy Pena, Jackson Holliday, Vaughn Grissom
Tier 6: Luis Rengifo, Maikel Garcia, J.P. Crawford, Ezequiel Tovar, Zach Neto, Jordan Lawlar, Masyn Winn,
Tier 7: Ezequiel Duran, Brice Turang, Tim Anderson, Orlando Arcia, Javier Baez, Geraldo Perdomo, Marco Luciano, Jon Berti, Amed Rosario

Shortstop sleeper

Thairo Estrada, San Francisco Giants

How much longer does Estrada have to keep putting up these types of numbers before somebody starts paying attention? Nobody really seems to buy his production over the past two seasons, but he was quietly very good again in 2023, hitting 14 homers with 23 steals and finishing as the No. 15 shortstop in roto scoring — despite playing in just 120 games. He’s unlikely to ever sniff 20 bombs, but 15 feels like the floor here thanks to a pull-side power swing, and he could make a run at 30-35 steals in a full season. The counting stats will likely be better than you think in a revamped Giants offense, and his batting average won’t hurt you either. Taken in aggregate, that’s some broad, five-category production in the middle rounds.

Shortstop breakout

Anthony Volpe, New York Yankees

Locked into playing time? Check. Power/speed combo? Check. The only thing missing for Volpe last year was the hit tool, but this was a top prospect thrust into figuring things out in an everyday role in the Majors — with an artificially low BABIP, to boot. The counting stats will be better with better health (and more Juan Soto) for this Yankees lineup, and if he can get the average up to even, say, .240, the upside here is immense.

Shortstop bust

Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds

I really hate being this guy, because De La Cruz is as fun as it gets when he’s rolling. Alas, I’m forced to fade at his current ADP: The guy just hit .191 in the second half while getting benched against left-handed pitching, and while he could make major strides as he gets used to the Majors, there are just too many red flags here to stomach spending an early-round pick. With so many five-category contributors still on the board, why not take one with far lower risk, saving the upside swings for later in the draft when the opportunity cost is lower?

Top shortstop prospects

Jackson Holliday, Baltimore Orioles

Age: 20
Minor League stats: .323 BA (477 AB), 12 HR, 24 SB, .941 OPS, 101 BB, 118 K
ETA: Opening Day

The consensus top prospect in baseball is finally on the doorstep of the Majors, and while the O’s haven’t yet committed to him as their Opening Day shortstop, it’s only a matter of time. Granted, Holliday is more floor than ceiling for fantasy — he’s unlikely to put up big power numbers and should steal 20 or so bases while contributing everywhere else — but that floor is still valuable, especially in a good lineup, and with these plate skills there could be another level he’s yet to unlock.

Jordan Lawlar, Arizona Diamondbacks
Age: 21
Minor League stats: .278 BA (417 AB), 20 HR, 36 SB, .874 OPS, 56 BB, 101 K
ETA: As early as Opening Day, likely May

Lawlar’s late-season look in the Majors was pretty ugly, but this is still a freaky athlete and top-10 prospect whose shine shouldn’t be fully tarnished by a mere 34 plate appearances. Of course, there’s a chance he simply never gets the ball in the air enough to be an impactful big-league hitter, but the tools and potential are obvious and well worth a roll of the dice given his current non-existent cost.

Jackson Merrill, San Diego Padres

Age: 20
Minor League stats: .277 BA (466 AB), 15 HR, 15 SB, .770 OPS, 35 BB, 62 K
ETA: Opening Day?

Drafted and developed as a shortstop, San Diego’s current wonky roster construction has the team considering putting him on the Opening Day roster in left field. Merrill has all the physical tools you could want, and he’s learning more and more how to use them to tap into more game power — he hit the ball in the air far more regularly down the stretch last season. If he keeps up this strong spring, he could win a starting job in a still pretty strong lineup, with real 20-20 potential over a full season.