After a long, cold, frustratingly slow offseason, MLB’s regular season begins on Wednesday, March 20, with the Dodgers and Padres squaring off in Seoul (the 28 other teams will get things started on Thursday, March 28). With precious little time to go until Opening Day, now is the time to start cranking up your fantasy baseball drafts — and we’re here to be your one-stop shop for all things draft prep. We just recently unveiled our top 300 overall for redraft leagues in 2024, as well as top prospects to know, full positional previews and sleepers at every position.
Now, however, it’s time for something a little less fun: players to avoid at every position. We begin with catcher, a position whose newfound depth makes it even easier to fade the priciest options. Punting on top catchers was a recommended strategy even when there was less production available later on in drafts — really, you’re going to spend a top-50 or top-75 pick on a guy who’s going to hit 20 homers and steal three bases? Now, though, it’s downright inexcusable. So who are we fading this draft season? Let’s dig in.
Fantasy baseball busts: Catcher
Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles
ADP: 48
Before you start screaming at me, please know that this is in no way an indictment of Rutschman as a baseball player. He’s tremendous, and he’ll continue to rack up MVP votes in Baltimore for years to come. This is entirely about his fantasy production, and how that production relates to his current draft price. Here are the players currently being taken directly before and after Rutschman, per average ADP: Luis Robert, Cody Bellinger and Rutschman’s Orioles teammate, Gunnar Henderson. That’s a 38/20 player, a 26/20 player and a 28/10 player. And we’re going to pass on that sort of four-/five-category production in lieu of … a guy who just went 20/1/.277? Yes, Rutschman will be in the lineup just about every day, accruing counting stats in the middle of a good lineup, and that sort of volume is valuable at the catcher position. But compare those numbers to, say, Keibert Ruiz, who just went 18/1/.260 and is currently being taken outside the top 300. Rutschman is a better player, in both real life and fantasy. But he is nearly 250 picks better? This is early enough in drafts where you’re passing on an ace or a stud hitter, and I just can’t get there.
Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals
ADP: 139
Now we’re on to a player I’m fading not because of any structural reasons, but just because I think he’s in decline. Perez is about to turn 34, and has been a full-time catcher since breaking into the Majors back in 2011. It’s natural for wear and tear to set in after that many years behind the plate, and sure enough, 2023 saw steep drops in his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and isolated power (basically, slugging percentage minus batting average, an indication of the damage a hitter is doing at the plate).
Without his typical pop, Perez is going to need vintage volume in order to make good on this draft price — and for the first time in a long time, I think he could get squeezed in K.C. Perez made only 90 starts at catcher last year; his 50 starts at some position other than catcher (29 at DH and 21 at first base) were by far his most ever. The Royals clearly want to ease his burden behind the plate in favor of Freddy Fermin, but where might he make up those lost starts? Vinnie Pasquantino is back as the everyday first baseman, and Nelson Velazquez figures to put pressure on his at-bats at DH. Even setting aside injury risk, Perez could wind up playing 110 or 120 games rather than 140, and he doesn’t have the bat to make that work anymore.
Gabriel Moreno, Arizona Diamondbacks
ADP: 198
Much of Moreno’s ADP inflation seems the result of his star turn in Arizona’s run to the World Series last October. But if you draft him expecting that player, you’re likely to be disappointed — especially in the power category, where he hit just seven homers last year. Yes, six of those came in the second half, but his SLG was actually lower than it was in the first half; given that he doesn’t hit the ball especially hard or in the air all that often, that seems more like a fluke of fly-ball luck than anything. He’s unlikely to make much of a dent in either homers or steals, and that puts a lot of pressure on his batting average — if he hits .284 again, he’ll be a starting-caliber catcher, but the floor here is far lower than that without the kind of upside to make it worth your while.
