We’re almost there, everybody: After a long, cold, frustratingly slow offseason, MLB’s regular season begins on Wednesday, March 20, with the Dodgers and Padres squaring off in Seoul (the 28 other teams will get things started on Thursday, March 28). With precious little time to go until Opening Day, now is the time to start cranking up your fantasy baseball drafts — and we’re here to be your one-stop shop for all things draft prep. We just recently unveiled our top 300 overall for redraft leagues in 2024, as well as top prospects to know and full previews — plus sleepers and busts — at each position.
Now it’s time to drill a little deeper with a look at several post-hype sleepers who could be undervalued after falling short of fantasy owners’ initial expectations. None of these are high-priority targets — they’re post-hype for a reason, after all — but often the fantasy community is too quick to give up on a player who still has the talent that made them coveted to begin with.
Fantasy baseball sleepers: Post-hype players to target
Gavin Lux, 2B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
ADP: 282
Lux was a buzzy name this time last year, only for a torn ACL to send things sideways. But he’s back healthy now, and the Dodgers seem confident enough in him as their starting shortstop this season. Whatever optimism there was around Lux this time a year ago has largely disappeared, but if reports that he added 6 mph to his bat speed at Driveline are true, there could still be breakout potential — we know he’s got the raw athleticism, even post-knee surgery, and he could be a 15-15 guy in a strong lineup available basically for free.
Brett Baty, 3B, New York Mets
ADP: 321
I’m buying back in one more time. This is a make-or-break season for Baty, a former first-round pick who struggled mightily in his first chance at laying claim to the Mets’ third base job last season (.212, .598 OPS). He’ll get one more crack at it in 2024, with very little competition for playing time after Ronny Mauricio’s knee injury. And for as bad as things have looked at the plate so far in his young MLB career, he’s consistently killed high-Minors pitching, and he remains one tweak away from unlocking the prodigious power potential that made him a top prospect in the first place. Baty’s swing is the opposite of optimized: He had a 50.2% groundball rate last season, and he doesn’t pull the ball nearly enough. This spring has been all about how to generate more pull-side fly balls, and if he figures it out, suddenly everything else snaps into place. At this price, I’m willing to take the gamble and cut bait if I’m wrong — there’s a ceiling of 30 homers and 100 RBI here.
Nick Lodolo, SP, Cincinnati Reds
ADP: 240
I was as high as anyone on Lodolo coming into 2023, largely thanks to how brilliant the former top-10 pick was in his first taste of the Majors in 2022 (3.66 ERA, 11.4 K/9 in 103.1 innings). But the big lefty suffered from awful BABIP luck over his first few starts, then suffered a leg fracture that wound up derailing his entire season. The leg is still a concern, but Lodolo is now set to start pitching in real, live games this spring, and the upside is all still very much present — he still struck out a ton of batters even when things were at their worst last year, and hopefully more of his grounders will find gloves this time around. He’s got a full four-pitch mix, his command is fine, his ground ball-heavy approach fits GABP and he’s going late enough that you can cut bait without a ton of pain if things go sideways.
Reid Detmers, SP, Los Angeles Angels
ADP: 251
Detmers entered last year with loads of hype as a former first-round pick who flashed big-time upside down the stretch of 2022 (3.04 ERA, 9.9 K/9 in his last 13 starts). Alas the lefty never seemed to get comfortable last season, posting a disappointing 4-10 record with a 4.48 ERA. But he did pitch better as the year went on, and he still struck out tons of batters (168 in 148.2 innings). There’s some early optimism that Detmers has fixed what ailed him, and guys with this sort of breaking stuff from the left side and demonstrated strikeout ability don’t fall this far in the draft very often — especially ones who are locked into a rotation spot on a team that will give him plenty of leeway.
Jeremy Pena, SS, Houston Astros
ADP: 237
Pena was on top of the world in October 2022, winning ALCS and World Series MVP honors. It seemed like he was set to make the leap in 2023, but instead he backslid across the board, with a 95 OPS+ and just 10 homers thanks to way, way too many ground balls. The good news is that we have proof that Pena can lift the ball — just look at his rookie season, when he hit 22 homers and slugged .426. He’s still just 26, and he’s revamped his stance over the offseason to try and get some of his oomph back. He’s a legitimate 20/20 candidate, with an average that won’t kill you, and he’s locked into a good lineup; that’s a bargain at this price.
Henry Davis, C/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
ADP: 281
Technically, Davis doesn’t yet have catcher eligibility for the upcoming season — he spent all of two innings behind the plate in his MLB debut last year. But he’ll check that box almost immediately in 2024, especially given Endy Rodriguez’s elbow injury over the winter, and once he does he belongs on your radar as a bargain-basement option with legitimate top-10 upside at the position. Yes, Davis struggled in his first taste of the Majors, hitting .213/.302/.351. But this guy was taken No. 1 overall for a reason, and he hit 16 homers with 13 steals in 86 games between Double-A and Triple-A over the past two years. He’ll get tons of opportunity — big at a position where volume is always a question mark — and he could contribute across four categories if things click.
