I don’t want to alarm anyone, but the catcher position is … well, I don’t want to go so far as to say good, but it’s certainly better than its been for fantasy purposes in quite some time. William Contreras, Yainer Diaz, Cal Raleigh and Jonah Heim have all graduated into legit starters. And the next wave of top prospects — Francisco Alvarez, Bo Naylor, Logan O’Hoppe, Gabriel Moreno and Luis Campusano — is hot on their heels. That’s a big infusion of offensive talent at a position usually bereft of it. But how should we respond to this newfound depth come draft time?
I’ve got the answer: Wait. No, really, wait — especially in one-catcher leagues, wait as long as you feel comfortable, then wait a couple rounds more. Paying a premium at catcher has always been a risky strategy, but with so much depth at the position now, it’s downright crayz, as you’ll see as we start digging into positional tiers.
Top tier
Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles
Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers
William Contreras, Milwaukee Brewers
J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies
Yainer Diaz, Houston Astros
Rutschman has been the clear first catcher off the board in fantasy drafts thus far. But what sets him apart isn’t prodigious power, or five-category contributions, or anything like that. He brings floor and volume — there’s very little risk involved in this profile, and he’s going to play more than just about any other catcher out there, likely at or near the top of a strong lineup.
Is that really worth paying for, though? Here are the players currently being taken directly before and after Rutschman, per average ADP: Luis Robert, Cody Bellinger and Rutschman’s Orioles teammate, Gunnar Henderson. That’s a 38/20 player, a 26/20 player and a 28/10 player. And we’re going to pass on that sort of four-/five-category production in lieu of … a guy who just went 20/1/.277? You could say the same thing about Smith, who again offers some certainty but sits more than Rutschman does and will contribute nothing in steals while putting up unexceptional (relative to other positions) power numbers. The gap in counting stats simply doesn’t seem worth what you’re giving up in opportunity cost.
You could make the argument that Realmuto or Contreras are worthier of their top-100 price tags by virtue of their five-category contributions. But Contreras stole just six bases last year, and while Realmuto continues to run, he fell off a little as a hitter last year, which raises alarm as he enters his mid-30s. If there’s a guy I’d pull the trigger on at cost from this tier, it’s probably Diaz. He’s the only one of the five who offers unique upside; it’s not hard to see a 30-homer season with a good batting average from him if everything breaks right. Of course, there’s also some risk involved in his extremely aggressive approach, and is “30 homers, no speed” as a ceiling really worth the reach?
Middle class
Salvador Perez, Royals
Sean Murphy, Braves
Cal Raleigh, Mariners
Willson Contreras, Cardinals
Gabriel Moreno, Diamondbacks
Keibert Ruiz, Nationals
Jonah Heim, Rangers
Tyler Stephenson, Reds
Compare the projections of this group to the group above, and you’ll understand what I mean about the distinctions between catcher tiers being slighter than ever. What really separates them is playing time — and the counting stats that come with it. Salvador Perez started showing his age last year, and is now squeezed at catcher, first base and DH in an improving Royals lineup. Sean Murphy has another starting-quality option, Travis d’Arnaud, breathing down his neck should he start 2024 as bad as he ended 2023. Cal Raleigh never plays against lefties. And even the guys who do have more established roles come with question marks: Jonah Heim faded badly down the stretch last year, while Gabriel Moreno’s October power surge may be fool’s gold.
Still: All of these guys are likely to hit anywhere from 15 to 20 homers with a batting average from .245 to .260, which doesn’t look all that different from the median projections of the tier above them. At cost, I prefer them to the studs, although I’d much rather take a shot on some of the guys below.
Sleepers
Francisco Alvarez, Mets
Logan O’Hoppe, Angels
Bo Naylor, Guardians
Mitch Garver, Mariners
Luis Campusano, Padres
Alejandro Kirk, Blue Jays
Ryan Jeffers, Twins
Austin Wells, Yankees
Shea Langeliers, Athletics
Alvarez has prodigious power, and he showed signs late last season of refining his plate approach to bring his batting average up to something more respectable. He could put it all together and wind up with a top-five season at the position. O’Hoppe looked like he was on his way to a breakout year before shoulder surgery, then came back in September and showed his power hadn’t gone anywhere — plus, the Angels really don’t have a better option. Bo Naylor produced at a 20/10 pace, and could be the heir apparent to Realmuto at a far cheaper price. Garver is a 30-homer candidate when he’s healthy, and should spend most of his time at DH rather than beating his body up behind the plate. Luis Campusano will bring a plus batting average and just needs a bit more fly balls in his profile to get his power up to the rest of these guys. Heck, even Kirk, Jeffers, Wells and Langeliers could put together seasons that don’t look all that different from, say, Murphy or Perez. I’d be willing to stretch a bit for Alvarez, but if he’s going, say, inside the top 150, I’ll pass and take the cheapest of the Naylor/O’Hoppe/Garver/Campusano tier.
Category helpers
Homers: Alvarez, Garver, O’Hoppe
Steals: Naylor
Average: Campusano, Kirk
