After a long, cold, frustratingly slow offseason, MLB’s regular season begins on Wednesday, March 20, with the Dodgers and Padres squaring off in Seoul (the 28 other teams will get things started on Thursday, March 28). With precious little time to go until Opening Day, now is the time to start cranking up your fantasy baseball drafts — and we’re here to be your one-stop shop for all things draft prep. We just recently unveiled our top 300 overall for redraft leagues in 2024, as well as top prospects to know, full positional previews and sleepers at every position.
Now, however, it’s time for something a little less fun: players to avoid at every position. Next up: first base, a position where we could be seeing something of a changing of the guard as fantasy stalwarts start to show their age and some young guns bring surprisingly balanced statistical contributions to a position that’s long been defined by power. Who should you be fading this spring? Let’s dive in.
Fantasy baseball busts: First base
Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
ADP: 57
To be clear, I’m not totally out on Goldschmidt; he won an MVP just 18 months ago, after all, and he’s still locked into the middle of what should be a solid Cardinals lineup. There are scenarios in which I wind up drafting him, provided the price is right. And yet: He’s 36 now, and he showed real signs of age in the second half of last season.
There was the .246 average with a .763 OPS. There was the strikeout rate that jumped from 21.8 to 25.6 percent. There was the average exit velocity that dropped from 93.0 to 88.7 mph. On top of all of that, though, the most alarming part of Goldschmidt’s late-season swoon was his inability to feast on fastballs. Bat speed is among the first things to go as a player ages, and it sure seemed like Goldschmidt had a hard time catching up to heat: A career .307 hitter with a .995 OPS against fastballs, Goldy hit just .238 with a .797 OPS against them last year, swinging and missing 10.6 percent of the time compared to the usual 8.7 percent. Again, I’m not all the way out, but there’s enough risk of the bottom falling out that I’m staying away at this price.
Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks
ADP: 90
Post-30 breakouts don’t happen often, but Walker seems to be the exception, bursting onto the fantasy scene in 2022 and mostly holding those gains last season. He’s hit 69 homers over the last two years, more than everyone but Judge, Schwarber, Olson, Alonso, Ohtani, Riley and Betts — pretty good company. But Walker’s top-line numbers last season (33 homers, .830 OPS) masked the fact that he did indeed take a fairly substantial step back in terms of batted-ball metrics. His average exit velocity, in particular, was way down, back where it was when he was just a middling part-time player in 2021. Walker’s revamped launch angle gives him a swing designed to maximize his power, but it feels like the downside far outweighs the upside — especially if he doesn’t post double-digit steals again, hardly a guarantee given his poor sprint speed. That’s a tough spot to be at inside the top 100.
Spencer Steer, Cincinnati Reds
ADP: 109
There are some factors working in Steer’s favor: multi-position eligibility, unusual speed at first base, the best home park for offense this side of Coors Field. But generally speaking, I try to avoid drafting a player at their ceiling, and if you’re taking Steer inside or just outside the top 100, it feels like that’s what you’re doing. I just don’t see a ton of further upside beyond what he did in 2023, when he hit 23 homers, stole 15 bases and slashed .271/.356/.464. His .331 expected wOBA wasn’t bad, but it’s far closer to average than other top-100 hitters, and his middling raw power and good-not-great speed suggest that it’s unreasonable to expect him to take another leap to, say, 30 homers or 20 steals. The floor is fine, but there’s really nowhere to go but down, especially considering the playing time crunch that could cut into his plate appearances.