First base finds itself at something of a crossroads. Time was that they were fantasy kings, the primary sources of power for your rosters. But now, as steals have spiked, players who offer at least some speed are all the more essential. And once again, they’re most prevalent in the middle infield and outfield.
So where does that leave the cold corner? That all depends on your perspective, really. There is, once again, a surplus of power here — at no position can you wait longer and still find a 25-homer, fine-average profile. And a lack of big-time speed means that you won’t find any at the very top of drafts. Don’t write them off in the first or second round entirely, however: There are only so many five-category studs available, and once they’re gone, there are several first basemen who stand out for their ability to contribute huge quantities of everything else. Let’s dive in.
Top tier
Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
Pete Alonso, New York Mets
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
Cody Bellinger, Chicago Cubs
Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
Again, you’re not going to put these guys ahead of, say, Corbin Carroll or Fernando Tatis Jr. — the lack of stolen-base upside is just too prohibitive. But if you have a pick in the late first/early second, a lot of these guys start making sense. Harper should be back to his old self a year removed from Tommy John, even if he doesn’t run like he used to. He and Freeman will at least contribute some speed, while producing big numbers elsewhere in the middle of good lineups; they’re a worthy fallback after the five-category guys go off the board.
As are Olson and Alonso, even if they get there differently. They’re zeroes in speed, but they compensate for that by being the two most slam-dunk power sources this side of Aaron Judge — with huge counting stats to boot. There are more sources of steals than ever, while guys with legit 50-homer power are rarer than ever. I’m happy to take either one of them at their current cost and target speed in the ensuing rounds; once you get out of the first, it’s all about making tradeoffs.
If there are two guys I’m fading here, it’s Guerrero Jr. and Goldschmidt. The former has put up two disappointing seasons in a row after his 2021 breakout, and while he’s got the talent to be a monster, I’m not willing to buy in again at this price — especially given that his batted-ball profile doesn’t lend itself to the sort of power we need from a stud first baseman. Goldschmidt, meanwhile, will still chip in a few steals, but he showed real signs of age down the stretch last year and 2024 could be the year the bottom falls out.
Middle class
Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks
Spencer Steer, Cincinnati Reds
Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox
Yandy Diaz, Tampa Bay Rays
Josh Naylor, Cleveland Guardians
Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers
Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies
Nathaniel Lowe, Texas Rangers
Isaac Paredes, Tampa Bay Rays
Rhys Hoskins, Milwaukee Brewers
Justin Turner, Toronto Blue Jays
Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles
A lot of these guys are all floor, no ceiling — there’s value to them late enough in drafts, but for the most part, you know exactly what you’re going to get. Walker is older than you think, and his lack of track record and iffy batted-ball trends have me fading him at his price (same with Steer, who’s being drafted at his ceiling.)
There are a few here I’m actively targeting as starters if I miss out (or pass on) the top tier. Casas was a monster in the second half, a performance that’s backed up by excellent quality of contact. The Red Sox figure to platoon him less after he held his own against lefties last season, and he could make a run at an Olson-type season if it all comes together. Naylor brings unusual batting average for the position and at least a handful of steals; he’s going to drive in 100+ runs over a full season, and if he continues to hit the ball in the air more, he could get to 25 homers and really take off. Lastly, there’s Torkelson, who could be the next Alonso if the strides he made in the second half were real. The power is prodigious, it’s all about tweaking his batted-ball profile.
Beyond that, guys like Paredes, Hoskins, Bohm, Lowe and even Turner have their place, depending on what you need in the middle rounds. Bohm will give you average with a little power and speed, while Paredes and Hoskins are good bets for 30 homers at prices far below that.
Sleepers
Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Cincinnati Reds
Jeimer Candelario, Cincinnati Reds
Anthony Rizzo, New York Yankees
Andrew Vaughn, Chicago White Sox
Alex Kirilloff, Minnesota Twins
Kyle Manzardo, Cleveland Guardians
First base isn’t usually the realm of sleepers, but in addition to Casas, Naylor and Torkelson above, I also like a few of the names here. I’m not sure that Pasquantino brings enough power for me to buy into, but his injury last year has knocked his price down considerably. Candelario is a fine player locked into playing in an extremely friendly hitter’s park that will goose his power numbers. Rizzo was on his way to a big-time season before a misdiagnosed concussion derailed things, while Manzardo has a wide-open path to playing time for the offensively-bereft Guardians and is among the more polished offensive prospects in the Minors. Any of those guys could serve as late starters or quality CIs, giving you multiple paths to addressing this position in drafts.
Category helpers
Runs: Diaz, Lowe, Candelario, Rizzo
Homers: Paredes, Hoskins
RBI: Hoskins, Pasquantino, Jose Abreu, Candelario, Vaughn, Lowe
Steals: N/A
Average: Naylor, Diaz, Pasquantino
