Another fantasy baseball draft season, another round of me pleading with anyone who will listen: Do not be afraid to wait on drafting starting pitchers. On one level, I understand it; starters are something like the running backs of the fantasy game, the backbones of every roster, and it’s only natural that people will get antsy about filling their slots before the music stops. But how many times do we have to learn this lesson? There are so many starters to choose from — especially now, when rule changes have conspired to turn run prevention into a weighted random number generator and the line separating the middle class from the tiers above and below it are as thin as ever.
If you want to pass up a five-category hitter to burn a first-round pick on Gerrit Cole or Spencer Strider, be my guest, but time and again we see cheaper pitchers come out of nowhere and expensive ones blow up in their owners’ faces. How might you approach your rotation instead? Let’s dig in.
Top tier
Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves
Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
Corbin Burnes, Baltimore Orioles
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays
Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners
George Kirby, Seattle Mariners
Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers
Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks
Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
I likely won’t have any of the top five names here on a single team of mine this season, and I’m okay with that. The opportunity cost is just too great, and starting pitchers too volatile — every year, some big names flop while some unknowns deliver title-winning seasons. I’d rather wait until, say, pick 50 or so, securing a solid offensive foundation and then pivoting and drafting someone like Castillo or Lopez. The gap between their production and, say, Cole is far less than the gap in production between a fourth-round bat and a second-round bat.
For me, Yamamoto and Skubal are the most interesting names here, guys who have genuine SP1 upside if it all comes together. Of course, there’s also some risk with both — though more with Skubal than Yamamoto, in my opinion — but the upside is obvious. Beyond that, I’m looking for one name from the back end of this tier, preferably someone who will deliver at least a strikeout per inning and has a track record of limiting baserunners (more important than ever under the new rules).
Upper-middle class
Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers
Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
Jesus Luzardo, Miami Marlins
Framber Valdez, Houston Astros
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
Tyler Glasnow, Los Angeles Dodgers
Blake Snell, San Diego Padres
Max Fried, Atlanta Braves
Zach Eflin, Tampa Bay Rays
Eury Perez, Miami Marlins
Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins
Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles
Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals
Bobby Miller, Los Angeles Dodgers
Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians
Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox
Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals
Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres
Here’s where we really make our hay. There are plenty of landmines to avoid in this tier — I’m steering clear of Valdez, Nola, Glasnow and Snell at their prices, and Fried’s injury history does make me slightly leery. (Valdez and Nola I just don’t trust, Snell is too volatile and Glasnow has the talent but likely will get treated with kid’s gloves.) But there are also pitchers who could win you your league this season: Perez is going to be an SP1 for the next decade, while Rodriguez, Miller and Ragans seem primed to make leaps of their own. I’m buying back in on Cease now that his price has lowered; like Snell, another guy with big stuff and little command, I want him when the market is low and will pass when the market is high. I’m also buying into a bounce-back from Joe Ryan, who has a lights-out fastball that will likely always lead to homer problems but who’s also due for some positive regression this season.
Middle class, part 1
Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers
Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds
Justin Verlander, Houston Astros
Braxton Garrett, Miami Marlins
Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks
Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins
Bryce Miller, Seattle Mariners
Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks
Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners
Ryan Pepiot, Tampa Bay Rays
Michael King, San Diego Padres
Nick Pivetta, Boston Red Sox
Carlos Rodon, New York Yankees
Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves
Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians
Seth Lugo, Kansas City Royals
Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies
This is part of the Great Middle Class at the position, but the thing that separates these guys from the tier below them is a glimmer of upside. Buehler and Verlander I’m likely passing on at their prices due to injury concern, and King feels tough to buy into given that we have no idea whether he can hold up over a full season’s worth of work. Outside of that, though, I’m buying lots of these guys — Garrett has great command and a great home park, Woo is among my favorite second-year breakouts, Brown got terribly unlucky last season and has the stuff to be a frontline guy, Ober consistently outperforms projections and Pepiot could shine in the Tampa pitching factory. You can make compelling buy-low cases for both Rodon and Sale, and heck, even guys like Lugo and Sanchez, though unremarkable, are locked into rotation spots and should return mid-rotation value.
Middle class, part 2
Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays
Kodai Senga, New York Mets
Jordan Montgomery, free agent
Jose Berrios, Toronto Blue Jays
Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres
Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays
Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers
Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves
Aaron Civale, Tampa Bay Rays
Cristian Javier, Houston Astros
Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians
Max Scherzer, Texas Rangers
Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds
Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs
Nestor Cortes, New York Yankees
Triston McKenzie, Cleveland Guardians
John Means, Baltimore Orioles
Kenta Maeda, Detroit Tigers
Marcus Stroman, New York Yankees
Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox
Dean Kremer, Baltimore Orioles
Yusei Kikuchi, Toronto Blue Jays
Jon Gray, Texas Rangers
Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals
Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs
I’m not out on these pitchers, necessarily, but they are less exciting to me — with some exceptions. Lodolo is worth a flier to see if he’s finally back healthy — his upside is as high as anyone’s — and Imanaga feels very boom-or-bust. I also think people are sleeping on Cortes, who had his 2023 season waylaid by injury but is throwing the ball well this spring and has been a quality starter in the past on a good team. Generally speaking, though, this tier is full of older guys who I’m not confident will hold up and boring profiles that don’t provide enough strikeouts for the juice to be worth the squeeze.
Sleepers
Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays
Edward Cabrera, Miami Marlins
Kutter Crawford, Boston Red Sox
Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds
Reese Olson, Detroit Tigers
Chris Paddack, Minnesota Twins
Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels
Griffin Canning, Los Angeles Angels
Kyle Harrison, San Francisco Giants
Luis Severino, New York Mets
MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals
Trevor Rogers, Miami Marlins
Emmet Sheehan, Los Angeles Angels
Erick Fedde, Chicago White Sox
Frankie Montas, Cincinnati Reds
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
Joe Boyle, Oakland Athletics
Sawyer Gipson-Long, Detroit Tigers
Now we’re having some fun. The beauty of the starting pitcher position is that you can manage it on a start-by-start basis — add a guy, or take a late flier on him, then watch him in his first start and go from there. There will always be names to stream on the waiver wire — if nothing else, this article is proof of that — and unlike position players you’re reluctant to let go of, it won’t sink your roster for weeks or months at a time. Cabrera has massive stuff and is slowly making command gains, Canning and Detmers will get all the work they can handle and have shown strikeout upside, Harrison gets an ideal pitcher’s park and a solid rotation spot, Rogers was a budding star just two years ago and is finally healthy, Gore is an excellent post-hype sleeper and Fedde looked like a totally different pitcher while dominating in Korea last year. Happy hunting.
