The outfield situation for fantasy baseball in 2024 could best be described as Wil E. Coyote, running right along, confident as can be … only to look down and discover that what used to be solid ground is now him plummeting to the canyon floor.
The early outfield picture is tremendous: Eight of the first 12 picks are outfielders, and another, Yordan Alvarez, could break into that group as well. You might take that to mean that you should zig where others zag, addressing some other position early and dipping back into the outfielders later. But that would be a grave, grave mistake — outfielders dry up quick, and especially with so many starting spots to fill (at least four, possibly five in some leagues), the pressure is on to establish a foundation as quickly as possible.
Top tier
Ronald Acuna, Atlanta Braves
Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners
Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros
Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
Juan Soto, New York Yankees
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros
Here they are: the nine potential first-rounders. All due respect to Bobby Witt Jr. and Freddie Freeman, it feels hard to imagine starting your fantasy team off without nabbing one of these guys early — there are just too many OF spots to fill, and too few quality names.
Acuna is the slam-dunk No. 1 pick, even with his recent meniscus scare. I have Rodriguez over Carroll, largely because of Julio’s superior power and some lingering concern over Carroll’s shoulder injury from last season. Tucker and Betts are as reliable as it gets, with a little upside too, while Tatis Jr. could be this year’s Acuna — the underrated first-rounder who goes nuclear after a year spent getting his feet back under him. The last three names are all in a sub-tier of their own due to their lack of speed, but they’re three of the best hitters in the game, and they’re worthy of their current price.
Middle class, part 1
Luis Robert, Chicago White Sox
Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves
Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays
Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers
Cody Bellinger, Chicago Cubs
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies
Nolan Jones, Colorado Rockies
Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
Josh Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jazz Chisholm Jr., Miami Marlins
Josh Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
Spencer Steer, Cincinnati Reds
George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays
Evan Carter, Texas Rangers
Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals
Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs
Teoscar Hernandez, Los Angeles Dodgers
Jackson Chourio, Milwaukee Brewers
Wyatt Langford, Texas Rangers
Immediately, we’re in “feels like a mid-rounder” territory. Robert is the only one who comes close to matching the tier above, and even he has some red flags — a terrible lineup, a sky-high K rate, a lengthy injury history. I could also be talked into Bellinger — who made real changes in 2023 that I’m buying into — and Jones as genuine power/speed studs. Broadly speaking, though, we’re in OF2 territory. Some names I like: Arozarena showed some still-untapped upside last season, Chisholm Jr. has a sky-high ceiling if he can finally stay healthy, Suzuki is a breakout year waiting to happen and Langford has been absolutely destroying the ball during spring training.
Other than that, I’m uninspired. Harris II doesn’t have the upside to support his current ADP, Garcia’s profile can be had several rounds later (like with, say, Hernandez), Yelich and Reynolds are fine and balanced but ultimately unremarkable, Lowe has platoon and injury concerns and has just one year of big-league track record, Steer is being drafted at his ceiling and Carter’s lack of power and inability to hit lefties are getting overlooked amid his prospect hype.
Middle class, part 2
Nick Castellanos, Philadelphia Phillies
Lane Thomas, Washington Nationals
Anthony Santander, Baltimore Orioles
Jorge Soler, San Francisco Giants
Cedric Mullins II, Baltimore Orioles
TJ Friedl, Cincinnati Reds
James Outman, Los Angeles Dodgers
Tommy Edman, St. Louis Cardinals
Masataka Yoshida, Boston Red Sox
Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs
Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets
Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians
Chas McCormick, Houston Astros
Lars Nootbaar, St. Louis Cardinals
Esteury Ruiz, Oakland Athletics
And with that, the party is just about over. Most of these guys can most accurately be described as “workmanlike,” meeting your needs without sinking your team but without any real upside that will get you excited to draft them. It’s worth noting that some of them also come with extreme downside — Mullins II could be a part-time player if he struggles again, Thomas came back to Earth after his scorching-hot June, Castellanos is getting older and trending in the wrong direction, and if Ruiz isn’t good enough to earn regular playing time his steals and his value will dry up instantly. It’s not all barren; Soler has prodigious power, Friedl could be a sneaky add if he can GABP his way into 15-20 homers again, McCormick has underrated power/speed potential and Nootbaar could break out. For the most part, though, you’re mostly here to just do as little harm as possible, ensuring your floor with guys like Happ, Nimmo and Yoshida who won’t kill you but are lacking in one way or another.
Sleepers
Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals
Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers
Christopher Morel, Chicago Cubs
Kerry Carpenter, Detroit Tigers
Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox
Tyler O’Neill, Boston Red Sox
Sal Frelick, Milwaukee Brewers
Jack Suwinski, Pittsburgh Pirates
Will Benson, Cincinnati Reds
Alex Kirilloff, Minnesota Twins
Parker Meadows, Detroit Tigers
Jose Siri, Tampa Bay Rays
Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox
Nelson Velazquez, Kansas City Royals
Matt Wallner, Minnesota Twins
Colton Cowser, Baltimore Orioles
Wilyer Abreu, Boston Red Sox
Four of the top five on this list — Walker, Greene, Carpenter and Duran — are worthy starters, and I was tempted to put them in the previous group. Walker has the most overall upside of the four, being the prospect who everyone was salivating over at this time a year ago, but the other three have their specialties — namely, batting average for Greene, home runs for Carpenter and stolen bases for Duran. And they all figure to bat at or near the top of their lineups, while contributing at least a little bit in every category.
Every else here is a relative Hail Mary. You’re hoping a change of scenery fixes O’Neill. You’re hoping playing time opens up sooner than later for Rafaela and Cowser. I wouldn’t say any of these are high-probability bets, but even so, my favorites to draft from the Hail Marys are Frelick (for batting average and speed) and Wallner (for power).
Category helpers
Runs: Nimmo, Kwan, Greene, Duran, Meadows
Homers: Hernandez, Soler, Morel
RBI: Santander, Hernandez, Soler, Marcell Ozuna
Steals: Duran, Mullins, Starling Marte, Friedl, Willi Castro, Jose Siri, Meadows, Jake Fraley, Will Benson
Average: Jung Hoo Lee, Yoshida, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Kwan
